River Flood Warning 23, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1011 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EST...THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMIZED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND VEER. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...PRECIP...AND WARM
PROFILES...APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION
THUS FAR. HOWEVER...CONTINUED S TO SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERMIT THE
FOCUS OF ONGOING AND NEW HYDRO CONCERNS TO FOCUS MORE SOLIDLY ON THE
MTNS AND THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS GOING FORWARD. THE FLASH
FLOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT...BUT THE LANDSLIDE WORDING WILL
BE BEEFED UP FOR LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE REST
OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
WILL THREATEN RECORDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 35 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL THREATEN RECORDS FOR HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM THURSDAY...ON FRIDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ROCKIES. AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE SOUTHWEST USA...
WHILE NORTHERN STREAM PROGRESSES AND GOES OUT OF PHASE.  BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE UPPER LOW IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MX...WHILE THE ATLANTIC
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRESSES SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST USA. THIS PATTERN
RESULTS IN THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING DIRECTED WELL TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE...ON FRIDAY A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH TO THE OH AND
POTOMAC RIVER VALLEYS ON SATURDAY...WHILE GULF INFLOW CONTINUES. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GULF INFLOW PERSISTING.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY ASPECT OF GULF INFLOW WILL HAMPER ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...LIMITING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ON FRIDAY...AND THERE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY DURING THE DAY. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ON SATURDAY...SHEAR WILL BE MORE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH MINIMUMS EVEN MORE EXTREME DUE TO ROBUST
MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY MORNING AN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE WILL
EXTEND WEST TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MX. THE TROUGH MOVES OVER TX ON MONDAY...AND
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE BASE TO THE WEST TROUGH. THIS LOW NEVER DEEPENS LIKE THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND FILLS AS IT CROSSES THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH O THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE
GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE GULF STATES. THE
CAROLINA FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT
TO OUR WEST CROSSES THE GULF STATES...AND GULF INFLOW INCREASES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND
STALLS OVER THE PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NE ALONG AND OVER THE BOUNDARY.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO MONDAY AHEAD TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...
LOW LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY BE FROM THE SE...WITH LITTLE UPGLIDE UP
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...
DESPITE THE PROLONGED NATURE OF MOIST INFLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH A DOWNWARD TRENDS AS HEIGHT FALL
ALOFT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...OCCASIONAL SHRA WILL MOVE QUICKLY OVER THE AIRFIELD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WITH TSRA VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME. WILL
ADDRESS ANY UPSTREAM LIGHTNING REPORTS SHORT FUSE WITH NARROW WINDOW
OF TEMPO TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
THEN MVFR VSBY AND IFR CIGS LATE THIS EVENING IN LIGHT SHRA...WITH
IFR VSBY AND LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SLY WIND CONTINUES THRU MUCH
OF THE DAY THEN DIMINISHES THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILL TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR TEMPO IFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL TSRA THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE MORNING. OCCASIONAL LOW END S TO SW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. MORE SOLID IFR TO LIFT CIGS WITH IFR VSBY ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AT TIMES
COUPLED WITH IFR OR WORSE VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS. MODEST
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       MED   70%     MED   72%     LOW   48%     MED   71%
KGSP       MED   76%     MED   62%     MED   71%     HIGH  84%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     MED   76%     MED   61%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       MED   65%     MED   66%     LOW   54%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       LOW   51%     MED   66%     LOW   54%     HIGH  82%
KAND       MED   66%     LOW   59%     MED   67%     HIGH  84%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY DECEMBER 24...

 AVL   72    1955
 CLT   71    1982...1931
 GSP   71    1964

DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY DECEMBER 25...

 AVL   67    1955...1944...1904
 CLT   77    1955
 GSP   78    1955

DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY DEC 23...

 AVL   59    1990
 CLT   63    1990
 GSP   61    1990

DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY DEC 24...

 AVL   54    1932
 CLT   56    1891
 GSP   55    1931

DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY DEC 25...

 AVL   55    1982
 CLT   62    1932
 GSP   56    1964

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG/RWH
CLIMATE...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-251545-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1041 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1015 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

NCZ064-065-509-510-SCZ002-003-005>007-241545-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-HENDERSON NC-EASTERN POLK NC-POLK MOUNTAINS NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-
SPARTANBURG SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
1015 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TRANSYLVANIA...POLK...SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON...NORTHEASTERN
PICKENS...NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1045 AM EST...

AT 1014 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF PICKENS...OR NEAR TABLE ROCK STATE PARK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PICKENS...COLUMBUS...TRAVELERS REST...LANDRUM...SLATER-MARIETTA...
INMAN...TRYON...CAMPOBELLO...SALUDA AND LAKE BOWEN.

LAT...LON 3509 8195 3486 8276 3505 8288 3539 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1514Z 239DEG 49KT 3502 8265

WJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1018 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

NCZ035>037-056-057-069-241545-
DAVIE NC-ROWAN NC-IREDELL NC-CATAWBA NC-ALEXANDER NC-LINCOLN NC-
1018 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ROWAN...
CATAWBA...IREDELL...SOUTHEASTERN ALEXANDER...EASTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHWESTERN DAVIE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM EST...

AT 1017 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER NEWTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKORY...STATESVILLE...NEWTON...SALISBURY...MOORESVILLE...ST.
STEPHENS...CONOVER...LONGVIEW...MAIDEN AND WESTPORT.

LAT...LON 3571 8047 3543 8115 3571 8141 3574 8138
      3606 8086 3605 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 1517Z 239DEG 49KT 3565 8122

WJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 AM     FLOOD            1 ENE CLAYTON           34.88N 83.39W
12/24/2015                   RABUN              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER OVER ROADWAY ON WARWOMAN RD NEAR MOUNTAIN VIEW
            HEALTH CARE CENTER. ROAD REPORTED TO BE IMPASSABLE.

&&

LVISIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 AM     FLOOD            SYLVA                   35.37N 83.22W
12/24/2015                   JACKSON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TUCKASEGEE RIVER NEAR SYLVA OUT OF BANKS IN LOW-LYING AND
            POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

0851 AM     FLOOD            SYLVA                   35.37N 83.22W
12/24/2015                   JACKSON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SCOTT CREEK OUT OF BANKS NEAR SYLVA

0851 AM     FLOOD            5 E CULLOWHEE           35.31N 83.08W
12/24/2015                   JACKSON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CANEY FORT CREEK REPORTED OUT OF BANKS

&&

LVISIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

GAZ017-018-026-SCZ001-004-010-241630-
FRANKLIN GA-STEPHENS GA-HABERSHAM GA-GREATER OCONEE SC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-ANDERSON SC-
1052 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF STEPHENS...SOUTHERN
HABERSHAM...NORTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN OCONEE AND WEST CENTRAL
ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM EST...

AT 1052 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF HOMER...OR NEAR BALDWIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOCCOA...SENECA...WALHALLA...CLARKESVILLE...CORNELIA...BALDWIN...
WESTMINSTER...LAVONIA...GUMLOG AND DEMOREST.

LAT...LON 3488 8312 3451 8280 3447 8300 3449 8305
      3444 8308 3437 8339 3443 8338 3446 8340
      3448 8347 3449 8354 3443 8361 3451 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1552Z 240DEG 49KT 3446 8350

WJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1133 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

NCZ068-504-506>508-510-241700-
CLEVELAND NC-GREATER BURKE NC-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS NC-
GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-EASTERN POLK NC-EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-
1133 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN BURKE...
RUTHERFORD...NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND...SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND
NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL NOON EST...

AT 1132 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES WEST OF RUTHERFORDTON...OR 6 MILES EAST OF LAKE LURE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORGANTON...RUTHERFORDTON...SPINDALE...LAKE LURE...CASAR...SOUTH
MOUNTAINS STATE PARK...GLEN ALPINE...CHIMNEY ROCK STATE PARK...
BELWOOD AND DYSARTSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3579 8168 3559 8152 3556 8153 3555 8151
      3551 8151 3527 8211 3539 8220 3540 8220
      3540 8221 3544 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 1632Z 238DEG 49KT 3541 8210

WJM