Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
332 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENDING THE FLOOD WATCH TO 11 PM.

VERY MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AND FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE GULF THANKS TO TD BILL. STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN IN PLACE NEAR
CRP AND THE GULF WATERS TO A COMBINATION OF S/W OVER MEXICO AND
THE CONVERGENCE ON THE FAR SOUTH FLANK OF BILL MERGING INTO THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH ARCS AROUND INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY AND UP
INTO NEWTON/JASPER COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE STILL FLOWING BACK INTO
SETX AND WITH THE INCOMING MEXICO S/W THINK THAT IT IS A GOOD IDEA
TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO 11 PM. RAINS THOUGH INTENSE AT
TIMES SHOULD BE MORE OF A WIDE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED NATURE
TONIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SWITCHING TO THE NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING NEAR AUSTIN SPREADING EASTWARD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS OF
90+ AND 72-75 DEWPOINTS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING AND BE FUEL FOR STORMS MAYBE EVEN SOME STRONG STORMS.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY HAVE A VERY BROAD RANGE...MANY SITES
LESS THAN 0.25" BUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. YESTERDAYS SOAKING
COMBINED WITH TODAYS RAINS HAS DONE A GREAT JOB OF SATURATING THE
SOIL SO RUNOFF WILL BE EASY AND PLENTIFUL IF HEAVY RAINS DEVELOP.

THE BEST CONVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH THURSDAY AND SO WILL
KEEP POPS HIGHER NORTH AND LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN BUT AGAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

RAIN CHANCES DO DECREASE GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND SHEAR AXIS RETREATS INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO THE REGION AS MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE GULF FINALLY
MOVES INTO TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GULF RETREATS EASTWARD.

.RIVERS...
MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS AND SOME TO MAJOR
AND EVEN THREATENING RECORD LEVELS. THE FLOODING ON THE MUSTANG
BASIN IS NEARING HISTORIC LEVELS WITH HIGHWAY 59 CLOSED AND
REROUTED AS WELL AS MANY HOUSES CUT OFF.

45

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY WITH BANDS OF
SHOWERS REMAINING BEHIND. TAF SITES RELATIVELY QUIET IN BETWEEN RAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST AND WEST. AS BILL LIFTS NORTH AND RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST...WILL SEE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE MARINE AREA SLACKEN SOME ALLOWING FOR WINDS...SEAS AND STORM
TIDES TO ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASE. HOWEVER WILL STILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ON WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH...GENERALLY 10
TO 15 KNOTS...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 5
TO 6 FEET AT BUOYS 19 AND 35. SHOULD DROP A FOOT OR SO BY TOMORROW
AND ANOTHER FOOT BY THE WEEKEND.
46
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  88  74  89  74 /  80  60  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  89  75  90  75 /  60  20  20  50  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  86  80 /  60  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

DISCUSSION...45
MARINE/AVIATION...46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
728 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-181230-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
728 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
ABOVE NORMAL SURF AT AREA BEACHES WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS. WATER LEVELS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND WAVE
ACTION WILL RUN UP THE BEACH AND COULD APPROACH THE LOWEST LYING
ROADWAYS AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATER THIS MORNING AND PRODUCE
MINOR OVERWASH. IF GOING TO THE BEACH BE SURE TO ASK AND FOLLOW
ADVICE OF BEACH PATROL OFFICIALS AND LIFEGUARDS. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR
A LIFEGUARD AND AWAY FROM PIERS...JETTIES AND ROCK GROINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTER THURSDAY'S ONSHORE WINDS DIE OUT PER THE NORTHEAST EXIT OF
THE REMNANTS OF BILL...NO SIGIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE LOCAL
MEDIA...LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

TXZ176>178-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181230-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-SAN JACINTO-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
728 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY...

FEEDER BANDS FORMING SOUTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL MOVING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING EPISODES THROUGH THE
DAY INTO EVENING HOURS. SINCE BILL HAS MADE LANDFALL...4 TO NEAR
8 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA
COUNTIES SURROUNDING MATAGORDA BAY AND EXTENDING UP INTO AUSTIN
...WALLER...AND GRIMES COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...WITH LOCALLY 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS...WILL GENERATE
FLOODING ISSUES. THESE HEAVY RAIN BANDS WILL BE PASSING ACROSS
HOUSTON METRO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXACERBATING THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT...NOT ONLY FROM SHEET OR RUN-OFF FLOODING BUT
FROM RISES IN THE LOCAL WATERSHEDS. REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND...DONT
DROWN...WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH UPON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY TO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA LATTER
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LINGERING RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF BILL ON THURSDAY SHOULD
NOT POSE ANY IMMEDIATE FLOODING THREAT. THERE ARE MODEST
PROBABILITIES OF RETURNING SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THAT COULD INDUCE SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE FLOODING CONCERNS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THOSE COUNTIES THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED HIGH
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM BILL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
LOCAL MEDIA...LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
155 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WHARTON                 29.32N  96.10W
06/17/2015                   WHARTON            TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...FM 1160...FM
            441...FM 1300.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500396

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
156 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      COLUMBUS                29.70N  96.55W
06/17/2015                   COLORADO           TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...FM 2761 EAST
            OF COLUMBUS...FM 2434...FM 532.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500397

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
202 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BELLVILLE               29.95N  96.26W
06/17/2015                   AUSTIN             TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...FM 2429 JUST
            SOUTH OF BELLVILLE....FM 2754 BETWEEN KENNEY AND
            BLEIBLERVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500398

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
208 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BRENHAM                 30.16N  96.40W
06/17/2015                   WASHINGTON         TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FM 1155 ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...12 MILES EAST
            NORTHEAST OF BRENHAM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500399

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
214 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NAVASOTA                30.39N  96.09W
06/17/2015                   GRIMES             TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...FM 3090 12 MILES NORTH
            OF NAVASOTA...FM 1774 JUST NORTH OF PLANTERSVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500400

DCH