Flash Flood Warning 91, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

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&&

.AVIATION...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IMPACTS FROM TS BILL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
THE RAIN IMPACTS MAINLY OVER KCLL. AFTER 12Z THE 4KM WRF AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWED FEEDER BANDS
POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE AVIATION SITES. WINDS AND
RAIN IMPACTS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM BILL CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH WITH THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME DRY AIR ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE SEEMED TO BE LIMITING THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL. GAGE REPORTS FROM THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
AUTHORITY SHOW SOME 5-6 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER MATAGORDA AND
WHARTON COUNTY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES
DOWN IN BRAZORIA...WHARTON...MATAGORDA AND JACKSON COUNTIES. WINDS
STILL RATHER STRONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 34 KTS. BILL IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE AT A DECENT CLIP TO THE NORTH AND PROGGED TO BE
IN NORTH TX AROUND SUNRISE.

NERN COUNTIES OVER OUR CWA HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAIN SO FAR TODAY/THIS
EVENING. WILL BE DROPPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR HOUSTON...POLK
AND TRINITY COUNTIES AT MIDNIGHT (IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EXPECTED
END TIME OF THE TORNADO WATCH). OTHERWISE HAVE ALSO TWEAKED POP/WX
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN A BIT UNDER DONE...BASED
ON COMPARISONS WITH LCRA GAUGE NUMBERS...BOTH LEGACY AND DUAL POL
ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT 20-30% LOWER.

43/41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  86  74  89  74 /  60  50  20  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  90  75  91  75 /  40  30  10  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  85  80  85  81 /  30  20  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...SAN
     JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
452 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-211-212-171300-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
452 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS
FROM TROPICAL STORM BILL CONTINUE TO PUMP INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP EITHER WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
OR WHERE ANY TRAINING SETS UP. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TOO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP EITHER WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS OR WHERE ANY TRAINING SETS UP.

EXPECT DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES
TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 AND 5 TO 8 INCHES TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE
45. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-171300-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
452 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS BILL APPROACHES MATAGORDA BAY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE...
ALONG WITH HIGH WINDS AND SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.
ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AND THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
ARE POSSIBLE TOO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL
ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. CAUTION FLAGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.
ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY LOWERING WINDS AND TIDES
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TXZ200-210-213-214-226-227-235>238-171300-
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-
LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
452 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHES
MATAGORDA BAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BILL CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GULF. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP EITHER WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS OR WHERE ANY TRAINING SETS UP. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TOO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP EITHER
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OR WHERE ANY TRAINING SETS UP.

EXPECT DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES
TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 AND 5 TO 8 INCHES TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE
45. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1240 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BRENHAM                 30.16N  96.40W
06/17/2015                   WASHINGTON         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD IMPASSABLE AT 1100 ROCKPORT LANE DUE TO WATER UP
            TO 5 INCHES DEEP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500382

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1241 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BRENHAM                 30.16N  96.40W
06/17/2015                   WASHINGTON         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BURLESON STREET CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500383

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1243 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BRENHAM                 30.16N  96.40W
06/17/2015                   WASHINGTON         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER ON ROADWAY AT FM 390 AND QUEBE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500384

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