River Flood Warning 22, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1011 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EST...THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMIZED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND VEER. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...PRECIP...AND WARM
PROFILES...APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION
THUS FAR. HOWEVER...CONTINUED S TO SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERMIT THE
FOCUS OF ONGOING AND NEW HYDRO CONCERNS TO FOCUS MORE SOLIDLY ON THE
MTNS AND THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS GOING FORWARD. THE FLASH
FLOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT...BUT THE LANDSLIDE WORDING WILL
BE BEEFED UP FOR LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE REST
OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
WILL THREATEN RECORDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 35 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL THREATEN RECORDS FOR HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM THURSDAY...ON FRIDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ROCKIES. AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE SOUTHWEST USA...
WHILE NORTHERN STREAM PROGRESSES AND GOES OUT OF PHASE.  BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE UPPER LOW IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MX...WHILE THE ATLANTIC
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRESSES SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST USA. THIS PATTERN
RESULTS IN THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING DIRECTED WELL TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE...ON FRIDAY A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH TO THE OH AND
POTOMAC RIVER VALLEYS ON SATURDAY...WHILE GULF INFLOW CONTINUES. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GULF INFLOW PERSISTING.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY ASPECT OF GULF INFLOW WILL HAMPER ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...LIMITING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ON FRIDAY...AND THERE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY DURING THE DAY. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ON SATURDAY...SHEAR WILL BE MORE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH MINIMUMS EVEN MORE EXTREME DUE TO ROBUST
MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY MORNING AN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE WILL
EXTEND WEST TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MX. THE TROUGH MOVES OVER TX ON MONDAY...AND
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE BASE TO THE WEST TROUGH. THIS LOW NEVER DEEPENS LIKE THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND FILLS AS IT CROSSES THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH O THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE
GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE GULF STATES. THE
CAROLINA FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT
TO OUR WEST CROSSES THE GULF STATES...AND GULF INFLOW INCREASES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND
STALLS OVER THE PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NE ALONG AND OVER THE BOUNDARY.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO MONDAY AHEAD TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...
LOW LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY BE FROM THE SE...WITH LITTLE UPGLIDE UP
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...
DESPITE THE PROLONGED NATURE OF MOIST INFLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH A DOWNWARD TRENDS AS HEIGHT FALL
ALOFT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...OCCASIONAL SHRA WILL MOVE QUICKLY OVER THE AIRFIELD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WITH TSRA VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME. WILL
ADDRESS ANY UPSTREAM LIGHTNING REPORTS SHORT FUSE WITH NARROW WINDOW
OF TEMPO TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
THEN MVFR VSBY AND IFR CIGS LATE THIS EVENING IN LIGHT SHRA...WITH
IFR VSBY AND LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SLY WIND CONTINUES THRU MUCH
OF THE DAY THEN DIMINISHES THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILL TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR TEMPO IFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL TSRA THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE MORNING. OCCASIONAL LOW END S TO SW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. MORE SOLID IFR TO LIFT CIGS WITH IFR VSBY ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AT TIMES
COUPLED WITH IFR OR WORSE VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS. MODEST
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       MED   70%     MED   72%     LOW   48%     MED   71%
KGSP       MED   76%     MED   62%     MED   71%     HIGH  84%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     MED   76%     MED   61%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       MED   65%     MED   66%     LOW   54%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       LOW   51%     MED   66%     LOW   54%     HIGH  82%
KAND       MED   66%     LOW   59%     MED   67%     HIGH  84%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY DECEMBER 24...

 AVL   72    1955
 CLT   71    1982...1931
 GSP   71    1964

DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY DECEMBER 25...

 AVL   67    1955...1944...1904
 CLT   77    1955
 GSP   78    1955

DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY DEC 23...

 AVL   59    1990
 CLT   63    1990
 GSP   61    1990

DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY DEC 24...

 AVL   54    1932
 CLT   56    1891
 GSP   55    1931

DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY DEC 25...

 AVL   55    1982
 CLT   62    1932
 GSP   56    1964

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG/RWH
CLIMATE...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-251145-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
635 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
843 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ062-063-SCZ001-004-005-241430-
STEPHENS GA-RABUN GA-HABERSHAM GA-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-MACON NC-
GREATER OCONEE SC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
843 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN STEPHENS...
HABERSHAM...CENTRAL RABUN...SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN
MACON...OCONEE AND WEST CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM EST...

AT 843 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLEVELAND...OR 6 MILES WEST OF DEMOREST...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOCCOA...SENECA...WALHALLA...CLARKESVILLE...CLAYTON...CORNELIA...
BALDWIN...WESTMINSTER...DEMOREST AND MOUNT AIRY.

LAT...LON 3454 8362 3462 8364 3471 8364 3512 8305
      3509 8303 3505 8306 3503 8301 3503 8299
      3491 8290 3481 8290 3483 8285 3475 8279
      3448 8346 3449 8354 3443 8362 3450 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1343Z 239DEG 48KT 3455 8365

WJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
854 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

NCZ035-036-241415-
IREDELL NC-ALEXANDER NC-
854 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IREDELL AND
NORTHEASTERN ALEXANDER COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM EST...

AT 853 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAYLORSVILLE...LOVE VALLEY...UNION GROVE...VASHTI AND HIDDENITE.

LAT...LON 3605 8069 3603 8070 3586 8114 3602 8125
      3604 8120 3603 8117 3604 8113 3603 8107
      3606 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 1353Z 239DEG 47KT 3599 8112

WJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
913 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLOOD            HIGHLANDS               35.05N 83.20W
12/24/2015                   MACON              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER FLOWING OVER BUCK CREEK RD

0830 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      HIGHLANDS               35.05N 83.20W
12/24/2015                   MACON              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MUDSLIDE REPORTED OVER BUCK CREEK RD.

0830 AM     FLOOD            2 N OTTO                35.09N 83.38W
12/24/2015                   MACON              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            STANDING WATER OVER GEORGIA RD - ROAD IS IMPASSABLE

0830 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      3 ESE FRANKLIN          35.17N 83.32W
12/24/2015                   MACON              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MUSLIDE OVER HIGHLANDS RD NEAR CULLASAJA RIVER

0830 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      3 ENE RAINBOW SPRINGS   35.10N 83.50W
12/24/2015                   MACON              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MUDLSIDE OVER SHADY RIDGE RD.

&&

LVISIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

NCZ035-036-056-068-069-504-241500-
CLEVELAND NC-GREATER BURKE NC-IREDELL NC-CATAWBA NC-ALEXANDER NC-
LINCOLN NC-
929 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN BURKE...
CATAWBA...NORTH CENTRAL CLEVELAND...WEST CENTRAL IREDELL...SOUTHERN
ALEXANDER AND NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM EST...

AT 928 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HICKORY...OR 5 MILES NORTH OF BELWOOD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKORY...NEWTON...TAYLORSVILLE...ST. STEPHENS...CONOVER...
LONGVIEW...BETHLEHEM...ICARD...HILDEBRAN AND STONY POINT.

LAT...LON 3570 8090 3544 8154 3561 8167 3577 8142
      3576 8138 3577 8136 3580 8133 3582 8134
      3597 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 1428Z 240DEG 49KT 3556 8151

WJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1015 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

NCZ064-065-509-510-SCZ002-003-005>007-241545-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-HENDERSON NC-EASTERN POLK NC-POLK MOUNTAINS NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-
SPARTANBURG SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
1015 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TRANSYLVANIA...POLK...SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON...NORTHEASTERN
PICKENS...NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1045 AM EST...

AT 1014 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF PICKENS...OR NEAR TABLE ROCK STATE PARK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PICKENS...COLUMBUS...TRAVELERS REST...LANDRUM...SLATER-MARIETTA...
INMAN...TRYON...CAMPOBELLO...SALUDA AND LAKE BOWEN.

LAT...LON 3509 8195 3486 8276 3505 8288 3539 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1514Z 239DEG 49KT 3502 8265

WJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1018 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

NCZ035>037-056-057-069-241545-
DAVIE NC-ROWAN NC-IREDELL NC-CATAWBA NC-ALEXANDER NC-LINCOLN NC-
1018 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ROWAN...
CATAWBA...IREDELL...SOUTHEASTERN ALEXANDER...EASTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHWESTERN DAVIE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM EST...

AT 1017 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER NEWTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKORY...STATESVILLE...NEWTON...SALISBURY...MOORESVILLE...ST.
STEPHENS...CONOVER...LONGVIEW...MAIDEN AND WESTPORT.

LAT...LON 3571 8047 3543 8115 3571 8141 3574 8138
      3606 8086 3605 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 1517Z 239DEG 49KT 3565 8122

WJM