Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1051 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF UPON ENTRY INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND SIGNS ARE THAT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MAY EVEN INTENSIFY SOME AS IT
PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CWA MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. MAIN THREAT IS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL.

SYNOPTICALLY...THERE IS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO. NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND TO IT/S SOUTH IS
WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE AND WHERE THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS. THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY DOESN/T MOVE
MUCH DURING THE DAYTIME.

THE FATE OF THIS MCS WILL HELP DETERMINE WHAT OCCURS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION/DETAILS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN IN
THE WAKE ON THIS MCS AND DIFFERENT MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING NSSL WRF-ARW MOST CLOSELY UP TO
THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS NOW PICKED UP THE
MCS SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR WRF. THERE MAY BE A BREAK LULL
IN ACTIVITY AFTER THIS MCS MOVES THROUGH ALTHOUGH THE TAIL OF IT
MAY RE-ACTIVATE SOONER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THEN
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THEN MAY FOLLOW SUIT THROUGH
EVENING. POPS/WX HAVE BEEN RE-WORKED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

HAVE LOWERED MAX BY A DEG OR TWO GIVEN LOTS OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION
BUT STILL EXPECT CWA TO RISE AOA 70 FOR MAXIMA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT A LULL OR A DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BRIEFLY
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT HOWEVER BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER WAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FA ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY EVENING AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS
THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK
INTO THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOW 60S. DECENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. WIND GUSTS WILL REACH UP AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES ON
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE WINDS PICK UP.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS
AND THE COOLER AIR MASS WORKING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. AS
WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THEN PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST. WE MAY END UP WITH THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
OUR WEST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN OUR EAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GENERALLY KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...BUT SOME COLDER READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS.

IN DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN SHOULD THEN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWERS 70S. AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...PCPN SHOULD
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT NEAR KDAY TO KCMH SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THOSE SITES VERY NEAR
THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WHICH WILL TAKE LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT. OTHERWISE VFR TO START. BUT STORMS IN ILLINOIS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS AFTER THOSE STORMS MOVE THROUGH
THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN AN ACTIVITY. SOUTH WINDS MAY GUST TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CHANCE FOR MORE
STORMS INCREASES AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUES TO OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LULL OVERNIGHT UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
WHEN YET MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER AT THIS
POINT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IT APPEARS THAT VFR WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1058 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-091000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1058 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT...THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO
BE NECESSARY ON THURSDAY.

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