Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
131 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH
OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR AHEAD OF AREA OF CONVECTION IN LOWER
MICHIGAN HEADING INTO INDIANA/OHIO. BETTER DYNAMICS/INTERACTION
WITH UPR JETS DOES REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...AND LOCAL REGION IS MORE
STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECTING SOME WEAKENING AS THE
SYSTEM GETS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT STILL HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 07Z-12Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SHEARING OUT. SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.50" WITH CAPE VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 3000 TO
4500 J/KG. THE NAM AGAIN IS SHOWING HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND THINK
TRUE VALUES WILL BE FAVORING MORE OF THE GFS. SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KTS AND LAPSE RATES LOOK DRY ADIABATIC UP TO
850 MB. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE SPC HAS PUT THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE REST OF THE AREA IS IN A
MARGINAL RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

A COUPLE OF THINGS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE JUST OUT OF PHASE
ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST
OVER THE AREA WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST EAST OF
THE CWA. A RRQ WILL ALSO SETUP OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH
RES MODELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE CATCHING ON TO SOME OF THIS. LATEST
NCEP AND NSSL WRF SHOWS BEST CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. EVEN
THE NAM WITH HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES OVER THE AREA FAVORS THE
EASTERN AREA OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED
ABOVE... SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE
SEVERE. BEST COVERAGE DOES APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE CWA.

BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO BRING AN END TO THE RAIN.
PWATS ALSO FALL QUICKLY TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AN INCH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT
ONLY TO HANG UP AROUND THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE STALLED OUT ALONG/NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER DURING THE MID-WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY /WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT/ FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAD A SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED QPF FURTHER
SOUTH BUT LATEST 12Z RUN HAS TRENDED NORTH. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
VARYING SOLUTIONS...BUT FEEL THE NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
INTO THE CWA TO REFLECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME. AM STARTING TO BECOME CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. AS WE GET CLOSER...WILL HAVE TO PINPOINT
DETAILS INCLUDING TRACK/GREATEST TIMING IMPACT FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND TRACK OF AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY MAY BE PUSHED FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY...AND THE BRUNT OF A SHORTWAVE ALSO OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTH. BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ON FRIDAY.

FAVORED DRY FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN INDIANA.
THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT DAYTON AND
COLUMBUS...AND A THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AS WELL.
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST...AND WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST NEAR THE TIME OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS ALSO WHEN
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT
RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS THAT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS
WILL BE CERTAIN TO BE AFFECTED.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HATZOS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
226 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

OHZ026-035-030700-
HARDIN OH-AUGLAIZE OH-
226 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HARDIN AND NORTHEASTERN
AUGLAIZE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM EDT...

AT 225 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ADA TO NEAR FORT SHAWNEE...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAPAKONETA...KENTON...ADA...FORT SHAWNEE...FORT SHAWNEE...
CRIDERSVILLE...CRIDERSVILLE...FOREST...DUNKIRK...ALGER...
WAYNESFIELD...BLANCHARD...MCGUFFEY...BUCKLAND...UNIOPOLIS...
PATTERSON...HEPBURN...PFEIFFER AND HUNTERSVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES I-75 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 111 AND 118.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4070 8350 4070 8344 4069 8344 4069 8342
      4062 8342 4055 8422 4068 8432 4069 8422
      4066 8422 4066 8411 4064 8411 4065 8388
      4082 8388 4082 8351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0625Z 289DEG 49KT 4085 8377 4071 8424

HATZOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
249 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

OHZ026-034-035-043-044-030715-
HARDIN OH-SHELBY OH-LOGAN OH-MERCER OH-AUGLAIZE OH-
249 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HARDIN...
NORTHERN SHELBY...NORTHERN LOGAN...SOUTHEASTERN MERCER AND AUGLAIZE
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM EDT...

AT 248 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WAYNESFIELD TO CELINA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLEFONTAINE...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...ST. MARYS...KENTON...
COLDWATER...FORT SHAWNEE...FORT SHAWNEE...NEW BREMEN...MINSTER...
CRIDERSVILLE...CRIDERSVILLE...ANNA...JACKSON CENTER...RUSSELLS
POINT...BOTKINS...LAKEVIEW...NEW KNOXVILLE...WAYNESFIELD AND BELLE
CENTER.

THIS INCLUDES I-75 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 96 AND 118.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4060 8350 4040 8362 4033 8417 4038 8458
      4062 8469 4066 8422 4066 8411 4064 8411
      4065 8388 4069 8388 4070 8370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0648Z 314DEG 35KT 4059 8395 4054 8457

HATZOS