River Flood Warning 58, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

UPDATE...DELAYED INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH.
ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
ONLY MENTIONED IT OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES
AND THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
TO GRIDS IN REST OF FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.

RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.

FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.

WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015

FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY EXACERBATE
AN EXISTING HYDROLOGIC ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF UPDATE/
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH KIND AT THE MOMENT...BUT RADAR
SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE IS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER AT KIND...SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
STARTING AT 15Z. STILL WATCHING ON DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDER
AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MADE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS LATER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR INITIALLY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL MERIT LITTLE MORE
THAN A VICINITY MENTION...WILL INCLUDE THUNDER EXPLICITLY BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS PUSHING 30KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO GUSTINESS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PER VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 45 TO 50KT WINDS
JUST 2KFT OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/50

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
410 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-031000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-
410 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

TIMING: SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...SOME HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS
AND A FEW SEVERE ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR FEEDS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND VARIOUS
UPPER DISTURBANCES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL IF THEY COULD BE SEVERE...BUT LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH
ANY STORM.

DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING NEXT MONDAY AS A
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ060>065-067>072-031000-
SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-
MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
410 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...HEAVY
RAIN...FLOODING AND LIGHTNING.

TIMING: SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...SOME HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS
AND A FEW SEVERE ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR FEEDS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND VARIOUS
UPPER DISTURBANCES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL IF THEY COULD BE SEVERE...BUT LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH
ANY STORM.

DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE STARTING NEXT MONDAY AS A ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 AM EDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     HAIL             N TERRE HAUTE           39.47N  87.38W
04/02/2015  E0.25 INCH       VIGO               IN   PUBLIC

            VERY SMALL HAIL LASTED ABOUT 2 MINUTES.

&&

MRD