Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Goodland, KS

338 
WGUS73 KGLD 142147
FFSGLD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
447 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

KSC039-137-150000-
/O.CON.KGLD.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-150615T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DECATUR KS-NORTON KS-
447 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL DECATUR AND WEST CENTRAL NORTON COUNTIES...

AT 447 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE 
FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY IF IT IS NOT 
ALREADY OCCURRING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORCATUR...JENNINGS...CLAYTON AND REAGER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3982 10034 3989 9996 3981 9990 3968 10017
      3968 10033

$$

HUSTED

730 
WGUS73 KGLD 142354
FFSGLD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
654 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

KSC039-137-150003-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-150615T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DECATUR KS-NORTON KS-
654 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL DECATUR AND WEST CENTRAL
NORTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO 
POSE A THREAT. WATER IS FLOWING IN PRAIRIE DOG CREEK BUT THERE WERE 
NO REPORTS OF WATER OVER ROADS OR ANY OTHER FLOODING RELATED 
HAZARDS.

LAT...LON 3982 10034 3989 9996 3981 9990 3968 10017
      3968 10033

$$

HUSTED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT
THE SURFACE A FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWED AN
OVERCAST SKY IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...TRANSITIONING TO MORE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO THE WEST.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA IN THREE DIFFERENT GROUPS.  THE
FIRST GROUP OF STORMS IS MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE NORTHWEST.  STORM ACTIVITY HAS DECLINED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO MOST LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER STABILIZING THE
ENVIRONMENT.  THE SECOND GROUP OF STORMS CONTINUES AS A SCATTERED
GROUP MOVING NORTH TOWARD NEBRASKA OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.  THESE STORMS SEEM TO BE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AS OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM THE STORMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND THEY MOVE FURTHER
FROM THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAT INITIALLY FIRED THE
CONVECTION.  THE THIRD AREA OF STORMS IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE.
WITH THE LOW ALTERING ITS TRACK TO MORE OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION INSTEAD OF NORTH...THE DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED TO
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  THE EASTERN COUNTIES MAY HAVE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST.

THIS EVENING THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST FOLLOWING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.  OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE ONE MORE ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
TROUGH.  AM NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THIS ROUND
DUE TO THE BEST DEFORMATION BEING EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE ANY RAIN OUT.

OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.  FOG MAY ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER THE TWO MODELS THAT ARE INDICATING FOG WERE A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER MODELS THAT DID NOT INDICATE
FOG.  DUE TO EARLY STORM ACTIVITY TODAY HAVE NOT HAD TIME TO
INVESTIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL MUCH SO WILL LEAVE THIS UP TO THE NEXT
SHIFT TO LOOK OVER.

MONDAY MORNING ANY STORMS LINGERING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NIGHT
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A
WEAK 500MB LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AT 700MB.  AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SETUP.  LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL EITHER
BE WEST OR EAST OF THE AREA ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. WITH TIME...MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WARM AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY AND WORKS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THUS...THE OVERALL TREND IS ONE OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER 80S TUESDAY RISING TO THE MIDDLE 90S BY
FRIDAY. PRECIP POTENTIAL IS THERE EARLY ON WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
STORMS TUE-WED NIGHT WITH LESSER CHANCES THU-SAT.

RIGHT OFF THE BAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. NAM SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION DROPPING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. GFS/EC DO NOT INDICATE THIS AND WHILE
THERE IS SOME SUPPORT ALOFT WITH A WEAK RIGHT REAR JET QUADRANT
IN PROXIMITY...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS TO THE EAST AND THERE
IS RIDGING IN MID-UPPER LEVELS BEHIND THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW PLAYED
DOWN PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THIS TIME FRAME BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHC
POPS GOING.

NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING AN MCS ACROSS NEBRASKA DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND POTENTIALLY
MOVING INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AFTER THAT...GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL
HIGHLIGHTING A DECENT AREA OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE AT THAT TIME.

STARTING THURSDAY THINGS WARM UP AND DRY OUT THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COMING LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ISSUES WITH THESE
TAFS WILL BE WHEN/IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WHEN THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT. REGARDING STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AM THINKING
THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF KGLD SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF
THE SITE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF KMCK. ANOTHER LINE OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER YUMA COUNTY CO THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
EAST TOWARD KMCK THIS EVENING. MAIN QUESTION IS WILL THE STORMS
REMAIN INTACT TO KMCK AND IF SO WILL THEY MOVE OVER THE SITE.
WITH THESE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
STORMS IN THE KMCK TAF...BUT THE BEST TIME FOR STORM APPROACHING
THE SITE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 3Z.

OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA.
BEHIND IT IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO MVFR. LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH SIMILAR
TIMING AS EARLIER THIS MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JTL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1228 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151830-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1228 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHWEST
KIT CARSON...MOST OF YUMA AND WESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES. ANY OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION ANY...STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY AND MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS CAN BE SENT TO OUR OFFICE BY PHONE OR
THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA.

JTL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1215 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

COZ090-091-NEZ079-142015-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-DUNDY-
1215 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

CONDITIONS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHWEST KIT CARSON...MOST OF YUMA AND
WESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES.  HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT IS UNKNOWN WHICH IF
ANY STORM WOULD PRODUCE A TORNADO. ANY TORNADOES WHICH DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO POSE A LIMITED THREAT AND ARE OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKER STORMS AND NOT SEEN ON RADAR.

IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO ENSURE YOUR
SAFETY...THEN REPORT IT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 785-899-
7119. LOCAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
STORMS IN THEIR AREA.

LAT...LON 4044 10205 4035 10205 4035 10165 3904 10303
      3904 10316 3956 10315 3957 10280 4007 10279
      4044 10247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 027DEG 3KT 3943 10311

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
148 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

COZ090-142000-
YUMA COUNTY CO-
148 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

AT 147 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HOLYOKE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.  TRAINED SPOTTERS NEAR
HOLYOKE HAVE REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH THIS STORM.  TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL YUMA
COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 265 AND 269.

LAT...LON 4044 10223 4036 10224 4041 10261 4044 10257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 039DEG 20KT 4047 10238

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

COZ090-142045-
YUMA COUNTY CO-
234 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MDT...

AT 233 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16
MILES SOUTH OF HOLYOKE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAUNETA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 255 AND 268.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4043 10237 4039 10213 4015 10230 4016 10254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 358DEG 11KT 4034 10232

HUSTED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
244 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

COZ090-142130-
YUMA COUNTY CO-
244 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...

AT 244 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTH OF WRAY TO 9
MILES NORTH OF ECKLEY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAUNETA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 256 AND 267.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4031 10218 4014 10236 4014 10256 4029 10251
      4043 10233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 016DEG 5KT 4032 10233 4024 10242

HUSTED