Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
432 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLJ
THIS MORNING FORMING A LINE FROM NEAR GIDDINGS TO HEMPSTEAD BACK
INTO HOUSTON TO DEVERS. STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WERE STILL ONGOING IN
SOUTHEAST HARRIS COUNTY MOVING EAST. HAD THOUGHT THE ATMOSPHERE
HAD BEEN WELL WORKED OVER BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EVENT BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE LLJ CONTINUES TO BRING BACK ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT MORE STORMS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REISSUED/EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND EXPANDED IT UP TO THE COLLEGE STATION AREA
TO CONROE TO LIBERTY THROUGH NOON.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 10+ INCHES OF RAIN IN SUGARLAND AND WEST
HOUSTON ALONG BELTWAY 8 BETWEEN I-10 AND HIGHWAY 90. WIDESPREAD
ROAD FLOODING GOING ON IN HOUSTON AND HOUSTON EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
DISCOURAGING ANY TRAVEL.

BAYOUS/CREEKS AND RIVERS IN THE METRO AREA HAVE ALL RESPONDED
WITH LARGE RISES AND MANY ARE OUT OF BANKS AND FLOODING. NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF FLOOD WATERS IN HOMES.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY HEAVY AND SLOW MOVING RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN AND AROUND PORTIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY AND FORT
BEND COUNTY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3 AND ALMOST 11 INCHES
HAVE CAUSED MANY AREA RIVERS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS TO OVERFLOW WHICH
HAS SHUT DOWN AREA FREEWAYS AND PLACED WATER IN AREA HOMES AND BUSINESSES.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM UP AS THE STORM COMPLEX
EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 AM WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES ON OUT. WILL KEEP SOME 20%-30%
POPS IN TODAY'S FORECAST IN CASE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS. HAVE NOT
SPENT A LOT OF TIME LOOKING BEYOND TODAY'S FORECAST THAT HAS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN INCREASING
NUMBERS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

STAY SAFE OUT THERE! 42

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHEN THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.

MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING DROPPED BY 8AM AND SCEC FLAGS
BEING LOWERED BY NOON.

TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER THE TIDE
LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.   44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRACTICALLY
STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
KIAH IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AND SHOULD
TOGGLE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHOU
AND KSGR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOLID MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THOSE TERMINALS. OF CONCERN IS THE
CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA.

KLBX AND KGLS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF TIMING THE LINE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
EXTEND THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS BY 08Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO ARE VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-
MORNING WHILE THE EASTERN TERMINALS FACE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. STRONG ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  73  87  72  86 /  30  20  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  73  88  74  87 /  30  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  77  86  78  85 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...WALLER...
     WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...45
WARNINGS...42/33/14
AVIATION...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
413 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-262115-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
413 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE BOTH
POSSIBLE. THE BETTER CHANCES OF BOTH WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WIND
DAMAGE AND TORNADOES WILL BOTH BE THREATS.

AT THE BEACH...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND ABOVE NORMAL SURF
HEIGHTS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. PLEASE SEND REPORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING VIA TWITTER OR FACEBOOK AT NWSHOUSTON.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-262115-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
413 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
247 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 AM     FLASH FLOOD      N ROSENBERG             29.55N  95.79W
05/26/2015                   FORT BEND          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            3.5 FEET OF WATER IN GREENWOOD SUBDIVISION WITH WATER
            HALFWAY TO HOMES IN SUBDIVISION

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500296

MH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW KENDLETON         29.41N  96.02W
05/26/2015                   WHARTON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIND DAMAGE REPORTED AT PROPERTY NEAR COUNTY ROAD 216
            AND MACHAVILLE RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500297

MH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 AM     HAIL             3 NNE MANVEL            29.53N  95.34W
05/26/2015  M0.75 INCH       BRAZORIA           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL IN PEARLAND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500298

42

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
407 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE MORGAN'S POINT     29.68N  95.00W
05/26/2015                   HARRIS             TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            LARGE CRANE BLOWN OVER ONTO SHIP NEAR BARBOURS CUT

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500299

MH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 AM     HAIL             N FRESNO                29.54N  95.46W
05/26/2015  E1.75 INCH       FORT BEND          TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF GOLFBALL HAIL IN FRESNO

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500300

MH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 AM     HAIL             4 NNW WEBSTER           29.59N  95.15W
05/26/2015  M0.75 INCH       HARRIS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AROUND DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            CLEAR LAKE CITY BLVD AND EL CAMINO REAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500301

42