Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
416 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS SOME HAIL WITH THESE BUT
THEY HAVE SINCE WEAKENED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND EAST.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER IN THE MORNING ON THURSDAY...MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. BY LATE
MORNING THE FRONT IS ABOUT MID WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

THANKS TO PESKY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
DAY...AM GOING TO BE KEEPING THINGS BRIEFER THAN USUAL.

TAKING A BIG-PICTURE OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AND STARTING
WITH PRECIPITATION...ACTUALLY VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN
EXPECTATIONS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS MEANS THAT BY FAR AND
AWAY THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS RIGHT OFF THE BAT
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND EVEN THEN ONLY HAVE 60+ PERCENT
"LIKELY" CHANCES (POPS) ASSIGNED TO FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH MOST AREAS FEATURING LESS CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. AGREE WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK THAT AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA DESERVES THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
DESIGNATION...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS MARGINAL RISK
GETS EXPANDED BACK NORTHWEST A BIT ON UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOKS TO
INCLUDE MORE OF THE CWA. BEYOND THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED AN OFFICIALLY "DRY" (MEANING LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN) FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE FRIDAY-
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BEFORE BRINGING BACK IN SOME PREDICTABLY-
UNCERTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. TO
BE HONEST...CANNOT "GUARANTEE" THAT IT STAYS COMPLETELY DRY ALL
AREAS IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS THE LATEST 18Z NAM
SUGGESTS THAT SOME PESKY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST THE FAR WESTERN CWA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEEP
TROUGH TO THE EAST. IN OTHER WORDS...DON/T BE SHOCKED IF SOME
SPRINKLES OR LOW POPS GET ADDED INTO WESTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...AGAIN VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IF ANYTHING DID NUDGE DOWN HIGH TEMPS VERY
SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
PUT ANOTHER WAY...WE GO FROM A MORE FALL-LIKE FEW DAYS ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY TO A MORE SEASONABLY WARM REGIME INTO MID
WEEK. HIGH TEMPS ONLY AROUND 70 FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN INCREASING
WELL INTO THE 80S ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH SOME
90-DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPS WILL COME A RETURN TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

FINISHING WITH AN EXTREMELY BRIEF LOOK AT DAY-TO-DAY-DETAILS:

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: THE ONLY OFFICIAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS TO COME...AS A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND
MODESTLY STRONG COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: COOLISH WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST BREEZES. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S WITHIN
THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: BREEZES DURING SOUTHERLY WITH TIME...BUT
STILL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERLY BREEZES RE-ESTABLISHED AND TEMPS
RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES VERSUS SATURDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: SOUTH WINDS BECOME BREEZY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM.

TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY PER THE GFS SOLUTION...HAVE BLANKETED LOW-
CONFIDENCE SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS
THROUGH IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WEDNESDAY: KEPT DRY FOR NOW...BUT NO GUARANTEES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS LATE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE NORTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AROUND DAY BREAK TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB

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