Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
537 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOUTS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
WHICH LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TAF FORECASTS. POTENTIAL FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT GLD BEFORE 03Z...BUT THREAT IS CERTAINLY
NOT IMMINENT. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS AT BOTH LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH INITIAL PERIOD BEING VERY UNCERTAIN NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING ANY REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT.
WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE NOTED AT KMCK...IF ANY CLEARING WERE TO
OCCUR SOME FOG POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN DYNAMIC SYSTEM APPROACHING
THIS IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1035 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-041645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1035 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015 /1135 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
303 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

COZ091-032145-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
303 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

AT 301 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16
MILES SOUTH OF STRATTON...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AND CAN EXPECT UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN IN VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KIT
CARSON COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3904 10299 3926 10274 3907 10247 3904 10251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 111DEG 21KT 3907 10267

JN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

KSZ041-042-032145-
GREELEY KS-WICHITA KS-
307 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREELEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN WICHITA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT/445 PM CDT/...

AT 306 PM MDT /406 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRIBUNE...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEOTI...TRIBUNE...HORACE AND SELKIRK.

LAT...LON 3836 10186 3852 10192 3857 10134 3826 10141
      3826 10179
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 161DEG 21KT 3843 10167

JN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
351 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

COZ092-032230-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
351 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM MDT...

AT 350 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF KIT CARSON...OR 18 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE WELLS...
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH...AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL CHEYENNE
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3877 10257 3878 10280 3897 10281 3897 10251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 182DEG 18KT 3885 10269

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 PM MDT MON AUG 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 NNW ARAPAHOE          38.93N 102.20W
08/03/2015                   CHEYENNE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER RUNNING OVER ROAD, WATER IS PUDDLING

&&

CLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
654 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

KSZ041-042-040145-
GREELEY KS-WICHITA KS-
654 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREELEY AND SOUTHERN
WICHITA COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM MDT/845 PM CDT/...

AT 653 PM MDT /753 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEOTI...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

TRAVELERS ON AREA ROADWAYS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS OF PONDING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYDIA.

LAT...LON 3831 10179 3838 10147 3839 10113 3826 10113
      3826 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 266DEG 21KT 3822 10151

JN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
719 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

KSZ041-042-040200-
GREELEY KS-WICHITA KS-
719 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT/900 PM CDT/...

AT 718 PM MDT /818 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF LEOTI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

TRAVELERS ON AREA ROADWAYS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS OF PONDING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEOTI...SELKIRK AND MARIENTHAL.

LAT...LON 3869 10162 3870 10113 3839 10113 3831 10168
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 240DEG 49KT 3844 10148

JN