Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
446 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

A LOT GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM AND I WILL GET STRAIGHT TO THE
POINT. WE HAVE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS STORMS HAVE
FORMED ALREADY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF KANSAS WITH CAPES OVER 1000
J/KG IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN AND PROBABLY NEAR 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IN SOME
SPOTS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES REACHED THE 70S
UNDER PLENTY OF SUN. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN EASTERN COLORADO MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING. THIS SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY STRONG LARGE-
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND I EXPECT THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE. BY THE TIME
THIS LINE GETS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...THE
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE DIMINISHED BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...OUR THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND AND HAIL
FROM ELEVATED STORMS. ANY STORMS WILL MOVE QUITE QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 45 TO 60 MPH.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO WINTER WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY CONTINUALLY HOLDING BACK ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE COLD AIR. THE NAM IS BRINGING IN THE
COLDER AIR FASTER...BUT I WILL THROW THIS SOLUTION OUT FOR NOW AS
THIS GOES AGAINST WHAT HAS BEEN TRENDING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. I
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US ALL RAIN...EXCEPT SOME SNOW/RAIN MIX IN THE
AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WEST...AND THE LAST HOUR BETWEEN 5 PM AND 6 PM
ON TUESDAY...I FINALLY CONVERT TO ALL SNOW IN PARTS OF WESTERN
DAWSON COUNTY WHERE WE COULD PICK UP SOME SNOW JUST BEFORE WE HIT 6
PM AND THE FORECAST FALLS INTO THE LONG TERM. WE COULD GET DRY
SLOTTED TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH
OUR SOUTHERN CWA. WE DEFINITELY LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY RAIN. AGAIN...OUR FAR WEST MAY FINALLY CONVERT TO SNOW
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR FINALLY MAKES
ITS WAY EAST.

I USED CONSRAW FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS CENTRAL/EAST...WHICH WILL END UP BEING THE
HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CWA TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT RISE A WHOLE LOT...AND PERHAPS SOME IN THE EAST BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES RIGHT
OFF THE BAT...THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING...GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS ISNT TOO BAD WITH THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS LOW WILL TREK
NORTHEASTWARD...ENDING UP NEAR THE NE/IA/MO/KS BORDER AREA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO BE WELL UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUN NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN WHERE THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND LOOKS TO SET UP...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS. A FEW UNCERTAINTIES STILL
REMAIN...WHERE WILL THAT DEFORMATION BAND EXACTLY SET UP...HOW
QUICKLY WILL THE COLDER AIR PUSH IN...AND HOW MUCH OF THE E/SERN CWA
COULD SEE LITTLE PRECIP DUE TO THE DRY SLOT BUILDING IN. CONCERNED
THAT WHILE THE MAIN BAND SHOULD SET UP JUST WEST OF THE CWA AND IT
LOOKS TO BE A TIGHTER SNOWFALL GRADIENT...OUR FAR WRN FRINGE COULD
STILL SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. THATS ALSO IF THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO PUSH IN LIKE SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST. IF THE NAM
PANS OUT...WHICH REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...THOSE
WRN AREAS COULD END UP WITH A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...LITTLE/IF ANYTHING IS FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS AREA...WITH A HALF INCH OR SO POSSIBLE GETTING
NEAR KEARNEY. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...THE
MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING NORTHEAST...WITH MOISTURE/PRECIP
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE INTO OUR CWA...KEEPING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY SC NEB. AS FAR AS HIGHS
GO...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW ENDS UP FALLING THE WEST AND ITS
IMPACTS...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE UPPER 40S IN THE WEST TO LOWER/MID
50S IN THE EAST/SOUTH. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WINDS...THE COLD
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE ERN CWA NEAR 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
STRONGER NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED...AS A
COUPLE OF REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE STARTING
ALREADY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH A REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS TIMING OF LOW CIGS AND
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER THRU THE NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING FALLING TO LIFR AT TIMES...BUT CIGS MAY VARY
DURING TIMES OF PCPN. CHCS FOR TSTMS INCREASE AFTER DARK AND
CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PCPN FOR A TIME
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHCS INCREASE AGAIN BY MID DAY AND INTO THE
AFTN.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

NEZ082-170115-
FURNAS NE-
648 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FURNAS COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM CST...

AT 647 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WILSONVILLE...OR 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOLDREGE...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMBRIDGE...ARAPAHOE...HOLBROOK...WILSONVILLE AND HENDLEY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4035 10020 4034 9978 4001 9994 4000 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 201DEG 33KT 4007 10020

FAY