Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Goodland, KS

055 
WWUS53 KGLD 242101
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
301 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

KSC199-242130-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-150424T2130Z/
WALLACE KS-
301 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY...

AT 301 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF
WESKAN...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHARON SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3886 10194 3897 10205 3910 10205 3913 10200
      3913 10180 3908 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 326DEG 13KT 3904 10196 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LUNDQUIST

689 
WWUS53 KGLD 242110
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

KSC199-242130-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-150424T2130Z/
WALLACE KS-
310 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY...

AT 310 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF
WESKAN...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHARON SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3886 10194 3897 10205 3910 10205 3913 10200
      3913 10180 3908 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 315DEG 9KT 3904 10196 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LUNDQUIST

222 
WWUS53 KGLD 242121
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
321 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

KSC199-242130-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-150424T2130Z/
WALLACE KS-
321 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY...

AT 320 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF
WESKAN...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHARON SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3886 10194 3897 10205 3904 10205 3912 10192
      3908 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 317DEG 12KT 3900 10193 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LUNDQUIST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN'T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM FOR KMCK...A PESKY LAYER OF MVFR OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE MY MID AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS...ONLY PUT
VCTS MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251700-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1053 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
149 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 NNE WILD HORSE        38.89N 102.96W
04/24/2015                   CHEYENNE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL PERSISTED FOR 5 MINUTES HAS DISSAPATED. VIEWED
            FROM KIT CARSON BY SPOTTER, LOCATION ESTIMATED.

&&

JMARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

COZ092-242100-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
233 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 233 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES NORTH OF KIT CARSON...OR 23 MILES SOUTH OF SEIBERT...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
CHEYENNE COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3904 10287 3904 10269 3889 10267 3888 10287
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 267DEG 7KT 3897 10277

LUNDQUIST