Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

SYNOPSIS...MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT ORIENTED
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST...BISECTING CENTRAL KS...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO ERUPT ALONG THESE FEATURES. FURTHER
SOUTH...A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE PRESENT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL...WITH JUST MINOR/SUBTLE RIPPLES PROGRESSING NORTHEAST OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN THUNDERSTORM-WISE SLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MUCH QUIETER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

WHILE SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AM NOT EXPECTING AN OUTBREAK OR WIDESPREAD
HIGH- END SEVERE WEATHER. MAIN REASONS BEING: 1) LACK OF QUALITY
DEEP LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...PARTLY DUE TO
WESTERN OK THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. 2) MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
WEAK LOW- LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...MODEST HEATING AND STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG...SO SOME OCCURRENCES OF QUARTER-GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CAN NEVER
BE RULED OUT WITH SEVERE STORMS...MUCH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH OF A TORNADO
THREAT...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF LANDSPOUTS OVER CENTRAL KS.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EASTERN KS OVERNIGHT. STORM MERGERS/TRAINING
CELLS WILL FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AMONG OTHER THINGS...THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CIPS ANALOGS. FRIDAY
THREAT IS CONTINGENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW/SYNOPTIC FRONT GETS TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SET-UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK BY
PEAK HEATING. GIVEN RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAMPERING DESTABILIZATION.
NONETHELESS...IF THIS HURDLE IS OVERCOME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY INITIATE CONVECTION BY
MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS EAST-WEST
BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS FURTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST IN VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE OVER SOUTHWEST KS AND WESTERN OK.
FURTHERMORE...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG. THINKING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST.
WIDESPREAD STORMS WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE POTENT SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS SATURDAY...ATOP AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES...WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KS/OK. STRONG FORCING...STRONG INSTABILITY AND
STRENGTHENING LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR A HIGH-END
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. HIGHEST
THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR A HANDFUL
OF STRONG/LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED...AS FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A LIFE-THREATENING...HIGH-IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER
DAY.

FURTHERMORE...WITH WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS...HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT THE WEEK. COULD SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING BY MID-WEEK...BUT NOTHING MAJOR EXPECTED DUE TO
MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 21-22Z UNTIL DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION REDEVELOPS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. INITIAL
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MAY APPROACH THE
HWY 54 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

WITH WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS...HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHILE RIVER FLOODING IN NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...COULD SEE MODEST
RISES ON AREA STREAM/RIVERS. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR ANY FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  79  63  76 /  70  50  70  70
HUTCHINSON      59  75  61  76 /  70  50  70  70
NEWTON          60  76  61  76 /  70  50  70  70
ELDORADO        61  77  62  76 /  70  60  70  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  79  63  76 /  70  50  70  70
RUSSELL         56  70  57  74 /  60  40  60  70
GREAT BEND      56  72  58  73 /  60  50  60  70
SALINA          58  73  61  77 /  60  50  60  60
MCPHERSON       59  75  61  75 /  70  50  70  70
COFFEYVILLE     64  80  65  79 /  70  60  70  50
CHANUTE         63  79  64  79 /  70  60  70  50
IOLA            63  78  63  78 /  70  60  70  50
PARSONS-KPPF    64  80  64  79 /  70  60  70  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

KSZ033-047>050-072115-
SALINE KS-ELLSWORTH KS-BARTON KS-LINCOLN KS-RICE KS-
345 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  ELLSWORTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN RICE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 342 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
  SOUTH OF TESCOTT TO NEAR PAWNEE ROCK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
  MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SALINA...GREAT BEND...ELLSWORTH...HOISINGTON...ELLINWOOD...
  CLAFLIN...KANOPOLIS...HOLYROOD...BUSHTON...BROOKVILLE...LORRAINE...
  GLENDALE...FREDERICK...ODIN...ELLSWORTH AIRPORT...GREAT BEND
  AIRPORT...KANOPOLIS STATE PARK...WESTFALL...CHEYENNE BOTTOMS AND
  KANOPOLIS LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

BESIDES LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF
FUNNEL CLOUDS. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE GROUND...
HOWEVER A VERY BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. IF SO...THEY
COULD RESULT IN MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9903 3849 9896 3870 9862 3870 9849
      3878 9848 3900 9810 3888 9753 3828 9865
      3827 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 232DEG 15KT 3893 9791 3826 9906

DARMOFAL