Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
701 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING...STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT HAS
CONTINUE EAST INTO CENTRAL OHIO. NEXT WAVE OF STORMS IS HEADING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. APPEARS THAT MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PARAMETERS STILL LOOK REASONABLY
FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES. CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO DIMINISH IN THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NON DIURNAL TONIGHT...STAYING STEADY OR
RISING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TONIGHT BEFORE FALLING OFF AT
THE END. A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD EXIST AT THE END OF
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE NW COUNTIES IN THE MID 40S AND THE UPPER
50S IN THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OTHER THAN A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW MORNING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY. A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST AND
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT IS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS
A WIDE RANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IN HOW QUICKLY THE PCPN RETURNS INTO THE FA. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN KEEP THE FA DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN IN NRN KY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN THEN LIFT
THE PCPN OVER THE FA FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM KEEP IT SOUTH
OF THE REGION. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT IS THE
MOST CONSISTENT...DID ADD A CHANCE OF PCPN IN THE SOUTH TO COVER
THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.

ANOTHER WARM DECEMBER DAY IS FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE THREATENED AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A COUPLE ROBUST SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THANKS TO A 40 TO
50 KT LLJ ADVECTING IN UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS. GIVEN THAT
THE AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE
FRONT...EXPECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. PWATS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA. NAEFS PWAT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WITHIN THE ILN CWA ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED 3 SIGMAS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL ALSO
FALL WITHIN THE NAEFS MAXIMUM PWAT PERCENTILES FOR LATE
DECEMBER...NEEDLESS TO SAY A VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE SIGNAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ILN CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND DROP BACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
MUCAPES WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF THUNDER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND LATER ON SOME RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE.

MUCH COLDER /BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL/ AND DRIER AIR WILL STREAM IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM AND
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS THE GFS/ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON MONDAY HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEEING
VERY LITTLE IF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEN GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN A BROAD 925 MB TEMP ANOMALY
ABOVE 2 SIGMAS SITTING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 60S NORTH AND NEAR 70 IN THE
SOUTH. WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BUT STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING WINDS GUSTS AND
POTENTIALLY IFR VISIBILITIES. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH IT APPEARS
THAT LOWER CLOUDS WILL SCATTER ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR.
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE RAIN. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AND WEAKEN AFTER 06Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
BACK WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS.

OUTLOOK... MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
431 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-242145-
WAYNE-FAYETTE-UNION-FRANKLIN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-
CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-
ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
431 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND
WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE
PRIMARY EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL PERIODS OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

OHZ045-046-054>056-240030-
LICKING OH-FRANKLIN OH-UNION OH-MADISON OH-DELAWARE OH-
640 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
LICKING...FRANKLIN...EASTERN UNION...NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND
DELAWARE COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 730 PM EST...

AT 640 PM EST...RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR RICHWOOD TO NEAR PLAIN CITY TO NEAR WEST JEFFERSON...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...DUBLIN...WESTERVILLE...REYNOLDSBURG...GROVE CITY...
DELAWARE...UPPER ARLINGTON...GAHANNA...HILLIARD...WORTHINGTON...
BEXLEY...JEFFERSON...PATASKALA...POWELL...JOHNSTOWN...SUNBURY...PLAIN
CITY...WEST JEFFERSON...ASHLEY AND MINERVA PARK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 I-70 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 82 AND 111...AND NEAR MILE MARKER
114.
 I-71 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 103 AND 138.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4044 8325 4043 8302 4042 8301 4041 8293
      4036 8293 4035 8275 4028 8275 4027 8262
      3994 8276 3994 8281 3993 8281 3986 8337
      4015 8326 4047 8326 4047 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 256DEG 40KT 4040 8325 4015 8326 3992 8335

BINAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>091-094-095-240030-
OHIO IN-SWITZERLAND IN-DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-OWEN KY-CARROLL KY-
BOONE KY-GRANT KY-GALLATIN KY-
645 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST INDIANA THROUGH 730 PM...

AT 643 PM EST...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SCOTTSBURG TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BRANDENBURG...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARROLLTON...AURORA...RISING SUN...BURLINGTON...VEVAY...WARSAW...
OWENTON...DILLSBORO...KENTUCKY SPEEDWAY...PLEASANT...FRENCH...
HARTFORD...GLENCOE...FAIRVIEW...GHENT...SANDERS...SPARTA...PATRIOT...
WORTHVILLE AND PRESTONVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES I-71 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 39 AND 66.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3910 8472 3835 8482 3838 8490 3842 8488
      3843 8493 3846 8492 3843 8496 3852 8498
      3851 8503 3856 8501 3856 8506 3860 8508
      3858 8521 3872 8533 3874 8533 3874 8526
      3869 8520 3891 8520 3891 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 247DEG 63KT 3872 8559 3793 8599

BINAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
650 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW LEBANON           39.42N 84.28W
12/23/2015                   WARREN             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

SBAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
653 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TSTM WND GST     KOXD OXFORD MIAMI APT   39.50N 84.78W
12/23/2015  M59.00 MPH       BUTLER             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EATON                   39.75N 84.63W
12/23/2015                   PREBLE             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            ONE LARGE TREE KNOCKED DOWN.

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMDEN                  39.64N 84.65W
12/23/2015                   PREBLE             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE FELL ON HOUSE.

0523 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW WEST MILTON       40.01N 84.37W
12/23/2015                   MIAMI              OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            BARN DESTROYED BY WIND.

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E CAMBRIDGE CITY      39.81N 85.15W
12/23/2015                   WAYNE              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            ONE HEALTHY TREE UPROOTED

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
701 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW BELLEFONTAINE      40.29N 83.82W
12/23/2015                   LOGAN              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF TOWNSHIP RD. 30 AND
            COUNTY ROAD 18. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
716 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE NEW MADISON       39.91N 84.68W
12/23/2015                   PREBLE             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            HALF A BARN BLOWN DOWN AT MAPLE AND VICTORIA. TOP 4 FEET
            OF A 2 FOOT TREE BROKEN.

&&

SBAKER