Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT HAS
NUDGED A BIT NORTHWARD AT MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TO NEAR WINFIELD IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL EARLY
EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION INITIATES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF. A PERIOD
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-EVENING FOR AREAS
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
WILL FESTER INTO LATE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EMANATE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND...BEFORE TRACKING INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL DRIVE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE AREA DURING FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AS WE ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK OR SO AWAY FROM OUR USUAL AVERAGE
LAST FROST/FREEZE CLIMATOLOGY IN MANY AREAS. MILDER SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MEAN UPPER TROF
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KANSAS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WILL BE MADE
WITH MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES TIED TO THE EVENTUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROF OR PIECES THEREOF IN
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT
TO VENTURE INTO THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST OK...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS...TO SOUTHERN MO EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG
INSTABILITY/SHEAR EXISTS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND EXPECTING
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS TO ERUPT EARLY THIS EVENING IN THIS
REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE CNU TERMINAL WITH
HAIL/WINDS. ICT IS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE TS
MENTION OUT FOR THIS EVENING AND MONITOR TRENDS. ANOTHER BATCH OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES...BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
STRATUS SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARD MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GIVE
SOME AREAS BENEFICIAL WETTING RAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
HOWEVER...THINGS WILL DRY OUT AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HELPING TO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY...PRIMARILY FROM THE FLINT HILLS
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  58  35  66 /  40  40   0   0
HUTCHINSON      42  58  33  67 /  50  40   0   0
NEWTON          43  55  34  65 /  60  50   0   0
ELDORADO        46  58  34  66 /  60  50   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  59  34  66 /  40  30   0   0
RUSSELL         38  56  33  68 /  70  40   0   0
GREAT BEND      39  57  33  67 /  60  40   0   0
SALINA          41  57  33  68 /  70  50   0   0
MCPHERSON       42  56  33  66 /  70  50   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     51  58  34  64 /  60  40   0   0
CHANUTE         49  57  33  64 /  70  60   0   0
IOLA            48  57  33  64 /  70  60   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    50  58  34  65 /  70  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
943 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-040245-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
943 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO
HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN-FREE AREAS FOR MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE FLINT HILLS ON FRIDAY...DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...FROM THE FLINT HILLS WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
744 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     TORNADO          1 N LABETTE             37.24N 95.18W
04/02/2015                   LABETTE            KS   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTS TORNADO JUST NORTH OF LABETTE.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
814 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TORNADO          2 S MOUND VALLEY        37.18N 95.40W
04/02/2015                   LABETTE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS TORNADO WHICH DAMAGED A SHED
            SOUTH OF MOUND VALLEY.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
833 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             OSWEGO                  37.17N 95.11W
04/02/2015  E0.75 INCH       LABETTE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
901 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     HAIL             CANEY                   37.01N 95.93W
04/02/2015  E0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A DELAYED REPORT FROM FIRE DEPARTMENT WAS PEA TO DIME
            SIZE HAIL. TIME IS ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

VJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
946 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

KSZ070-071-030330-
WOODSON KS-GREENWOOD KS-
946 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 944 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HAMILTON...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
  OF MADISON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  YATES CENTER...HAMILTON AND VIRGIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3787 9565 3792 9631 3810 9631 3812 9596
      3804 9596 3804 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 271DEG 29KT 3802 9622

MCGUIRE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1031 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

KSZ071-072-030415-
WOODSON KS-ALLEN KS-
1031 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1030 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEOSHO FALLS...OR 7 MILES WEST
  OF IOLA...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  IOLA...HUMBOLDT...LA HARPE...GAS...MORAN...NEOSHO FALLS...
  SAVONBURG...ELSMORE...MILDRED...BASSETT...IOLA AIRPORT AND PIQUA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 9509 3784 9565 3804 9563 3804 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 274DEG 51KT 3794 9554

MCGUIRE