Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Wichita, KS

371 
WWUS53 KICT 030008
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
708 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

KSC099-133-030045-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-150403T0045Z/
LABETTE KS-NEOSHO KS-
708 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN LABETTE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEOSHO COUNTIES...

AT 708 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PARSONS...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PARSONS...ST. PAUL...MOUND VALLEY...LABETTE...DENNIS...SOUTH MOUND
AND LAKE PARSONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND 
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 9546 3738 9543 3767 9509 3739 9509
      3738 9508 3722 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 257DEG 34KT 3734 9535 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MCGUIRE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT HAS
NUDGED A BIT NORTHWARD AT MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TO NEAR WINFIELD IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL EARLY
EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION INITIATES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF. A PERIOD
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-EVENING FOR AREAS
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
WILL FESTER INTO LATE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EMANATE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND...BEFORE TRACKING INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL DRIVE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE AREA DURING FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AS WE ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK OR SO AWAY FROM OUR USUAL AVERAGE
LAST FROST/FREEZE CLIMATOLOGY IN MANY AREAS. MILDER SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MEAN UPPER TROF
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KANSAS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WILL BE MADE
WITH MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES TIED TO THE EVENTUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROF OR PIECES THEREOF IN
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT
TO VENTURE INTO THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST OK...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS...TO SOUTHERN MO EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG
INSTABILITY/SHEAR EXISTS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND EXPECTING
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS TO ERUPT EARLY THIS EVENING IN THIS
REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE CNU TERMINAL WITH
HAIL/WINDS. ICT IS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE TS
MENTION OUT FOR THIS EVENING AND MONITOR TRENDS. ANOTHER BATCH OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES...BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
STRATUS SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARD MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GIVE
SOME AREAS BENEFICIAL WETTING RAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
HOWEVER...THINGS WILL DRY OUT AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HELPING TO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY...PRIMARILY FROM THE FLINT HILLS
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  58  35  66 /  40  40   0   0
HUTCHINSON      42  58  33  67 /  50  40   0   0
NEWTON          43  55  34  65 /  60  50   0   0
ELDORADO        46  58  34  66 /  60  50   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  59  34  66 /  40  30   0   0
RUSSELL         38  56  33  68 /  70  40   0   0
GREAT BEND      39  57  33  67 /  60  40   0   0
SALINA          41  57  33  68 /  70  50   0   0
MCPHERSON       42  56  33  66 /  70  50   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     51  58  34  64 /  60  40   0   0
CHANUTE         49  57  33  64 /  70  60   0   0
IOLA            48  57  33  64 /  70  60   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    50  58  34  65 /  70  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
420 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-032130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
420 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING PRIMARILY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
THE MAIN RISKS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS TO 70 MPH. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...MOVING FROM
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN-FREE AREAS FOR MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE FLINT HILLS ON FRIDAY...DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...FROM THE FLINT HILLS WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP