Alert archive / North Carolina / River Flood Warnings in 2015
River Flood Warning 56, NWS Wilmington, NC
NWS Wilmington, NC issued this river flood warning at Dec 24, 2015, 9:02 PM EST for Pender County, North Carolina. It took effect at Dec 27, 2015, 10:00 PM EST. It was in force for 45 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 24, 2015, 9:02 PM EST (02:02 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 27, 2015, 10:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Dec 29, 2015, 7:00 PM EST
- In force
- 45 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Wilmington, NC
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Pender County, NC
The radar
The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point N.E. Cape Fear River near Burgaw (BGWN7). The gauge peaked at 9.82 ft at Dec 30, 2015, 3:00 PM EST.
- Action stage
- 7 ft
- Minor stage
- 10 ft
- Moderate stage
- 12 ft
- Major stage
- 16 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02108566, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
980
WGUS42 KILM 250202
FLWILM
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
902 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
...The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a Flood Warning for
the following rivers in North Carolina...
Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County
Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3 affecting Bladen County
Cape Fear At Elizabethtown affecting Bladen County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to
protect life and property from the flood waters.
Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the
"Rivers and Lakes" link.
&&
NCC017-251802-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151230T0210Z/
/STPN7.2.ER.151224T0045Z.151226T0000Z.151229T1410Z.NO/
902 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3.
* until Tuesday evening.
* At 8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 51.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 55.6 feet by tomorrow
evening. The river will fall below flood stage late Tuesday morning.
&&
LAT...LON 3485 7886 3485 7875 3478 7874 3472 7865
3465 7872 3472 7882
$$
NCC017-251802-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-151229T1930Z/
/ELZN7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151227T0000Z.151229T0730Z.NO/
902 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Cape Fear At Elizabethtown.
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 30.9 feet Saturday
evening.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet...Flood waters will affect low grounds along the right
bank of the river.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 7865 3466 7852 3456 7838 3450 7847
3459 7859 3465 7872
$$
NCC017-250232-
/O.CAN.KILM.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-151225T0202Z/
/CPFN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
902 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
* At 8:45 PM Thursday the stage was 20.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Lowland flooding will occur along the riverbed.
&&
LAT...LON 3456 7838 3448 7831 3445 7820 3438 7828
3443 7840 3450 7847
$$
NCC141-251802-
/O.NEW.KILM.FL.W.0056.151228T1800Z-151230T0000Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.151228T1800Z.151228T1800Z.151229T1200Z.NO/
902 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015
The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* from Monday afternoon to Tuesday evening.
* At 8:30 PM Thursday the stage was 6.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early Monday
afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor flooding of roads in the River Bend and River
Birch subdivisions. Flooding of Croomsbridge Road begins west of the bridge
over the river.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
3444 7788 3457 7788
$$4 follow-up statements
438
WGUS82 KILM 251502
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...
Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3 affecting Bladen County NC
Cape Fear At Elizabethtown affecting Bladen County NC
Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC
Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry affecting Dillon...Horry and Marion Counties
SC
Lynches At Effingham affecting Florence County SC
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...
Lumber Near Lumberton affecting Robeson County NC
Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee affecting Marion and Florence Counties SC
Black Creek At Quinby affecting Darlington and Florence Counties SC
Black At Kingstree affecting Williamsburg County SC
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to
protect life and property from the flood waters.
Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the
"Rivers and Lakes" link.
&&
NCC017-260702-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/STPN7.2.ER.151224T0045Z.151226T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3.
* until further notice.
* At 9:00 AM Friday the stage was 53.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 55.2 feet by after midnight
tonight then begin falling.
&&
LAT...LON 3485 7886 3485 7875 3478 7874 3472 7865
3465 7872 3472 7882
$$
NCC017-260701-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-151230T1654Z/
/ELZN7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151226T1800Z.151230T0454Z.NO/
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until Wednesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Cape Fear At Elizabethtown.
* until Wednesday morning.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 30.5 feet early
tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet...Flood waters will affect low grounds along the right
bank of the river.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 7865 3466 7852 3456 7838 3450 7847
3459 7859 3465 7872
$$
NCC141-260701-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0056.151228T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.151228T0600Z.151230T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* from late Sunday night until further notice.
* At 9:30 AM Friday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Monday morning and continue to rise
to near 10.4 feet by early Wednesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road
and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions
become impassable.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
3444 7788 3457 7788
$$
NCC155-260701-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBRN7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.151225T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Lumber Near Lumberton.
* until further notice.
* At 7:00 AM Friday the stage was 18.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.4 feet by this afternoon
then begin falling.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Flood waters deepen in the Pines and Coxs Pond areas as
well as along River Road. Flood waters may affect Carthage Road. Several homes
will become isolated or inundated between the Pepsi plant and the river.
Chickenfoot Road, Hestertown Road and Noir Street will be closed.
&&
LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
3461 7907 3458 7915
$$
SCC033-051-067-260701-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0052.151225T1501Z-000000T0000Z/
/GALS1.1.ER.151225T1455Z.151229T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry.
* from this morning until further notice.
* At 9:00 AM Friday the stage was 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue to rise to
near 10.6 feet by early Tuesday afternoon. additional rises are possible
thereafter.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Flood waters will continue to rise in the Fork Retch
community located near Nichols. Flood waters will begin to affect some homes
at Fork Retch. Swampland flooding will increase.
&&
LAT...LON 3423 7921 3419 7910 3405 7920 3398 7928
3400 7938 3409 7930
$$
SCC041-067-260701-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.2.ER.151223T2225Z.151230T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee.
* until further notice.
* At 9:00 AM Friday the stage was 21.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 25.8 feet by early Wednesday
afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Flood waters will continue to affect logging operations
upstream and downstream from Pee Dee. Flooding of farmlands adjacent to the
river will worsen.
&&
LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
3385 7944 3398 7957
$$
SCC031-041-260701-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BCRS1.1.ER.151223T1545Z.151225T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Black Creek At Quinby.
* until further notice.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 14.7 feet this
afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Floodwaters enter numerous homes on Creekside Drive,
East Black Creek Road and Crooked Creek Drive.
&&
LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3423 7963
3422 7975 3428 7984
$$
SCC041-260701-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0054.151229T0100Z-000000T0000Z/
/EFFS1.2.ER.151229T0100Z.151230T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Lynches At Effingham.
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At 9:00 AM Friday the stage was 13.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Monday evening and continue to rise to
near 16.2 feet by early Wednesday morning. additional rises are possible
thereafter.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flood waters will affect several homes along the river
and isolate those residents without boats.
&&
LAT...LON 3410 7974 3396 7963 3393 7974 3398 7976
3394 7983 3403 7986
$$
SCC089-260701-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0053.151228T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/KINS1.1.ER.151228T0000Z.151229T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Black At Kingstree.
* from Sunday evening until further notice.
* At 9:00 AM Friday the stage was 10.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Sunday evening and continue to rise to
near 12.3 feet by Tuesday morning. additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flood waters will affect low lying areas along the
river especially upstream from the Highway 52 bridge.
&&
LAT...LON 3373 7984 3367 7980 3362 7974 3354 7979
3359 7987 3367 7994
$$
43911
WGUS82 KILM 260207
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
907 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...
Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3 affecting Bladen County NC
Cape Fear At Elizabethtown affecting Bladen County NC
Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC
Black Creek At Quinby affecting Darlington and Florence Counties SC
Lynches At Effingham affecting Florence County SC
Black At Kingstree affecting Williamsburg County SC
Lumber Near Lumberton affecting Robeson County NC
Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry affecting Dillon...Horry and Marion Counties
SC
Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee affecting Marion and Florence Counties SC
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to
protect life and property from the flood waters.
Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the
"Rivers and Lakes" link.
&&
NCC017-261807-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151229T0920Z/
/STPN7.2.ER.151224T0045Z.151225T2130Z.151228T2120Z.NO/
907 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until late Monday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3.
* until late Monday night.
* At 8:00 PM Friday the stage was 53.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Monday
afternoon.
* Impact...At 52.0 feet...Extensive flooding will occur along the left bank of
the river. Water levels will reach the door sill of the USGS well house.
&&
LAT...LON 3485 7886 3485 7875 3478 7874 3472 7865
3465 7872 3472 7882
$$
NCC017-261807-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-151229T0831Z/
/ELZN7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151226T1800Z.151228T2031Z.NO/
907 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until late Monday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Cape Fear At Elizabethtown.
* until late Monday night.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 29.7 feet early
tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet...Flood waters will affect low grounds along the right
bank of the river.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 7865 3466 7852 3456 7838 3450 7847
3459 7859 3465 7872
$$
NCC141-261807-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0056.151230T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.151230T1200Z.151231T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
907 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* from Wednesday morning until further notice.
* At 8:30 PM Friday the stage was 7.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Wednesday morning and continue to rise to
near 10.1 feet by Wednesday evening. additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor flooding of roads in the River Bend and River
Birch subdivisions. Flooding of Croomsbridge Road begins west of the bridge
over the river.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
3444 7788 3457 7788
$$
NCC155-261807-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBRN7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.151225T2339Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
907 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Lumber Near Lumberton.
* until further notice.
* At 6:39 PM Friday the stage was 18.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 16.6 feet by Sunday
morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Flood waters deepen in the Pines and Coxs Pond areas as
well as along River Road. Flood waters may affect Carthage Road. Several homes
will become isolated or inundated between the Pepsi plant and the river.
Chickenfoot Road, Hestertown Road and Noir Street will be closed.
&&
LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
3461 7907 3458 7915
$$
SCC033-051-067-261807-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GALS1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151231T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
907 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry.
* until further notice.
* At 8:00 PM Friday the stage was 9.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.8 feet by Wednesday
evening. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Flood waters will continue to rise in the Fork Retch
community located near Nichols. Flood waters will begin to affect some homes
at Fork Retch. Swampland flooding will increase.
&&
LAT...LON 3423 7921 3419 7910 3405 7920 3398 7928
3400 7938 3409 7930
$$
SCC041-067-261806-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.2.ER.151223T2225Z.151229T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
907 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee.
* until further notice.
* At 8:00 PM Friday the stage was 21.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.8 feet by early Tuesday
afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Flood waters will continue to affect logging operations
upstream and downstream from Pee Dee. Flooding of farmlands adjacent to the
river will worsen.
&&
LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
3385 7944 3398 7957
$$
SCC031-041-261806-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-151230T1630Z/
/BCRS1.1.ER.151223T1545Z.151225T1845Z.151230T0430Z.NO/
907 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until Wednesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Black Creek At Quinby.
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 3:00 PM Friday the stage was 14.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late
Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Floodwaters surround the majority of homes on East
Black Creek Road, Creekside Drive and Crooked Creek Drive and all residents
are isolated due to the floodwaters. Water is lapping at the foundations of
all ground level homes in these areas.
&&
LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3423 7963
3422 7975 3428 7984
$$
SCC041-261806-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0054.151228T2217Z-000000T0000Z/
/EFFS1.2.ER.151228T2217Z.151230T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
907 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Lynches At Effingham.
* from Monday afternoon until further notice.
* At 8:00 PM Friday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Monday afternoon and continue to rise to
near 16.0 feet by early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flood waters will affect several homes along the river
and isolate those residents without boats.
&&
LAT...LON 3410 7974 3396 7963 3393 7974 3398 7976
3394 7983 3403 7986
$$
SCC089-261806-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0053.151229T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/KINS1.1.ER.151229T0000Z.151230T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
907 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Black At Kingstree.
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At 8:00 PM Friday the stage was 11.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Monday evening and continue to rise to
near 12.1 feet by Tuesday evening. additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flood waters will affect low lying areas along the
river especially upstream from the Highway 52 bridge.
&&
LAT...LON 3373 7984 3367 7980 3362 7974 3354 7979
3359 7987 3367 7994
$$
04636
WGUS82 KILM 261504
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1004 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...
Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3 affecting Bladen County NC
Cape Fear At Elizabethtown affecting Bladen County NC
Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...
Lumber Near Lumberton affecting Robeson County NC
Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry affecting Dillon...Horry and Marion Counties
SC
Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee affecting Marion and Florence Counties SC
Black Creek At Quinby affecting Darlington and Florence Counties SC
Lynches At Effingham affecting Florence County SC
Black At Kingstree affecting Williamsburg County SC
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to
protect life and property from the flood waters.
Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the
"Rivers and Lakes" link.
&&
NCC017-270704-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151231T0000Z/
/STPN7.2.ER.151224T0045Z.151225T2130Z.151230T1200Z.NO/
1004 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until Wednesday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3.
* until Wednesday evening.
* At 9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 53.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Wednesday
morning.
* Impact...At 52.0 feet...Extensive flooding will occur along the left bank of
the river. Water levels will reach the door sill of the USGS well house.
&&
LAT...LON 3485 7886 3485 7875 3478 7874 3472 7865
3465 7872 3472 7882
$$
NCC017-270704-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-151230T1621Z/
/ELZN7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151226T1800Z.151230T0421Z.NO/
1004 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until Wednesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Cape Fear At Elizabethtown.
* until Wednesday morning.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 29.8 feet this
afternoon.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet...Flood waters will affect low grounds along the right
bank of the river.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 7865 3466 7852 3456 7838 3450 7847
3459 7859 3465 7872
$$
NCC141-270703-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0056.151228T0300Z-000000T0000Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.151228T0300Z.151229T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1004 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* from Sunday evening until further notice.
* At 9:30 AM Saturday the stage was 7.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late tomorrow evening and continue to
rise to near 10.6 feet by early Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road
and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions
become impassable.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
3444 7788 3457 7788
$$
NCC155-270703-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBRN7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.151225T2339Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1004 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Lumber Near Lumberton.
* until further notice.
* At 7:00 AM Saturday the stage was 18.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 16.6 feet by tomorrow
morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Flood waters deepen in the Pines and Coxs Pond areas as
well as along River Road. Flood waters may affect Carthage Road. Several homes
will become isolated or inundated between the Pepsi plant and the river.
Chickenfoot Road, Hestertown Road and Noir Street will be closed.
&&
LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
3461 7907 3458 7915
$$
SCC033-051-067-270703-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GALS1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151231T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1004 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry.
* until further notice.
* At 9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 9.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.8 feet by Wednesday
evening. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Flood waters will continue to rise in the Fork Retch
community located near Nichols. Flood waters will begin to affect some homes
at Fork Retch. Swampland flooding will increase.
&&
LAT...LON 3423 7921 3419 7910 3405 7920 3398 7928
3400 7938 3409 7930
$$
SCC041-067-270703-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.2.ER.151223T2225Z.151229T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1004 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee.
* until further notice.
* At 9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 22.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.8 feet by early Tuesday
afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Flood waters will continue to affect logging operations
upstream and downstream from Pee Dee. Flooding of farmlands adjacent to the
river will worsen.
&&
LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
3385 7944 3398 7957
$$
SCC031-041-270703-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-151230T1630Z/
/BCRS1.1.ER.151223T1545Z.151225T1845Z.151230T0430Z.NO/
1004 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Black Creek At Quinby.
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.8 feet by this afternoon.
The river will fall below flood stage late Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Floodwaters surround the majority of homes on East
Black Creek Road, Creekside Drive and Crooked Creek Drive and all residents
are isolated due to the floodwaters. Water is lapping at the foundations of
all ground level homes in these areas.
&&
LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3423 7963
3422 7975 3428 7984
$$
SCC041-270703-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0054.151228T2217Z-000000T0000Z/
/EFFS1.2.ER.151228T2217Z.151230T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1004 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Lynches At Effingham.
* from Monday afternoon until further notice.
* At 9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 13.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Monday afternoon and continue to rise to
near 16.0 feet by early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flood waters will affect several homes along the river
and isolate those residents without boats.
&&
LAT...LON 3410 7974 3396 7963 3393 7974 3398 7976
3394 7983 3403 7986
$$
SCC089-270703-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0053.151229T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/KINS1.1.ER.151229T0000Z.151230T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1004 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Black At Kingstree.
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At 9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 11.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Monday evening and continue to rise to
near 12.1 feet by Tuesday evening. additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flood waters will affect low lying areas along the
river especially upstream from the Highway 52 bridge.
&&
LAT...LON 3373 7984 3367 7980 3362 7974 3354 7979
3359 7987 3367 7994
$$
43478
WGUS82 KILM 270158
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
858 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers...
Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...
Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3 affecting Bladen County NC
Cape Fear At Elizabethtown affecting Bladen County NC
Black Creek At Quinby affecting Darlington and Florence Counties SC
Lynches At Effingham affecting Florence County SC
Black At Kingstree affecting Williamsburg County SC
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...
Lumber Near Lumberton affecting Robeson County NC
Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry affecting Dillon...Horry and Marion Counties
SC
Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee affecting Marion and Florence Counties SC
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to
protect life and property from the flood waters.
Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the
"Rivers and Lakes" link.
&&
NCC017-271758-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151231T0040Z/
/STPN7.2.ER.151224T0045Z.151225T2130Z.151230T1240Z.NO/
858 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until Wednesday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3.
* until Wednesday evening.
* At 8:00 PM Saturday the stage was 53.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Wednesday
morning.
* Impact...At 52.0 feet...Extensive flooding will occur along the left bank of
the river. Water levels will reach the door sill of the USGS well house.
&&
LAT...LON 3485 7886 3485 7875 3478 7874 3472 7865
3465 7872 3472 7882
$$
NCC017-271757-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-151230T1245Z/
/ELZN7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151227T0600Z.151230T0045Z.NO/
858 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until Wednesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Cape Fear At Elizabethtown.
* until Wednesday morning.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 29.7 feet after
midnight tonight.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet...Flood waters will affect low grounds along the right
bank of the river.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 7865 3466 7852 3456 7838 3450 7847
3459 7859 3465 7872
$$
NCC141-270228-
/O.CAN.KILM.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-151227T0158Z/
/BGWN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
858 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* At 8:30 PM Saturday the stage was 8.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 9.8 feet Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor flooding of roads in the River Bend and River
Birch subdivisions. Flooding of Croomsbridge Road begins west of the bridge
over the river.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
3444 7788 3457 7788
$$
NCC155-271757-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBRN7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.151225T2339Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
858 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Lumber Near Lumberton.
* until further notice.
* At 7:05 PM Saturday the stage was 18.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 17.4 feet by Monday
morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Flood waters deepen in the Pines and Coxs Pond areas as
well as along River Road. Flood waters may affect Carthage Road. Several homes
will become isolated or inundated between the Pepsi plant and the river.
Chickenfoot Road, Hestertown Road and Noir Street will be closed.
&&
LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
3461 7907 3458 7915
$$
SCC033-051-067-271757-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GALS1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151229T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
858 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry.
* until further notice.
* At 8:00 PM Saturday the stage was 9.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.6 feet by Tuesday morning
then begin falling.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Flood waters will continue to rise in the Fork Retch
community located near Nichols. Flood waters will begin to affect some homes
at Fork Retch. Swampland flooding will increase.
&&
LAT...LON 3423 7921 3419 7910 3405 7920 3398 7928
3400 7938 3409 7930
$$
SCC041-067-271757-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.2.ER.151223T2225Z.151230T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
858 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee.
* until further notice.
* At 8:00 PM Saturday the stage was 23.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 25.3 feet by Wednesday
morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Flood waters will continue to affect logging operations
upstream and downstream from Pee Dee. Flooding of farmlands adjacent to the
river will worsen.
&&
LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
3385 7944 3398 7957
$$
SCC031-041-271757-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-151231T1500Z/
/BCRS1.1.ER.151223T1545Z.151225T1845Z.151231T0300Z.NO/
858 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until Thursday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Black Creek At Quinby.
* until Thursday morning.
* At 4:00 PM Saturday the stage was 13.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late
Wednesday evening.
* Impact...At 13.5 feet...Floodwaters begin to affect one mobile home on
Creekside Drive and continue to rise in yards.
&&
LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3423 7963
3422 7975 3428 7984
$$
SCC041-271757-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0054.151228T2248Z-000000T0000Z/
/EFFS1.2.ER.151228T2248Z.151230T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
858 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Lynches At Effingham.
* from Monday afternoon until further notice.
* At 8:00 PM Saturday the stage was 13.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Monday afternoon and continue to rise to
near 16.3 feet by early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet...Water will enter some homes along Roundtree Road.
Several homes will be isolated along North Old Georgetown, Roundtree, and
Bengause Roads near Effingham and New Hope.
&&
LAT...LON 3410 7974 3396 7963 3393 7974 3398 7976
3394 7983 3403 7986
$$
SCC089-271757-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0053.151227T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/KINS1.1.ER.151227T1800Z.151229T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
858 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Black At Kingstree.
* from Sunday afternoon until further notice.
* At 8:00 PM Saturday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early tomorrow afternoon and continue to
rise to near 12.5 feet by early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flood waters will affect low lying areas along the
river especially upstream from the Highway 52 bridge.
&&
LAT...LON 3373 7984 3367 7980 3362 7974 3354 7979
3359 7987 3367 7994
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 24, 7:04 PM EST, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 24, 7:04 PM EST, 1 hour 58 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 704 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TO CONFRONT RECORDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SENDS A DEEP SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND WANING INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER. THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF I95 ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT AND MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS STREAMING NE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...POP VALUES WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOW. BOTH FLORENCE AND WILMINGTON BROKE THEIR PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE TODAY. WILMINGTON REACHED 79 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 78 DEGREES SET IN 1879. FLORENCE REACHED 77 DEGREES...THE OLD RECORD WAS 76 DEGREES SET IN 1988. THE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SOME SITES COULD SET RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 60S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS AROUND 70. BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS IT APPEARS THIS IS DUE TO A NARROW AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS MEETING THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. THE CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PWATS REMAIN VERY NEAR IF NOT ABOVE THE HIGHEST VALUES RECORDED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...APPROACHING 2 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATER TODAY THIS WILL START TO CHANGE THIS EVENING. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING WEST. AS IT DOES THE MID LEVELS WILL START TO DRY OUT AS SUBSIDENCE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. PWATS REMAIN OVER DOUBLE THE "NORMAL" VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT THE DRYING MID LEVELS AND LACK OF ANY NOTABLE FORCING OR MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO LOWER POP VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POP OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY..THE HEADLINE WEATHER WISE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPS. THE MAIN HAZARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FOG. THE RISK FOR DENSE FOG AT NIGHT IS HIGH BOTH NIGHTS GIVEN THE WET GROUND AS A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL INVERSION TRAPS MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNCOMMONLY HIGH OWING TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A KEY INGREDIENT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG MAY LINGER LONGEST AT THE COAST AFTER SUNRISE WHERE SEA FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS FOG WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE BEARING ON THE TEMP FORECAST. IF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER WELL INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS WARM AS WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. A SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AFTERNOONS AT THE BEACHES. THESE SAME CLOUDS SHOULD ENSURE BALMY NIGHTS. FORECAST TEMPS/RECORDS... DEC 24TH DEC 25TH ILM...79/78 IN 1879 79/77 IN 1955 FLO...82/76 IN 1998 81/81 IN 1955 CRE...76/75 IN 1955 75/77 IN 1955 THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS MID 50S. THE NORMAL LOW IS MID 30S. WE ARE CERTAINLY ON TRACK FOR THE WARMEST OR AT LEAST ONE OF THE WARMEST DECEMBERS ON RECORD WITH A WEEK TO GO. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TOP 4 FOR WETTEST YEARS ON RECORD AT BOTH FLO AND ILM WITH SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...A MEASURE OF MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THESE VALUES WILL DROP FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES FRI MORNING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH SAT NIGHT. A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST AREA FRI. THESE WEAK FEATURES...EMBEDDED IN DEEP SW FLOW...WILL BECOME FURTHER REMOVED BY SAT. THIS WARRANTS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MOST WILL RECEIVE ANY RAIN AT ALL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MASSIVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR FRONT MONDAY WILL BRING A SHORT REPRIEVE TO THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. MORE WARMTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES TO CLOSE OUT 2015. SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH STRONGLY TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL DEFLECT A VERY STRONG CUTOFF LOW EJECTING FROM NM/TX THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS MAINTAINS THE BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH SUNDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...BUT AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...IT DISPLACES NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...DRIVING A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY INTO THE SOUTHERN LATITUDINAL GAIN OF THIS FRONT...BUT IT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGE. THUS...MONDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE COOLER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES...WITH A RETURN TO WARMER BUT STILL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TUE/WED. BY THURSDAY /NEW YEARS EVE/...GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN TIMING A STRONG - POSSIBLY REGIME CHANGING - COLD FRONT. GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH LATE WED INTO THURSDAY...WHILE ECMWF SLOWS IT TO COME THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT ON NEW YEARS. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD MAKE SENSE BASED OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SO WILL SHOW COOLER TEMPS THURSDAY BUT ABOVE GFS NUMBERS WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. WITH LIGHT WINDS...THIS IS A PERFECT RECIPE FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING PLENTY OF ONES AND TWOS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR ALL STATIONS FOR VISIBILITIES. HAVE TAKEN ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR BY 0600 UTC AND SOME EARLIER...NAMELY ALONG THE COAST WHERE SOME SEA FOG MAY ADD TO THE MIX. WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE FOG TO BURN OFF AND CONDITIONS DONT IMPROVE UNTIL LATE MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. GRADIENT REMAINS ALMOST UNCHANGED AND THE LACK OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 3 TO 5 FT...HIGHER THAN WIND SPEEDS WOULD SUGGEST...GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. WAVE PERIODS APPROACHING 10 SECONDS FROM THE SOUTH ARE ALSO A RESULT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE ELEVATED SEAS HEADLINES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE BIGGEST RISK TO THE MARINE COMMUNITY THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG AND LOW STRATUS. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE LOW LEVELS. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WANING DAYS OF DEC...THEY STILL WILL BE COOLER THAN THE AIRMASS ATOP IT. IN A NORMAL WINTER...THIS WOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...THIS YEAR...THE HIGHER SEA SURFACE TEMPS DECREASE THE WATER/AIR TEMP DIFFERENTIAL. THIS MAY HELP TO LIMIT BOTH THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INCLUDE PATCHY SEA FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARINERS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE SEA FOG INTO THE WEEKEND. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE. THE FLOW AROUND THIS STRONG HIGH WILL BRING A SSW TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. A DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL RESULT IN WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR SO DUE TO A ROBUST 9 TO 10 SECOND SE SWELL. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE SUNDAY BEFORE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE WATERS DURING MONDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL NEVER BE EXTREMELY PINCHED DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SW WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KT...BEFORE TURNING TO THE NE MONDAY MORNING. A BRIEF SURGE WILL FOLLOW...RAISING WIND SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SW WINDS TO REDEVELOP AT 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL FEATURE A COMBINATION OF VARYING WIND WAVES AND A SE GROUND SWELL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF WHICH WILL CREATE 4-6 FT SEAS AND A POSSIBLE SCA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-4 FT SUNDAY...AND THEN 3-5 FT BEHIND THE NE SURGE LATE MONDAY. A CONFUSED SPECTRUM IS MOST LIKELY MONDAY AS THE NE WINDS STRENGTHEN ATOP THE RESIDUAL GROUND SWELL. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SHK
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 24, 3:40 PM EST, 5 hours 22 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 340 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015 NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-252045- ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER- INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK- COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION- WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN- COASTAL GEORGETOWN- 340 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AMZ250-252-254-256-252045- SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM- CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM- LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM- MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM- 340 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATCHY DENSE SEA FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RJD
The office that day
Everything else NWS Wilmington, NC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 24, 8:42 PM EST | Marine Dense Fog Advisory | ILM | 60 hr | |
| Dec 25, 9:21 AM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | ILM | Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender | 3 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2015Every river flood warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.