Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

June 2, 2015Davie County, Iredell County, Rowan County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 2, 2015, 6:36 PM EDT for Davie County, Iredell County, Rowan County, North Carolina. It was in force for 54 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jun 2, 2015, 6:36 PM EDT (22:36 UTC)
Expired
Jun 2, 2015, 7:30 PM EDT
In force
54 min
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon

Counties Davie County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Rowan County, NC

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jun 2, 7:20 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGMocksville, NCMANY TREES DOWN IN MOCKSVILLE WITH A FEW ON HOUSES.
Jun 2, 7:20 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGMocksville, NCWE RECEIVED AT LEAST 2 REPORTS...ONE A CALL IN AND AT LEAST ONE THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA OF SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN MOCKSVILLE. THE MAN WHO CALLED IN DROVE THROUGH TOWN AND SAW AT LEAST 5 TREES DOWN.
Jun 2, 7:25 PM EDTHAIL 0.5Mocksville, NCA SHOWER OF HAIL LASTED FOR SEVERAL MINUTES WITH HAIL SIZE OF PEA TO MARBLE SIZED AND REPORTS OF THE HAIL ACCUMULATING AT LEAST A FEW INCHES DEEP.
Jun 2, 7:30 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGMocksville, NCEM REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES DOWN NEAR MAIN STREET IN THE CITY OF MOCKSVILLE
Jun 2, 7:35 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG5 Ene Mocksville, NCONE TREE FELL ON POWER LINES ALONG CORNATZER ROAD. THEY HAD A LITTLE PEA SIZED HAIL BUT IT WAS VERY BRIEF.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 44 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2015-06-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 103 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2015-06-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 8 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
103 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-48 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
881 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
3 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

469 
WUUS52 KGSP 022236
SVRGSP
NCC059-097-159-022330-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0055.150602T2236Z-150602T2330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  DAVIE COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 636 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER STATESVILLE...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...TROUTMAN...BERMUDA RUN...HARMONY...
  TURNERSBURG...OLIN...COOL SPRINGS...SCOTTS AND FARMINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. BRIEF LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3581 8057 3566 8091 3583 8105 3605 8078
      3605 8050 3606 8047 3606 8046 3603 8044
      3599 8042 3597 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 227DEG 23KT 3581 8090 

$$

MOORE
3 follow-up statements
132 
WWUS52 KGSP 022251
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NCC059-097-159-022330-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-150602T2330Z/
ROWAN NC-IREDELL NC-DAVIE NC-
651 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ROWAN...NORTHEASTERN IREDELL AND DAVIE COUNTIES...

AT 651 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF STATESVILLE...OR 6
MILES SOUTH OF HARMONY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOCKSVILLE...BERMUDA RUN...HARMONY...TURNERSBURG...OLIN...COOL
SPRINGS...FARMINGTON...SHEFFIELD AND STATESVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. BRIEF LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3581 8057 3570 8082 3591 8094 3605 8078
      3605 8050 3606 8047 3606 8046 3603 8044
      3599 8042 3597 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 227DEG 23KT 3588 8081 

$$

MOORE
043 
WWUS52 KGSP 022312
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
712 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NCC059-097-159-022330-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-150602T2330Z/
ROWAN NC-IREDELL NC-DAVIE NC-
712 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ROWAN...NORTHEASTERN IREDELL AND DAVIE COUNTIES...

AT 711 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED THREE MILES WEST OF MOCKSVILLE... 
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOCKSVILLE...BERMUDA RUN...HARMONY...SHEFFIELD...FARMINGTON AND COOL
SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. BRIEF LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8068 3598 8081 3605 8070 3605 8050
      3606 8047 3606 8046 3603 8044 3599 8042
      3597 8040 3581 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 233DEG 29KT 3589 8059 

$$

MOORE
120 
WWUS52 KGSP 022323
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
723 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NCC097-159-022331-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-150602T2330Z/
ROWAN NC-IREDELL NC-
723 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ROWAN AND
NORTHEASTERN IREDELL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ROWAN 
AND IREDELL COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3581 8057 3582 8058 3582 8059 3584 8063
      3584 8066 3585 8067 3586 8067 3586 8070
      3605 8069 3605 8050 3606 8047 3606 8046
      3599 8042 3597 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 227DEG 21KT 3592 8055 

$$

NCC059-022330-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-150602T2330Z/
DAVIE NC-
723 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR DAVIE COUNTY...

AT 721 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER MOCKSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FARMINGTON...ALSO 
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOCKSVILLE...BERMUDA RUN...SHEFFIELD AND FARMINGTON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. BRIEF LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3581 8057 3582 8058 3582 8059 3584 8063
      3584 8066 3585 8067 3586 8067 3586 8070
      3605 8069 3605 8050 3606 8047 3606 8046
      3599 8042 3597 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 227DEG 21KT 3592 8055 

$$

MOORE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 2, 4:13 PM EDT, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 2, 4:13 PM EDT, 2 hours 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
HEADLINE THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATE A BROAD REGION OF SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG...AMONGST
25-30KTS EFF SHEAR.  THUS...EXPECTING CURRENT ACTIVITY TO SUSTAIN
AND PERHAPS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
TRIGGER NEW CONVECTION.  THEREFORE TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST
RECENT RADAR COVERAGE WHICH FEATURED THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUBSEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  MOST REPORTS AROUND THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH SAID
CONVECTION HAVE FEATURED PEA SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-40MPH RANGE.  WITH THAT SAID...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HWO AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME
NEAR TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 150 PM...THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACRS THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACRS THE CWFA...WHICH
IS NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE. SO EXPECT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION THRU THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST CAMS SHOW
MARGINAL ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES OFF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ACRS THE PIEDMONT. SO A SMALL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL
CONTINUE. ALSO...SOME CELLS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO TRAIN...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLD FLOODING IS ALSO A THREAT. TEMPS ARE
CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 80S ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND MID TO UPR 70S IN
THE MTNS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW IS FCST TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER WEAK BUT PERSISTENT Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. MEANWHILE...A 1025 MB SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ACRS NEW
ENGLAND...NOSING A WEDGE-LIKE ISOBAR CONFIGURATION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEDGE FRONT OVER THE CWFA...ENHANCING AN EASTERLY LLVL WIND ACRS THE
NC PIEDMONT. THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST A CHC OF
LINGERING SHWRS OVERNIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTM OR TWO
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL FORCING DOESN/T LOOK TOO THREATENING FOR HEAVY
RAIN...BUT AN ISOLD THREAT WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE GIVEN THE WET GROUND. TEMPS WILL BE HELD A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR
MASS.

WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL ONLY INCH
SLIGHTLY EAST THRU THE DAY...KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER THE PVA SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACRS MOST OF THE CWFA ATOP THE WEAK WEDGE. THIS CLOUD COVER
SHUD SCATTER OUT ACCORDING TO THE GUIDANCE...AS IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
TRUE COLD AIR DAMMING. HOWEVER WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
PERSIST LONGEST ACRS THE I-40 CORRIDOR...SO THEY MAY STAY CLOUDY AND
MORE STABLE. THE REST OF THE AREA IS PROGGED TO BECOME WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOT-GUN CONVECTION. THERE
IS LESS SHEAR AND INSTBY IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS THAN TUESDAY/S...SO
EXPECT A SMALLER SEVERE THREAT. STORMS MAY BE
SLOW-MOVING...HOWEVER...SO A HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLD FLOODING THREAT
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
CLOUDS...WITH ABOUT A 10 DEG GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUE...GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ONLY
SLOWLY FILLING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON A CAD LIKE CONFIGURATION. EVEN
THO COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AS
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER. STILL...FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH
TO HELP CONVECTION DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE. SHEAR
AND DCAPE WILL BE LOWER AS WELL...BUT PW VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SVR STORM CHC TO BE LOWER...BUT CHC OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE HIGHER. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRI LEAVING A
WEAK NWLY FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN BUT REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE
NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MODE WITH HIGHEST POP FAVORING THE MTNS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DCAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHER. SVR CHC AND HEAVY RAIN CHC WILL PROBABLY EVEN
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THU WILL RISE TO
AROUND NORMAL FOR FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE LONG LIVED UPPER LOW FINALLY
OPENING BACK UP TO THE MEAN FLOW AS IT LIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. AS WE MOVE INTO LATE SUN AND THEN
MON...THE LONG RANGE MODELS AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND DIG
ANOTHER UPPER TROF DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE
WARM SEASON...THE TROF WONT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO HAVE
MUCH DIRECT INFLUENCE ON OUR FCST AREA...BUT IT WILL HELP SUPPRESS
TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.

AT THE SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT AS DEEP LYR MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE FCST
AREA. AS WE MOVE INTO SUN AND THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EAST...A BRIEF
WEDGE PATTERN TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH
GETS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND A LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MON. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA BY LATE MON WITH SOME DEGREE OF DRYING AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT A
SOLID CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP
ABOVE CLIMO ON DAYS 6 AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
MODERATE INSTBY AND AN UPPER LOW PROVIDING LIFT. COVERAGE SHUD
CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD BY EARLY EVENING...THEN
START TO WANE. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING NW TOWARD
KCLT. HAVE GONE WITH A TEMPO FOR THE FIRST FOUR HOURS OF THE 18Z
TAF. FROM THERE...EXPECT CONVECTION OFF THE BLUE RIDGE TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...SO WILL GO WITH
PREVAILING TSRA. OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM THE CONVECTION. THEN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BEFORE DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CIGS WILL LIKELY BE IFR...BUT
SOME GUIDANCE HAS IT AT MVFR. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT...BUT
SLOWLY...LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTH DIRECTION
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE NE OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE TO
5-8 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT ABOVE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS HOW TO HANDLE
INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. KAVL WILL LIKELY BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTED BY TSRA AT START OF TAF. THE OTHER SITES WILL ALSO AT SOME
POINT BETWEEN ABOUT 18-22Z. FROM THERE...GUIDANCE HAS CONVECTION
SLIDE EAST ACRS THE PIEDMONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF PREVAILING
TSRA. CONVECTION SHUD DIMINISH LATE EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT. SOME
LINGERING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO KEEP A MENTION. BEFORE DAYBREAK...GUIDANCE
SHOWS STRATUS DEVELOPING...ESP ACRS NC...AS HIGH PRES SURGES FROM
THE NORTH...SWITCHING THE LOW LVL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST. IFR TO MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KHKY AND KAVL. THE
STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER AND LIFT TOWARD END OF 18Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THRU AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE. SO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORNING STRATUS AND FOG
WILL ALSO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER WET GROUND...THRU
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   72%     HIGH  89%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       MED   69%     HIGH  95%     MED   73%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH  82%     MED   64%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH  90%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   77%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 2, 4:15 PM EDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-032015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT...BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE LIKELY AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 2, 5:39 PM EDT, 57 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
539 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NCZ035-036-056-502-022215-
ALEXANDER NC-IREDELL NC-CATAWBA NC-GREATER CALDWELL NC-
539 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CALDWELL...CENTRAL CATAWBA...NORTHWESTERN IREDELL AND ALEXANDER
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 538 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HICKORY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CATAWBA COUNTY NEAR CONOVER MAY
ALSO BECOME SEVERE BY 6 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKORY...NEWTON...TAYLORSVILLE...ST. STEPHENS...CONOVER...
LONGVIEW...GRANITE FALLS...BETHLEHEM...STONY POINT AND CLAREMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAKE HICKORY IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS. MOVE TO
SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 8081 3566 8115 3563 8131 3570 8141
      3577 8137 3576 8138 3576 8140 3579 8146
      3599 8133 3603 8126 3604 8119 3603 8117
      3604 8113 3603 8107 3605 8101
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 224DEG 15KT 3576 8132

MOORE
Local storm report, Jun 2, 5:53 PM EDT, 43 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
553 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             5 NW SPARTANBURG        35.00N 81.99W
06/02/2015  E0.50 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

0545 PM     HAIL             3 NE LYMAN              34.98N 82.09W
06/02/2015  E1.00 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

CGANT
Special weather statement, Jun 2, 6:03 PM EDT, 33 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NCZ068-508-022245-
CLEVELAND NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-
603 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 603 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES WEST OF SHELBY...OR OVER BOILING SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHELBY...BOILING SPRINGS...LAWNDALE...POLKVILLE...ELLENBORO...
LATTIMORE...MOORESBORO...KINGSTOWN...FALLSTON AND CAROLEEN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3540 8145 3517 8161 3518 8186 3550 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 201DEG 16KT 3524 8171

MOORE
Local storm report, Jun 2, 6:06 PM EDT, 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
606 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             BETHLEHEM               35.81N 81.29W
06/02/2015  E0.75 INCH       ALEXANDER          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL AND LOTS OF RAIN WITH SOME LOW SPOTS IN
            THE ROAD WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES DEEP OF WATER FLOW.

&&

OUTLAW
Local storm report, Jun 2, 6:16 PM EDT, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             4 NE CLAREMONT          35.76N 81.09W
06/02/2015  E1.00 INCH       CATAWBA            NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

CGANT
Special weather statement, Jun 2, 6:17 PM EDT, 19 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
617 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NCZ508-SCZ007-008-022245-
GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-SPARTANBURG SC-CHEROKEE SC-
617 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
RUTHERFORD...NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 616 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SPARTANBURG...OR OVER USC UPSTATE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...BOILING SPRINGS...COWPENS...MAYO...CHESNEE...
USC UPSTATE...CEDAR SPRINGS...COWPENS NATIONAL BATTLEFIELD AND PRIME
OUTLET MALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8206 3527 8189 3520 8176 3518 8177
      3518 8174 3511 8162 3489 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 215DEG 17KT 3500 8193

MOORE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 1, 9:05 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPLincoln25 min
Jun 1, 9:41 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPLincoln34 min
Jun 2, 12:23 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAvery37 min
Jun 2, 12:55 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPTransylvania35 min
Jun 2, 1:14 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPTransylvania31 min
Jun 2, 1:58 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPHenderson32 min
Jun 2, 2:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBuncombe, Henderson, Transylvania40 min
Jun 2, 2:24 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMecklenburg36 min
Jun 2, 2:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCabarrus, Mecklenburg, Union39 min
Jun 2, 2:50 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPHenderson40 min
Jun 2, 2:54 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPTransylvania36 min
Jun 2, 3:02 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAvery28 min
Jun 2, 3:15 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion30 min
Jun 2, 3:19 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPJackson26 min
Jun 2, 3:27 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMcDowell33 min
Jun 2, 4:38 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAlexander37 min
Jun 2, 5:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRutherford29 min
Jun 2, 5:29 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPAlexander3 hr
Jun 2, 5:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPPolk, Rutherford42 min
Jun 2, 5:39 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAlexander, Catawba36 min
Jun 2, 5:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPAlexander, Catawba, Iredell41 min
Jun 2, 6:03 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCleveland42 min
Jun 2, 6:55 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPSwain65 min
Jun 2, 7:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPDavie31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2015Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.