Tornado Warning 88, NWS Goodland, KS

435 
WWUS53 KGLD 170215
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
815 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

KSC039-065-137-179-170224-
/O.CAN.KGLD.TO.W.0088.000000T0000Z-151117T0230Z/
GRAHAM KS-DECATUR KS-NORTON KS-SHERIDAN KS-
815 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM...SOUTHEASTERN
DECATUR...SOUTHWESTERN NORTON AND NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT.


LAT...LON 3955 10008 3947 10012 3924 10033 3931 10054
      3968 10044 3971 10001
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 204DEG 38KT 3960 10025 

$$

DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
451 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015

A RAPIDLY EVOLVING WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A DYNAMIC
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL GO FROM
SUNNY AND WARM RIGHT NOW TO STORMY WITH CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO A DEVELOPING WINTER
STORM/BLIZZARD TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRIMARY THREAT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE STORMS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. CURRENTLY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN NEW
MEXICO AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA. IT IS THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
SHOULD IGNITE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP IN COLORADO.
SATELLITE IS ALREADY OBSERVING CUMULUS/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE REASON THIS IS IMPORTANT IS IT CONFIRMS
THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTION THAT STORMS FIRE EARLY OVER
COLORADO. THEN...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
LEE TROUGH AXIS/DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST...ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 60 MPH. STORMS MAY INITIALLY
DEVELOP DISCRETELY BEFORE BECOMING A LINEAR QLCS/SQUALL LINE.

THE CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
DISCRETE STORMS LONG ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE A HIGHER TORNADO
THREAT. IN ADDITION...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN THE SQUALL LINE COULD
ALSO POSE A TORNADO THREAT. THE ANTICIPATED WIND SHEAR WILL BE
QUITE STRONG. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF FORCING IS CONCERNING IN
TERMS OF DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT BECAUSE THE FEAR IS A LARGE LINE OF
STORMS DEVELOP BEFORE A HIGHER TORNADO/HAIL THREAT CAN EVOLVE.

THAT BEING SAID...DO THINK THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA-WIDE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...
PARTICULARLY AS THE SQUALL LINE EVOLVES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015

WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT MAJORITY OF OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW HAS DEEPENED OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION AND GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB HANDLING PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION SO FAR.
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND GENERAL
PLACEMENT OF DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP. STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRECIP RATES WITHIN THIS MAIN BAND AND ONCE THIS
TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW...RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR APPEAR
LIKELY. THERE HAS BE A JOG IN GUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH WHICH HAS
ALLOWED FOR A SHIFT IN THIS HEAVIER PRECIP BAND ACROSS OUR NW CWA.
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS STRONG OVERLAP IN HEAVY SNOW SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AND A BROAD AREA OF 7-12 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
IS POSSIBLE. SLOWER MOTION/EARLIER TRANSITION HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND TOWARDS SLOWING DOWN THE EXIT
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND WHILE WINDS INCREASE ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT (EVEN BEYOND THE PERIOD OF THE
CURRENT HAZARDS).

COMPLICATION ARISES IN TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGING OVER ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN EARLIER CHANGE OVER FROM THE
COLORADO STATE LINE AND WEST. HIGHER T/TD VALUES AND THUS HIGHER
WET BULB TEMPS WILL DELAY THIS TRANSITIONS OVER THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA AND LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON SNOW TOTALS FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. STRONGEST WIND AXIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR WHERE BL WINDS 35-45KT ARE ADVERTISED.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO UPGRADE BLIZZARD WATCH TO
WARNING FOR LOCATIONS WHERE BAND IS MOST LIKELY (OUR NW). I
UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT LOCATIONS WHERE
THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONS TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN AND TRACK OF
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL MAY REMAIN JUST NORTH OR WEST. I COULD SEE
NEEDING TO EXPAND THE BLIZZARD WARNING INTO THESE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOWFALL SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ZONAL FLOW THEN DEVELOPS
AND SUPPORT PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS. AIR MASS DOES MODERATE
SLIGHTLY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED BY POSSIBLE
SNOW PACK. AREAS WITHOUT SNOW PACK OR WHERE SNOW MELTS SHOULD HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 50S...HOWEVER WHERE DEEPER SNOW PACK EXISTS HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES.

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE
THAT RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL. THIS IS A RESULT OF
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM.
AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

THERE IS ONE BIG EXCEPTION TO THAT STATEMENT ABOVE. A FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS
THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW. AT THE CURRENT TIME...FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIES WILDLY.
FOR EXAMPLE...A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT BY UP TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...AM NOT CONFIDENT ON THE
FRONT TIMING AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
APPEARS PROBABLE BUT THIS DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MOST OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A SOUTH WINDS RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015

COMPLICATED...RAPIDLY CHANGING AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AREA TRANSITIONS FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO A MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 09Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE SITE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT 09Z IFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO
LIFR/VLIFR IN THE 12Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW AND THE WIND INCREASES.

FOR KMCK...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HERE. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MOVE ACROSS. AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORMS END THERE WILL BE A REPRIEVE IN THE
PRECIPITATION WITH VFR CONDITIONS. BEGINNING AT 11Z IFR CONDITIONS
WILL TRANSITION TO LIFR AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW AND THE WIND
INCREASES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TO 11 PM MST
     /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ002-003-014-015-028-041-042.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TO 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT
     CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001-013-027.

CO...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ080-081.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NEZ079.

&&

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DR/RRH
AVIATION...BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
321 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-171300-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
321 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015 /421 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
AREA UNDER HIGHEST THREAT IS EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER...HOWEVER
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE THE THREATS.

A STRONG WINTER STORM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND TO SHARON SPRINGS
KANSAS. LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING OF THAT
SNOW WILL BE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ON TUESDAY...WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
DUNDY...CHEYENNE ...SHERMAN AND WALLACE COUNTIES FROM TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AGAIN COUNTIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WILL HAVE LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW
WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THAT SNOW. ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION...WIND GUSTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 55 MPH.
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND
TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
615 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             NORTON                  39.84N 99.89W
11/16/2015  M1.00 INCH       NORTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MBULLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
617 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     TORNADO          1 ESE TASCO             39.34N 100.27W
11/16/2015                   SHERIDAN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS A TORNADO JUST SOUTH OF TASCO,
            LOCATION RADAR ESTIMATED. RESIDENCE AND OUTBUILDINGS ARE
            DAMAGED.

&&

TLYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
621 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             GRINNELL                39.12N 100.63W
11/16/2015  E0.75 INCH       GOVE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TLYNCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
726 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

KSZ004-170200-
NORTON KS-
726 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NORTON COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM CST...

AT 726 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF NORTON TO 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF EDMOND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTON...ALMENA AND CALVERT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3961 9994 3988 10006 4000 9993 4000 9963
      3978 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 225DEG 35KT 3986 9998 3972 9992

HUSTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
633 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             NORTON                  39.84N 99.89W
11/16/2015  E0.75 INCH       NORTON             KS   PUBLIC

&&

TLYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
642 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             HOXIE                   39.36N 100.44W
11/16/2015  M1.50 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RHUSTED