Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
659 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KCLL AND KUTS
FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THE LINE HAS HAD A SLOW SE PROGRESSION...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LINE WILL ACCELERATE AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL IMPACT THE HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN
02-04Z AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-07Z. THE TIMING
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT TERMINALS TO THE NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR.

BEHIND THE LINE...ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT HOUSTON METRO AREA
TERMINALS.   44

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
LINE OF STORMS HAS BACK BUILT AND ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE TX UNTIL 2AM. ARE WX HAZARDS
ARE IN PLAY - FLASH FLOODING...WIND DAMAGE...HAIL & TORNADOES.
LINE IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS NE TX WHICH IS CAUSE
FOR CONCERN THE SRN PART MOVING INTO SE TX COULD EVENTUALLY SLOW
AND CAUSE MORE HEADACHES LATE TONIGHT. BUT AS OF THIS MOMENT IT IS
STILL ADVANCING ESE. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
HAS GENERATED FAST MOVING LINE OF TSTMS ALONG W/ SOME SUPERCELLS.
TRAILING THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ARE BEING FED BY 30-35KT LLJ FROM THE GULF ALONG W/ EVIDENT
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.

THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE TRAINING NATURE...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AND FF WATCH WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE OBSERVED...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY...LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SEE LESS
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING STILL
EXISTS SHOULD LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS OCCUR...THEREFORE THAT
REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE WATCH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS W/ TORNADOS & WIND DAMAGE PRIMARY THREATS.

BEST DIVERGENCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND WOULD
ANTICIPATE GENERAL INTENSITY TO INCREASE. AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
FORCING MOVES OFF INTO OK/ARKANSAS THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION OVER US WILL SLOW DOWN...LEAVING
A BOUNDARY FOR LINGERING PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND/OR BOUNDARY TO WORK
OFF OF TOMORROW. WE'RE GOING TO JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERING MODEL SOLNS -
AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES MIGHT COME INTO PLAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POTENTIAL LINGERING BOUNDARY, ETC FOR
TUE...WE SHOULD SEE PW VALUES DIMINISH BACK INTO THE 1.5-1.7"
RANGE AND SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGIN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NW
GULF FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULDN'T COMPLETELY
SHUTOFF PRECIP CHANCES...BUT SHIFT THEM INTO MORE OF THE USUAL
DIURNAL SCT AFTN/EVNG VARIETY. STILL ANTICIPATE RIDGE TO BE
SUPPRESSED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WRN TROF MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. 47

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BE OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING TONIGHT. FROM THERE THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE
ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIDE LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  87  73  87  72 / 100  20  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  88  73  88  74 /  90  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  85  77  86  78 /  70  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
413 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-262115-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
413 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE BOTH
POSSIBLE. THE BETTER CHANCES OF BOTH WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WIND
DAMAGE AND TORNADOES WILL BOTH BE THREATS.

AT THE BEACH...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND ABOVE NORMAL SURF
HEIGHTS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. PLEASE SEND REPORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING VIA TWITTER OR FACEBOOK AT NWSHOUSTON.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-262115-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
413 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1030 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUSTON                 29.77N  95.39W
05/25/2015                   HARRIS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON AREA. MULTIPLE
            WATER RESCUES. CREEKS AND BAYOUR COMING OUT OF BANKS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500284

42

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1040 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUSTON                 29.77N  95.39W
05/25/2015                   HARRIS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON AREA. MULTIPLE
            WATER RESCUES. CREEKS AND BAYOU COMING OUT OF BANKS.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500284

42

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1100 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUSTON                 29.77N  95.39W
05/25/2015                   HARRIS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOMES FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON AREA. 5 TO 7
            INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500285

42