Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG TO LINGER LONGER
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA NEAR AND NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA...GRADUALLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE FA.

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST ACROSS ILLINOIS. EXPECT
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK INTO THE FA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EXPECT THE
GREATEST COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. DUE TO THIS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
TODAY ACROSS THE FA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARILY THREATS.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FA TODAY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT A LULL OR A DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BRIEFLY
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT HOWEVER BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER WAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FA ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY EVENING AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS
THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK
INTO THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOW 60S. DECENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. WIND GUSTS WILL REACH UP AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES ON
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE WINDS PICK UP.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS
AND THE COOLER AIR MASS WORKING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. AS
WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THEN PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST. WE MAY END UP WITH THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
OUR WEST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN OUR EAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GENERALLY KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...BUT SOME COLDER READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS.

IN DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN SHOULD THEN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWERS 70S. AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...PCPN SHOULD
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT NEAR KDAY TO KCMH SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THOSE SITES VERY NEAR
THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WHICH WILL TAKE LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT. OTHERWISE VFR TO START. BUT STORMS IN ILLINOIS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS AFTER THOSE STORMS MOVE THROUGH
THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN AN ACTIVITY. SOUTH WINDS MAY GUST TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CHANCE FOR MORE
STORMS INCREASES AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUES TO OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LULL OVERNIGHT UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
WHEN YET MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER AT THIS
POINT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IT APPEARS THAT VFR WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
950 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-091000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
950 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT...THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
954 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

OHZ034-035-042-043-051-081430-
AUGLAIZE OH-DARKE OH-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-SHELBY OH-
954 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN
MIAMI...MERCER...NORTHERN DARKE AND AUGLAIZE COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM
EDT...

AT 951 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ROCKFORD TO NEW WESTON TO SHARPEYE...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...CELINA...ANSONIA...
GREENVILLE...VERSAILLES...MINSTER...ST. MARYS...NEW
BREMEN...COVINGTON...WAPAKONETA...BOTKINS...CRIDERSVILLE...PIQUA AND
SIDNEY.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4069 8445 4069 8423 4066 8422 4066 8411
      4065 8408 4039 8408 4010 8424 4010 8481
      4026 8481 4033 8475 4073 8474 4073 8446

BINAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1011 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

INZ066-073>075-KYZ091-OHZ070-071-077-081445-
OHIO IN-FRANKLIN IN-DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-BOONE KY-BUTLER OH-
HAMILTON OH-WARREN OH-
1011 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WARREN...
WESTERN HAMILTON...BUTLER...BOONE...RIPLEY...DEARBORN...EASTERN
FRANKLIN AND OHIO COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 AM EDT...

AT 1008 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM OXFORD TO BROOKVILLE TO HOLTON...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...OXFORD...VERSAILLES...
MILAN...BRIGHT...HARRISON...DILLSBORO...HAMILTON...HIDDEN VALLEY...
MIDDLETOWN...GREENDALE...AURORA...LAWRENCEBURG...COLERAIN TOWNSHIP...
FAIRFIELD AND FRANKLIN.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. WATER WILL POND
ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3956 8478 3957 8403 3897 8485 3900 8545
      3907 8545

BINAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1017 AM EDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     TSTM WND GST     KOXD OXFORD MIAMI APT   39.50N 84.78W
04/08/2015  M51 MPH          BUTLER             OH   AWOS

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1027 AM EDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N EATON               39.76N 84.63W
04/08/2015  M54 MPH          PREBLE             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BC

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