Rivers in North Carolina
Cape Fear River at Lock 1
Below flood stage
14.96ftStage
Observed Sun, Sep 27, 11:45 AM EDT
- Flood stage
- 24.00 ft
- Forecast crest
- 14.90 ftSun, Sep 27, 2:00 PM EDT
- Record crest
- 30.68 ft2018
Flood stages and impacts
| Category | Stage |
|---|---|
| Major flood | 28.00 ft |
| Moderate flood | 26.00 ft |
| Minor flood | 24.00 ft |
| Action | 22.00 ft |
- 30.00 ftFlooding similar to Hurricane Florence in 2018. Highway 11 between the Cape Fear River and Natmore Road near Kelly will be flooded. The Canetuck area may be flooded. Several roads near Kelly and Canetuck may be flooded. The railroad between Navassa and Wilmington may flood as the crest works downstream and moderate or higher tidal flooding will occur at downtown Wilmington within a week of the crest at Lock 1.
- 28.00 ftFlooding similar to Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Highway 11 between the Cape Fear River and Natmore Road near Kelly will be flooded. The Canetuck area may be flooded especially if the Black River is also flooding. The railroad between Navassa and Wilmington may flood as the crest works downstream and moderate or higher tidal flooding will occur at downtown Wilmington within a week of the crest at Lock 1.
- 26.00 ftHighway 11 will begin to flood between the Cape Fear River and Natmore Road. Other roads near Kelly and Canetuck may flood. Moderate flooding of swamps and low lands. Flooding similar to that reached with the remnants of Hurricane Hilda in 1964.
- 24.00 ft24 Water will top the lock at Lock and Dam 1 near Kelly. Widespread lowland flooding will occur along the river. North Elwell Ferry Road will be flooded on both sites of the river near the ferry landing.
- 20.00 ftNorth Elwell Ferry Road will likely be flooded north of the river near the ferry landing. Lowland flooding along the river.
- 19.00 ftNorth Elwell Ferry Road will begin to flood north of the river near the ferry landing. Lowland flooding along the river.
Flood outlook
Chance of flooding, September to November
| Category | Chance |
|---|---|
| Minor flooding | Under 5% |
| Moderate flooding | Under 5% |
| Major flooding | Under 5% |
The three-month chances are the River Forecast Centers’ long-range flood outlook, issued September 15, 2026.
Crest history
163 crests on NOAA’s list since 1945.
| # | Date | Stage |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 21, 2018 | 30.68 ft |
| 2 | September 23, 1945 | 29.80 ft |
| 3 | October 13, 2016 | 28.58 ft |
| 4 | October 9, 1964 | 26.00 ft |
| 5 | March 3, 1979 | 24.92 ft |
| 6 | September 12, 1996 | 24.90 ft |
| 7 | February 8, 1973 | 24.77 ft |
| 8 | July 21, 1975 | 24.30 ft |
| 9 | April 6, 1973 | 24.20 ft |
| 10 | March 24, 1998 | 24.16 ft |
| 11 | August 13, 2024 | 23.92 ft |
| 12 | November 19, 2018 | 23.75 ft |
| 13 | April 15, 2003 | 23.72 ft |
| 14 | March 6, 1987 | 23.61 ft |
| 15 | March 22, 1975 | 23.50 ft |
| 16 | March 8, 1971 | 23.34 ft |
| 17 | August 19, 1969 | 23.34 ft |
| 18 | September 20, 1999 | 23.30 ft |
| 19 | February 12, 2020 | 23.27 ft |
| 20 | November 17, 2020 | 23.25 ft |
| 21 | January 18, 1975 | 22.90 ft |
| 22 | January 31, 1978 | 22.88 ft |
| 23 | December 21, 1972 | 22.88 ft |
| 24 | February 22, 1995 | 22.75 ft |
| 25 | November 27, 2006 | 22.71 ft |
Most recent crests
- August 13, 2024: 23.92 ft
- April 13, 2023: 21.39 ft
- March 21, 2022: 21.10 ft
- February 20, 2021: 22.67 ft
- January 7, 2021: 22.04 ft
- November 17, 2020: 23.25 ft
- February 12, 2020: 23.27 ft
- April 26, 2019: 19.63 ft
- April 12, 2019: 20.18 ft
- March 24, 2019: 19.69 ft
Nearby
Upstream, downstream and the gauges around this one.
What this means
Forecasts by the Southeast River Forecast Center. Forecasts are issued routinely year-round. River forecasts for this location take into account past precipitation and the precipitation amounts expected approximately 48 hours into the future from the forecast issuance time.
Sources
Stage, flood stages, impacts and crest history from NOAA’s National Water Prediction Service. Streamflow and the daily record from the U.S. Geological Survey.