River Flood Warning 55, NWS Wilmington, NC

734 
WGUS82 KILM 240754
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
254 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...

  Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3 affecting Bladen County NC
  Cape Fear At Elizabethtown affecting Bladen County NC
  Cape Fear At Lock And Dam 1 affecting Bladen County NC
  Lumber Near Lumberton affecting Robeson County NC
  Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry affecting Dillon...Horry and Marion Counties
  SC
  Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee affecting Marion and Florence Counties SC
  Black Creek At Quinby affecting Darlington and Florence Counties SC
  Lynches At Effingham affecting Florence County SC
  Black At Kingstree affecting Williamsburg County SC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC017-242354-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/STPN7.2.ER.151224T0045Z.151226T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
254 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3.
* until further notice.
* At  2:00 AM Thursday the stage was 45.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 58.4 feet by tomorrow 
  evening then begin falling.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 7886 3485 7875 3478 7874 3472 7865
          3465 7872 3472 7882         

$$

NCC017-242354-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0049.151224T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
/ELZN7.1.ER.151224T2100Z.151227T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
254 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cape Fear At Elizabethtown.
* from this afternoon until further notice.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 33.0 feet early 
  Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet...Flood waters will reach the home of the lockmaster and 
  will affect low grounds along the length of the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7865 3466 7852 3456 7838 3450 7847
          3459 7859 3465 7872         

$$

NCC017-242354-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0055.151228T0359Z-000000T0000Z/
/CPFN7.1.ER.151228T0359Z.151228T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
254 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cape Fear At Lock And Dam 1.
* from Sunday evening until further notice.
* At  1:45 AM Thursday the stage was 19.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late Sunday evening and continue to rise 
  to near 24.4 feet by early Monday afternoon. additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Lowland flooding will occur along the riverbed.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 7838 3448 7831 3445 7820 3438 7828
          3443 7840 3450 7847         

$$

NCC141-240824-
/O.CAN.KILM.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-151224T0754Z/
/BGWN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
254 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* At  2:30 AM Thursday the stage was 5.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 9.9 feet early Monday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor flooding of roads in the River Bend and River 
  Birch subdivisions. Flooding of Croomsbridge Road begins west of the bridge 
  over the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

NCC155-242354-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBRN7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.151229T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
254 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Lumber Near Lumberton.
* until further notice.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 16.2 feet Monday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flooding worsens in the Pines and Coxs Pond areas as 
  well as along River Road. Flooding also worsens between the Pepsi plant and 
  the river on the east side of town. In addition, Chickenfoot Road, Hestertown 
  Road and Noir Street will have flood waters on them.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3461 7907 3458 7915         

$$

SCC033-051-067-242354-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0052.151225T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/GALS1.1.ER.151225T1800Z.151229T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
254 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry.
* from Friday afternoon until further notice.
* At  2:00 AM Thursday the stage was 8.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early tomorrow afternoon and continue to 
  rise to near 10.4 feet by Monday evening. additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Flood waters will continue to rise in the Fork Retch 
  community located near Nichols. Flood waters will begin to affect some homes 
  at Fork Retch. Swampland flooding will increase.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 7921 3419 7910 3405 7920 3398 7928
          3400 7938 3409 7930         

$$

SCC041-067-242354-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.2.ER.151223T2225Z.151229T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
254 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee.
* until further notice.
* At  2:00 AM Thursday the stage was 19.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.9 feet by Monday evening.
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Flood waters will continue to affect logging operations
  upstream and downstream from Pee Dee. Flooding of farmlands adjacent to the 
  river will worsen.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
          3385 7944 3398 7957         

$$

SCC031-041-242354-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BCRS1.1.ER.151223T1545Z.151225T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
254 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black Creek At Quinby.
* until further notice.
* At  2:00 AM Thursday the stage was 12.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 14.3 feet by tomorrow 
  morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Floodwaters surround the majority of homes on East 
  Black Creek Road, Creekside Drive and Crooked Creek Drive and all residents 
  are isolated due to the floodwaters. Water is lapping at the foundations of 
  all ground level homes in these areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3423 7963
          3422 7975 3428 7984         

$$

SCC041-242353-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0054.151229T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/EFFS1.1.ER.151229T0000Z.151229T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
254 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Lynches At Effingham.
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At  2:00 AM Thursday the stage was 12.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Monday evening.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Flooding will affect low lying areas along the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 7974 3396 7963 3393 7974 3398 7976
          3394 7983 3403 7986         

$$

SCC089-242353-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0053.151226T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
/KINS1.1.ER.151226T2100Z.151229T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
254 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black At Kingstree.
* from Saturday afternoon until further notice.
* At  2:00 AM Thursday the stage was 9.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday afternoon and continue to rise 
  to near 12.4 feet by early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flood waters will affect low lying areas along the 
  river especially upstream from the Highway 52 bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3373 7984 3367 7980 3362 7974 3354 7979
          3359 7987 3367 7994         

$$

224 
WGUS82 KILM 241454
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
954 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...

  Cape Fear At Elizabethtown affecting Bladen County NC
  Cape Fear At Lock And Dam 1 affecting Bladen County NC
  Black At Kingstree affecting Williamsburg County SC

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...

  Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3 affecting Bladen County NC
  Lumber Near Lumberton affecting Robeson County NC
  Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry affecting Dillon...Horry and Marion Counties
  SC
  Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee affecting Marion and Florence Counties SC
  Black Creek At Quinby affecting Darlington and Florence Counties SC
  Lynches At Effingham affecting Florence County SC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC017-250654-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/STPN7.2.ER.151224T0045Z.151226T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
954 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3.
* until further notice.
* At  9:00 AM Thursday the stage was 48.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 59.3 feet by early Saturday 
  morning then begin falling.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 7886 3485 7875 3478 7874 3472 7865
          3465 7872 3472 7882         

$$

NCC017-250654-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0049.151224T2000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ELZN7.1.ER.151224T2000Z.151227T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
954 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cape Fear At Elizabethtown.
* from this afternoon until further notice.
* At  6:30 AM Thursday the stage was 22.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and continue to rise 
  to near 32.2 feet by early Sunday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3472 7865 3466 7852 3456 7838 3450 7847
          3459 7859 3465 7872         

$$

NCC017-250654-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0055.151228T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/CPFN7.1.ER.151228T0900Z.151228T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
954 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cape Fear At Lock And Dam 1.
* from late Sunday night until further notice.
* At  8:45 AM Thursday the stage was 19.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Monday morning and continue to rise
  to near 24.2 feet by Monday evening.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Lowland flooding will occur along the riverbed.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 7838 3448 7831 3445 7820 3438 7828
          3443 7840 3450 7847         

$$

NCC155-250654-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBRN7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.151225T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
954 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Lumber Near Lumberton.
* until further notice.
* At  7:00 AM Thursday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.7 feet by tomorrow 
  morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Extensive flooding occurs along the river. Over 50 
  dwellings will be inundated or isolated due to the flood waters and several 
  roads will be closed especially in the Pines area and Coxs Pond area. Carthage
  Road may be completely covered with water.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3461 7907 3458 7915         

$$

SCC033-051-067-250654-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0052.151225T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/GALS1.1.ER.151225T1800Z.151229T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
954 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry.
* from Friday afternoon until further notice.
* At  9:00 AM Thursday the stage was 8.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early tomorrow afternoon and continue to 
  rise to near 10.5 feet by early Tuesday morning. additional rises are possible
  thereafter.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Flood waters will continue to rise in the Fork Retch 
  community located near Nichols. Flood waters will begin to affect some homes 
  at Fork Retch. Swampland flooding will increase.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 7921 3419 7910 3405 7920 3398 7928
          3400 7938 3409 7930         

$$

SCC041-067-250654-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.2.ER.151223T2225Z.151229T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
954 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee.
* until further notice.
* At  9:00 AM Thursday the stage was 20.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 25.0 feet by Tuesday 
  morning. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Flood waters will continue to affect logging operations
  upstream and downstream from Pee Dee. Flooding of farmlands adjacent to the 
  river will worsen.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
          3385 7944 3398 7957         

$$

SCC031-041-250654-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BCRS1.1.ER.151223T1545Z.151225T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
954 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black Creek At Quinby.
* until further notice.
* At  9:00 AM Thursday the stage was 13.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 14.5 feet by tomorrow 
  morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Floodwaters enter numerous homes on Creekside Drive, 
  East Black Creek Road and Crooked Creek Drive.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3423 7963
          3422 7975 3428 7984         

$$

SCC041-250653-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0054.151229T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/EFFS1.1.ER.151229T0000Z.151229T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
954 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Lynches At Effingham.
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At  9:00 AM Thursday the stage was 12.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Monday evening and continue to rise to 
  near 14.6 feet by Tuesday morning. additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Flood waters will affect roads near Effingham and New 
  Hope. North Old Georgetown, Roundtree and Bengause Roads will flood in low 
  lying areas near the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 7974 3396 7963 3393 7974 3398 7976
          3394 7983 3403 7986         

$$

SCC089-250653-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0053.151227T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/KINS1.1.ER.151227T1200Z.151229T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
954 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black At Kingstree.
* from Sunday morning until further notice.
* At  9:00 AM Thursday the stage was 9.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Sunday morning and continue to rise to 
  near 12.4 feet by Tuesday morning. additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flood waters will affect low lying areas along the 
  river especially upstream from the Highway 52 bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3373 7984 3367 7980 3362 7974 3354 7979
          3359 7987 3367 7994         

$$
43

980 
WGUS42 KILM 250202
FLWILM
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
902 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a Flood Warning for 
the following rivers in North Carolina...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County
  Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3 affecting Bladen County
  Cape Fear At Elizabethtown affecting Bladen County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC017-251802-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151230T0210Z/
/STPN7.2.ER.151224T0045Z.151226T0000Z.151229T1410Z.NO/
902 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3.
* until Tuesday evening.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 51.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 55.6 feet by tomorrow 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage late Tuesday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3485 7886 3485 7875 3478 7874 3472 7865
          3465 7872 3472 7882         

$$

NCC017-251802-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-151229T1930Z/
/ELZN7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151227T0000Z.151229T0730Z.NO/
902 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Cape Fear At Elizabethtown.
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 30.9 feet Saturday
  evening.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet...Flood waters will affect low grounds along the right 
  bank of the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7865 3466 7852 3456 7838 3450 7847
          3459 7859 3465 7872         

$$

NCC017-250232-
/O.CAN.KILM.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-151225T0202Z/
/CPFN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
902 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

* At  8:45 PM Thursday the stage was 20.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Lowland flooding will occur along the riverbed.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 7838 3448 7831 3445 7820 3438 7828
          3443 7840 3450 7847         

$$

NCC141-251802-
/O.NEW.KILM.FL.W.0056.151228T1800Z-151230T0000Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.151228T1800Z.151228T1800Z.151229T1200Z.NO/
902 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* from Monday afternoon to Tuesday evening.
* At  8:30 PM Thursday the stage was 6.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early Monday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor flooding of roads in the River Bend and River 
  Birch subdivisions. Flooding of Croomsbridge Road begins west of the bridge 
  over the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
914 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL BRING NEAR RECORD
WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH...BRIEFLY REACHING THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 914 PM WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE SENSORS CONFIRMING A VAST POOL
OF ANOMALOUSLY ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER STREAMING FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MIDDLE
EVENING. KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE REGISTERING A DEEP AND NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND FLOW...GENERALLY 25-30 KT AT 1000 FEET AND
45-50 KT FROM 2-17 KFT. CHANNELED BUT LOOSELY ORGANIZED H7-H5
VORTICITY WAS AIDING IN A SMATTERING OF SWIFTLY MOVING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN-SHOWERS ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC. THE DOWNPOURS IN ANY
ONE LOCATION TYPICALLY HAVE BEEN BRIEF WITH ENOUGH SEAWARD
PROPAGATION AND VELOCITY TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ANYWHERE.
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ABSENT IN RECENT HOURS. HEIGHT RISES OVERNIGHT
MAY VERY WELL ALLOW A LULL OR AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF A DOWNWARD
TREND IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AND UPPER ENERGY STILL PRESENT. FOR THE MIDDLE EVENING UPDATE WILL
SCALE POP VALUES TO SCATTERED CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO MINIMUM TEMPS OR WIND FIELDS OR CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS A LITTLE MORE STRONGLY THIS
PERIOD. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD GREATLY
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LIFTING NE OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE START OF PERIOD SO WILL
HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS THU MORNING...HIGHEST AT THE COAST.
INSTABILITY LIMITED...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WILL TREND POPS BELOW THRESHOLD...BUT KEEP
SMALL MENTION ALONG THE MORE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THU AFTERNOON
AND EVE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...APPROACHING FROM THE GULF
COASTAL REGION...MAY BRING SOME CONVECTION INTO MORE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THU. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...ACROSS VIRGINIA...WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN SOME SOUTHWARD
MOMENTUM ON FRI. HOWEVER... CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROPPING FROM AROUND 1.80 INCHES NEAR START OF PERIOD TO 1.3
INCHES DURING FRI. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL
CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWEST POPS ACROSS MORE SOUTHERN ZONES.

ONE OF THE BIG STORIES THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
TEMPS AND THE EXTENT OF FOG AND SEA FOG AND LOW STRATUS. THE RISK
FOR DENSE FOG AT NIGHT IS RATHER HIGH BOTH NIGHTS WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF FRI AND SAT. FOG/SEA
FOG AND STRATUS MAY LINGER LONGEST AT THE COAST.

THIS FOG WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE BEARING ON THE TEMP FORECAST. IF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER WELL INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN HIGH TEMPS
MAY NOT GET QUITE AS WARM AS WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. A
SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AFTERNOONS AT THE BEACHES. THESE
SAME CLOUDS SHOULD ENSURE BALMY NIGHTS FOR CHRISTMAS.

FORECAST TEMPS/RECORDS...
DEC 24TH                            DEC 25TH
ILM...  77/78 IN 1879               77/77 IN 1955

FLO...  79/76 IN 1998               80/81 IN 1955

CRE...  74/75 IN 1955               74/77 IN 1955

THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS MID 50S. THE NORMAL LOW IS
MID 30S. WE ARE CERTAINLY ON TRACK FOR THE WARMEST OR AT LEAST ONE
OF THE WARMEST DECEMBERS ON RECORD WITH LESS THAN A WEEK TO GO. WE
ARE ALSO ON PACE FOR TOP 10 IN THE YEARLY RAINFALL DEPT AT FLORENCE
AND TOP 2 AT WILMINGTON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS
IT SHIFTS EVER SO SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CONTINUED DEEP
MOIST AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THEREFORE SHOULD SEE
INTERMITTENT CLOUDS AND MAINLY LOW END PCP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT BY LATE MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEAST UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST. WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING AND
WINDS ALOFT REMAINING ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT...IT WILL TAKE TIME
TO PUSH EASTWARD BUT SHOULD INCREASE WINDS AND PCP CHANCES
ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUES AS IT PROGRESSES INTO AND THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY WED WITH A
DRIER MORE WESTERLY FLOW AROUND RIDGE ALOFT AND DRIER W-NW FLOW AT
THE SFC.

ECMWF SHOWS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO AS IT SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALLOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE A COOL DOWN ON MONDAY...OR AT
LEAST IN A RELATIVE SENSE AS TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 MAY BE CLOSER TO 65
TO 70 ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUES. BUT THE GFS KEEPS THIS FRONT
NORTH AND NEVER BRINGS ANY COOLER AIR THIS FAR SOUTH LEAVING TEMPS
UP NEAR 80 ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 02Z...PATCHES OF IFR ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS DUE TO SEA
STRATUS. INLAND MAINLY MVFR EXCEPT BRIEF IFR IN AND NEAR TSTMS AND
SHRA. FLO TO LBT PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AND VSBYS 2-5SM THROUGH 8Z
THURSDAY. VCSH AREA-WIDE AFTER 8Z INTO DAYBREAK WITH S WIND GUSTS
TO 22 KT AT TIMES IN STRONG SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT. MDT
TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED IN APPROACH AND TAKE OFF DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PCPN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN AND
LOW CEILINGS FROM THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 914 PM WEDNESDAY...SEA HEIGHTS RUNNING 6-8 FEET SO AN
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD WAS NEEDED IN WAVE MAGNITUDE FOR OVERNIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT SEA BUILDS LANDWARD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LOOSEN SOMEWHAT AND WINDS WILL DECREASE. SEAS HOWEVER WILL
NEED RECOVERY TIME THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS TO HOLD BETWEEN
20-30 KT OVERNIGHT...15-25 KT DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT INTO THU MORNING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS FROM
THE S AND SE THIS PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THU WITH
THE FLOW WEAKENING THU NIGHT AND FRI. SEA FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIKELY BECOME AT LEAST PATCHY ACROSS THE WATERS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
70 AND AIR TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THU. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT
THU MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING THEREAFTER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE PROVIDING A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AND
THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS UNDER 10 KT. BY MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN GRADIENT AND PRODUCE AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY
OR ON SHORE PUSH. THEREFORE SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO TUES POSSIBLY UP TO SCA THRESHOLDS. WINDS
MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DISRUPT THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY TO ON SHORE PUSH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256-270-274.

&&

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MJC
HYDRO/CLIMATE DESK...REK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
303 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

NCZ087-096-099-105-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055-242015-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-
INLAND GEORGETOWN-
303 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER AND
NUISANCE TYPE SHALLOW FLOODING ACROSS PRONE AREA ROADWAYS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-242015-
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
303 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER AND
NUISANCE TYPE SHALLOW FLOODING ACROSS PRONE AREA ROADWAYS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-242015-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
303 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ107-242015-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-
303 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER AND
NUISANCE TYPE SHALLOW FLOODING ACROSS PRONE AREA ROADWAYS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 9 AM THURSDAY
MORNING  ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

SCZ017-023-232200-
MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-
352 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES...

AT 355 PM EST...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WAS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ANSONVILLE TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BISHOPVILLE... AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

YOU CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THEY MOVE
RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO
COUNTIES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENNETTSVILLE...HARTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...CHERAW...MCCOLL...LAMAR...
CLIO...CHAVISTOWN...KELLYTOWN...FLORENCE DARLINGTON TECHNICAL COLLEGE
MAIN CAMPUS...BROWNSVILLE...DOVESVILLE...WALLACE...NORTH
HARTSVILLE...MONT CLARE...DARLINGTON RACEWAY...FLOYD...LYDIA...DUNBAR
AND CLYDE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 126 AND 139.
 INTERSTATE 95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR MILE MARKER 146.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 3449 8005 3449 7989 3453 7983 3461 7981
      3461 7978 3465 7980 3469 7987 3477 7993
      3481 7993 3481 7968 3467 7951 3436 7960
      3409 8008 3416 8016 3420 8011 3423 8011
      3433 8018 3436 8018 3433 8024 3437 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 231DEG 44KT 3518 8004 3417 8039

RGZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
504 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

SCZ017-023-024-032-232300-
DILLON-FLORENCE-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-
504 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
DILLON...FLORENCE...DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES...

AT 510 PM EST...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SANFORD TO FLORENCE DARLINGTON TECHNICAL
COLLEGE MAIN CAMPUS. THIS LINE WAS SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD AS
THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
45 MPH.

YOU CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THEY MOVE
RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLORENCE...BENNETTSVILLE...HARTSVILLE...LAKE CITY...DARLINGTON...
TIMMONSVILLE...MCCOLL...LAMAR...QUINBY...CLIO...SARDIS...NEW HOPE...
MINTURN...EFFINGHAM...OAK GROVE...FLORENCE DARLINGTON TECHNICAL
COLLEGE MAIN CAMPUS...BROWNSVILLE...WALLACE...EVERGREEN AND
DARLINGTON RACEWAY.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 125 AND 141.
 INTERSTATE 95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR MILE MARKER 146...AND BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 148 AND 185.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 3449 8005 3449 7989 3453 7983 3461 7978
      3481 7993 3481 7968 3459 7941 3426 7951
      3419 7957 3415 7954 3382 7964 3391 7996
      3395 7997 3399 7989 3415 8015 3423 8011
      3436 8018 3433 8024 3436 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 215DEG 88KT 3556 7921 3425 7982

RGZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
521 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

NCZ087-232315-
ROBESON-
521 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF
OF ROBESON COUNTY...

AT 528 PM EST...THE STRONGEST STORM WAS OVER MCCOLL...OR 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAURINBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

YOU CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...
POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WITH THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THEY
MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LINE SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RED SPRINGS...PEMBROKE...MAXTON...ST. PAULS...ROWLAND...RAEMON...
PURVIS...BUIE...SHANNON...WAKULLA...PROSPECT...REX...ELROD...
PARKTON...RENNERT...LUMBER BRIDGE AND RAYNHAM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 74 NEAR MILE MARKER 191...BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 207 AND
203...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 192 AND 200.
 INTERSTATE 95 IN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 26 AND 38.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 3490 7894 3489 7893 3486 7893 3481 7889
      3448 7928 3463 7946 3477 7933 3482 7936
      3484 7935 3483 7919 3495 7903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 236DEG 38KT 3467 7954

RGZ