Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT
THE SURFACE A FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWED AN
OVERCAST SKY IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...TRANSITIONING TO MORE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO THE WEST.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA IN THREE DIFFERENT GROUPS.  THE
FIRST GROUP OF STORMS IS MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE NORTHWEST.  STORM ACTIVITY HAS DECLINED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO MOST LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER STABILIZING THE
ENVIRONMENT.  THE SECOND GROUP OF STORMS CONTINUES AS A SCATTERED
GROUP MOVING NORTH TOWARD NEBRASKA OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.  THESE STORMS SEEM TO BE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AS OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM THE STORMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND THEY MOVE FURTHER
FROM THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAT INITIALLY FIRED THE
CONVECTION.  THE THIRD AREA OF STORMS IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE.
WITH THE LOW ALTERING ITS TRACK TO MORE OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION INSTEAD OF NORTH...THE DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED TO
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  THE EASTERN COUNTIES MAY HAVE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST.

THIS EVENING THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST FOLLOWING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.  OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE ONE MORE ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
TROUGH.  AM NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THIS ROUND
DUE TO THE BEST DEFORMATION BEING EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE ANY RAIN OUT.

OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.  FOG MAY ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER THE TWO MODELS THAT ARE INDICATING FOG WERE A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER MODELS THAT DID NOT INDICATE
FOG.  DUE TO EARLY STORM ACTIVITY TODAY HAVE NOT HAD TIME TO
INVESTIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL MUCH SO WILL LEAVE THIS UP TO THE NEXT
SHIFT TO LOOK OVER.

MONDAY MORNING ANY STORMS LINGERING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NIGHT
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A
WEAK 500MB LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AT 700MB.  AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SETUP.  LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL EITHER
BE WEST OR EAST OF THE AREA ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. WITH TIME...MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WARM AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY AND WORKS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THUS...THE OVERALL TREND IS ONE OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER 80S TUESDAY RISING TO THE MIDDLE 90S BY
FRIDAY. PRECIP POTENTIAL IS THERE EARLY ON WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
STORMS TUE-WED NIGHT WITH LESSER CHANCES THU-SAT.

RIGHT OFF THE BAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. NAM SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION DROPPING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. GFS/EC DO NOT INDICATE THIS AND WHILE
THERE IS SOME SUPPORT ALOFT WITH A WEAK RIGHT REAR JET QUADRANT
IN PROXIMITY...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS TO THE EAST AND THERE
IS RIDGING IN MID-UPPER LEVELS BEHIND THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW PLAYED
DOWN PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THIS TIME FRAME BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHC
POPS GOING.

NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING AN MCS ACROSS NEBRASKA DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND POTENTIALLY
MOVING INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AFTER THAT...GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL
HIGHLIGHTING A DECENT AREA OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE AT THAT TIME.

STARTING THURSDAY THINGS WARM UP AND DRY OUT THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COMING LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ISSUES WITH THESE
TAFS WILL BE WHEN/IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WHEN THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT. REGARDING STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AM THINKING
THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF KGLD SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF
THE SITE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF KMCK. ANOTHER LINE OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER YUMA COUNTY CO THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
EAST TOWARD KMCK THIS EVENING. MAIN QUESTION IS WILL THE STORMS
REMAIN INTACT TO KMCK AND IF SO WILL THEY MOVE OVER THE SITE.
WITH THESE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STORMS IN THE KMCK TAF...BUT THE BEST TIME FOR STORM APPROACHING
THE SITE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 3Z.

OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA.
BEHIND IT IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO MVFR. LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH SIMILAR
TIMING AS EARLIER THIS MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JTL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1228 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151830-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1228 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHWEST
KIT CARSON...MOST OF YUMA AND WESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES. ANY OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION ANY...STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY AND MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS CAN BE SENT TO OUR OFFICE BY PHONE OR
THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA.

JTL

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