Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

CURRENTLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA (EXCEPT WESTERN FRINGE OF YUMA
COUNTY) REMAINS UNDER A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH
DESPITE SOME CLEARING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY HAS DELAYED
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

LATEST RUC/18Z NAM/HRRR SUGGESTING NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY TO EJECT
FROM PARENT UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND
23Z LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

AFTER MIDNIGHT CENTER OF WOUND UP UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
YUMA COUNTY WITH WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
1/2 OF THE AREA. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED IN THE 09Z-13Z OR 14Z TIMEFRAME
FROM NEAR WAUNETA TO STRATTON TO KIT CARSON COUNTY. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. ELSEWHERE WINDS
INCREASE FOR MANY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO TO AROUND 50 IN NORTON AND HILL CITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY IN THE MID 40S WEST TO AROUND 60 HILL CITY.

REGARDING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST NOT
QUITE HALF OF YUMA COUNTY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO WOULD SEE FROST CONDITIONS...THIS IS ALSO
THE AREA I AM ANTICIPATING SNOW. SO FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLITES. IF A GREATER AREA OF YUMA COUNTY GETS INTO THE LOW 30S
A FROST HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THERE ARE A FEW FORECAST ASPECTS
THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
UNDER CLEARING SKIES. THESE COMPETING FACTORS INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST AND THUS FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS.
CURRENT FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S RUN WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AND IN THE LOW
30S ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME UPPER 20S
OBSERVED OVER EAST COLORADO WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTING.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST. THIS TIME...LIGHT WINDS ARE LIKELY IN ADDITION
TO CLEAR SKIES. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THESE ARE PRIME
CONDITIONS FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RAPIDLY DROPPING
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST PREDICTS LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
OBSERVATIONS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR MCCOOK NEBRASKA AND NORTON KANSAS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
ONCE AGAIN AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS FROM BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO
ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
INITIALLY...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS ALONG THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...EJECTING OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS BUT CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS
MOISTURE RETURN AND THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO RESUME AS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY RETURN IN EARNEST OVER THE PLAINS. FORECAST
SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY IF FORECAST ELEMENTS COME
TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
200 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING. MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
A FEW TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR
WAUNETA TO STRATTON TO KIT CARSON COLORADO. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL COMBINE WITH THE SNOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE FROST CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE ON GRASSY
SURFACES. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST
CONDITIONS.

FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS
LINE.

FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO HILL CITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
945 PM MDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     TORNADO          5 WSW OBERLIN           39.80N 100.62W
05/09/2015                   DECATUR            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO STILL ON THE GROUND SW OF OBERLIN.

&&

T. LYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1016 PM MDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     TORNADO          5 SSE TRAER             39.87N 100.63W
05/09/2015                   DECATUR            KS   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTS POWER POLES SNAPPED ALONG COUNTY RD
            314 1 MILE NORTH OF 346.

&&

T. LYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1018 PM MDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     TORNADO          6 WSW CEDAR BLUFFS      39.94N 100.65W
05/09/2015                   DECATUR            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS A TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR
            TRAER.

&&

T. LYNCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1122 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

KSZ002-100445-
RAWLINS KS-
1122 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RAWLINS COUNTY UNTIL
1145 PM CDT...

AT 1122 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF LEVANT...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEARDSLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3975 10098 3957 10108 3957 10137 3983 10131
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 196DEG 27KT 3953 10125

JRM

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