Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CIRRUS WAS THINNER THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS AN H5 VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER IL/IN MOVES EASTWARD. IN
ADDITION...A BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALSO
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
FOR THE REST OF TODAY IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN RECENT HI-RES MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. BUT WITH PW/S INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IN MANY AREAS...HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 04Z. SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY SO SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OR PUSH
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

DID NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST GIVEN THAT THEY WERE LOWERED
TO SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE EXPECTATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO WASH OUT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OFF. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ORIGINATING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH AND PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
SUBSEQUENTLY A LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL
REESTABLISH TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS MID
WEEK. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY.

BEST CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON PLACEMENT...AT THIS POINT THE
BETTER CHANCE SEEMS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.

INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY THE TIME THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIR MASS FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO REASSERT ITSELF NORTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS...WE WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER INTO SATURDAY BUT BY THAT TIME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY ARRIVE BY THEN OR SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY TYPICAL JULY READINGS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO PUT AN END TO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM NW-SE IN THE EVENING.

MVFR VSBYS MAY BE FOUND IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AT JUST ABOUT ANY
LOCATION BUT ATTM JUST INCLUDED IT AT KLUK IN THE RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS/KURZ
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1259 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-201000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE-UNION-FRANKLIN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-
CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-
ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1259 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND
WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN THE
HEAT INDEX RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

INZ080-KYZ090>093-095>097-OHZ061-062-070>072-077>079-191815-
SWITZERLAND IN-KENTON KY-BOONE KY-CAMPBELL KY-GRANT KY-GALLATIN KY-
BRACKEN KY-PENDLETON KY-CLERMONT OH-HAMILTON OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
CLINTON OH-GREENE OH-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-WARREN OH-
138 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL
SWITZERLAND...KENTON...BOONE...CAMPBELL...NORTHERN GRANT...
NORTHEASTERN GALLATIN...NORTHWESTERN BRACKEN...PENDLETON...
CLERMONT...HAMILTON...CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...WESTERN CLINTON...
GREENE...NORTHWESTERN BROWN...EASTERN BUTLER AND WARREN COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 137 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHRIDGE TO CRITTENDEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CINCINNATI...DAYTON...HAMILTON...KETTERING...MIDDLETOWN...
BEAVERCREEK...FAIRFIELD...COVINGTON...HUBER HEIGHTS...FAIRBORN...
MASON...FLORENCE...XENIA...INDEPENDENCE...TROTWOOD...MIAMISBURG...
LEBANON...NORWOOD...FOREST PARK AND ERLANGER.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3876 8487 3990 8426 3977 8372 3858 8424
      3856 8439 3856 8442 3854 8442 3854 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 298DEG 22KT 3981 8419 3877 8463

HICKMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

OHZ051-191815-
MIAMI OH-
150 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MIAMI COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 149 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PLEASANT
HILL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TROY...VANDALIA...TIPP CITY...WEST MILTON...PLEASANT HILL...BROWN...
LAURA...CASSTOWN...LUDLOW FALLS...FARRINGTON...BRANDT...GRAYSON...
GINGHAMSBURG...HAVEN VIEW...CIRCLE HILL...PHONETON AND PARK LAYNE.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3989 8405 3990 8417 3992 8416 3996 8437
      3999 8443 4008 8443 4014 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 272DEG 29KT 4003 8438

FRANKS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
208 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

OHZ053-054-062-063-072-191845-
CLINTON OH-GREENE OH-CLARK OH-MADISON OH-FAYETTE OH-
208 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLINTON...GREENE...
SOUTH CENTRAL CLARK...SOUTHERN MADISON AND FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 245
PM EDT...

AT 208 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JAMESTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
XENIA...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...WILMINGTON...YELLOW SPRINGS...
CEDARVILLE...SABINA...JAMESTOWN...WASHINGTON...MOUNT STERLING...
JEFFERSONVILLE...BLOOMINGBURG...NEW HOLLAND...WILBERFORCE...NEW
JASPER...STAUNTON...GOOD HOPE...SOUTH SOLON...MIDWAY...BOWERSVILLE
AND PORT WILLIAM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3951 8327 3943 8334 3945 8399 3981 8395
      3979 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 276DEG 30KT 3962 8377

FRANKS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
208 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KYZ092-093-095>097-OHZ078>080-191845-
KENTON KY-CAMPBELL KY-GRANT KY-PENDLETON KY-BRACKEN KY-HIGHLAND OH-
CLERMONT OH-BROWN OH-
208 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN KENTON...
CAMPBELL...NORTHEASTERN GRANT...PENDLETON...WESTERN BRACKEN...WEST
CENTRAL HIGHLAND...CLERMONT AND NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 245
PM EDT...

AT 208 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BLANCHESTER TO 6 MILES EAST OF CRITTENDEN...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALEXANDRIA...WILLIAMSTOWN...FALMOUTH...CLARYVILLE...AMELIA...MOUNT
ORAB...BETHEL...NEW RICHMOND...WILLIAMSBURG...DRY RIDGE...BATAVIA...
FELICITY...BUTLER...WITHAMSVILLE...OWENSVILLE...HAMERSVILLE...
NEWTONSVILLE...FAYETTEVILLE...MENTOR AND MOSCOW.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3869 8466 3926 8408 3917 8377 3861 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 265DEG 29KT 3928 8399 3875 8449

HICKMAN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
237 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KYZ097-099-OHZ063-073-079>081-191900-
MASON KY-BRACKEN KY-HIGHLAND OH-ADAMS OH-BROWN OH-ROSS OH-FAYETTE OH-
237 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL MASON...
NORTHERN BRACKEN...HIGHLAND...NORTHWESTERN ADAMS...BROWN...
NORTHWESTERN ROSS AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
EDT...

AT 237 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEW VIENNA TO NEAR AUGUSTA...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILLSBORO...GREENFIELD...GEORGETOWN...MOUNT ORAB...RIPLEY...
LYNCHBURG...LEESBURG...AUGUSTA...WINCHESTER...MARSHALL...SARDINIA...
SEAMAN...BELFAST...RUSSELL...NEW MARKET...GOOD HOPE...EMERALD...
DECATUR...RUSSELLVILLE AND HAMERSVILLE.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3873 8418 3879 8414 3877 8405 3892 8403
      3922 8382 3938 8359 3944 8359 3952 8326
      3951 8315 3871 8370
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 259DEG 26KT 3937 8366 3878 8407

FRANKS