Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
329 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DRY
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING WET
CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING FROM CVG (17Z) AND
THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CAP IN PLACE AT 850MB. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALSO APPEARS TO BE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE REMAINS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAP THOUGH. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE
FORECASTING CAPE VALUES AROUND 2800 J/KG. NAM IS SHOWING VALUES
AROUND 4000 J/KG. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2500 J/KG. GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED SOME OF A CAP IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED JUST NORTH OF AN
INDIANAPOLIS TO WAPAKONETA LINE AND WILL PROVIDE THE SOURCE OF
LIFT AND THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE CAP IS ABLE TO BE MODIFIED. THERE IS
ALSO SOME STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL SUPPORT
TITLED UPDRAFTS AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY MORNING LEFTOVER RAIN WILL BE EXITING OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL THEN BE
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PWATS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE
FORECASTED TO FALL NEAR 0.75" BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE
QUEBEC/ ONTARIO BORDER WITH SOUTHWEST OHIO FALLING IN THE
COVERGENT REGION OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FORECASTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 DEGREEES C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WILL ALSO REMAIN
STALLED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE NAM PUSHES THE
FRONT SLOWLY NORTH A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND EURO AND
THEREFORE BRINGS IN RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY SOONER THAN THE GFS AND
EURO. GIVEN THE LOW PWAT AIR HAVE LEANED TOWARDS WEDNESDAY BEING
DRY AS PER THE EURO AND GFS.

POPS WILL THEN QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE AT
500 MB APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PWATS ALSO START TO QUICKLY
INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
AT 12Z. GFS/NAM SUGGEST LIFT MAY ALREADY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME...WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO
LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT /LINKED TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/ MAY ALLOW THE
FRONT TO LIFT SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. AM NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND THIS
WILL HELP DETERMINE IF ANY PORTION OF THE CWA /SOUTHERN?/ COULD
EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER. FOR NOW...FORECAST REFLECTS BOUNDARY
LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING DURING THE THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

AS THE WAVE DEPARTS...FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. WILL ALLOW POPS TO LOWER FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE AREA ON THE NEW DAY 7
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE FRONT. SHORT WAVE FORCING IS
SOMEWHAT WEAK...AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT YET FORMED. THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY. KEPT VCTS AT
MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AMEND IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OCCURS.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST. WENT WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN BR AT LUK TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
323 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

OHZ026-034-035-043>046-041930-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION-DELAWARE-
323 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY... A SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-041930-
WAYNE-FAYETTE-UNION-FRANKLIN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-
CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-
ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-DARKE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-LICKING-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-
ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
323 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND
WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD REACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY... A SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>