Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CIRRUS WAS THINNER THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS AN H5 VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER IL/IN MOVES EASTWARD. IN
ADDITION...A BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALSO
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
FOR THE REST OF TODAY IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN RECENT HI-RES MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. BUT WITH PW/S INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IN MANY AREAS...HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 04Z. SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY SO SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OR PUSH
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

DID NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST GIVEN THAT THEY WERE LOWERED
TO SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE EXPECTATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO WASH OUT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OFF. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ORIGINATING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH AND PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
SUBSEQUENTLY A LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL
REESTABLISH TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS MID
WEEK. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY.

BEST CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON PLACEMENT...AT THIS POINT THE
BETTER CHANCE SEEMS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.

INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY THE TIME THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIR MASS FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO REASSERT ITSELF NORTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS...WE WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER INTO SATURDAY BUT BY THAT TIME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY ARRIVE BY THEN OR SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY TYPICAL JULY READINGS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO PUT AN END TO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM NW-SE IN THE EVENING.

MVFR VSBYS MAY BE FOUND IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AT JUST ABOUT ANY
LOCATION BUT ATTM JUST INCLUDED IT AT KLUK IN THE RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS/KURZ
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1259 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-201000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE-UNION-FRANKLIN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-
CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-
ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1259 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND
WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN THE
HEAT INDEX RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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