Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
631 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...SITTING UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDS THROUGH
ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WHILE WEAK RIDGING IS
SET UP OVER THE SWRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...ITS BEEN ANOTHER NIGHT
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...AS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW/NE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SO FAR...OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY LOWER LEVEL
STRATUS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES...SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR. WILL BE CONTINUING TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES OVER THE COMING
HOURS...WITH A HANDFUL OF SITES IN SC NEB VARYING FROM NEAR 1/4 TO
2 MILES. INSERTED A FOG MENTION THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WITH AN AREAS OF FOG MENTION WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR 1/2SM
POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SC NEB...WHERE RECENT RUNS OF THE
RAP/HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT TO
DEVELOP.

HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ONCE ANY FOG
THAT DOES DEVELOPS DISSIPATES...THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS TURNS
TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NWRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS
WELL AS WITH SHOWING A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OVER ERN
COLORADO...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WRN/NCENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEB. THIS SFC BOUNDARY PROVIDES A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MID/LATE AFTERNOON...DURING PEAK
HEATING/DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES...ACROSS THE NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CHANCES THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AN INCREASED SWRLY LLJ ALSO NOSING
INTO THE REGION. MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES REMAINING
MAINLY OVER SC NEB...WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE
OF THE LLJ LOOKS TO END UP...AND THE HIGHER POPS REMAIN GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF A LOUP CITY TO HEBRON LINE OVERNIGHT.

WHILE OVERALL FORCING IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...MODELS SHOW DEEPER
LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY WOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH THAT A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THE 06Z SPC
DAY 1 OUTLOOK MARGINAL RISK AREA INCLUDES A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR SC NEB
COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...WITH
HIGHS TODAY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

OVERALL...VERY FEW CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
IT LARGELY REMAINED IN TRACK WITH LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
MODEL DATA. DID OPT TO COOL TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...AND ALSO CREEP POPS UP A TAD FOR THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW CLIMB BACK
TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BEYOND THURSDAY.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. DEPENDING ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS TO BE NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THAT SAID...OVERALL
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS FAIRLY MEAGER...SO CONVECTION DURING
THE DAYTIME WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUT EXPECT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO HELP MAINTAIN SOME
ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO ENCOMPASS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN
FROM THE EAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO THEN
SLOWLY MODIFY THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WHILE NOT OVERLY WARM...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECT TO CROSS
THE LOCAL AREA ON OR ABOUT WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER AIR AND ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CATEGORIES THROUGH
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS PATCHY FOG AND OCCASIONAL LOW CEILINGS CAUSE
FLUCTUATIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS. ONCE THAT DISSIPATES...HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH TIME AS SFC LOW PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
OVER ERN COLORADO. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE PERIOD...AND BASED ON MOST RECENT MODELS...DID MOVE UP
THE VCTS TIME FROM EARLY EVENING TO MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1142 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
101200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1142 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST IN THE NORTHWEST AND
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO YORK
NEBRASKA. HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THURSDAY...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSCEOLA TO
CAMBRIDGE NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON HOURS AND
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ALMA
TO YORK NEBRASKA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
646 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

NEZ062>064-075>077-085>087-091330-
HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND ISLAND...AURORA...YORK...
HASTINGS...SUTTON...HARVARD...CLAY CENTER...EDGAR...FAIRFIELD...
GENEVA...EXETER...FAIRMONT...RED CLOUD...BLUE HILL...BLADEN...
SUPERIOR...NELSON...HEBRON...DESHLER
646 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

...FOG CAUSING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING...

FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AND IT
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES NEAR OR GREATER THAN ONE MILE...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE VISIBILITIES DROP DOWN TO
NEAR ONE QUARTER OF A MILE. THIS FOG COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS AND THOSE TRAVELING THIS MORNING SHOULD USE
CAUTION...ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION...AND
PREPARE FOR QUICKLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
718 AM CDT WED SEP 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             3 N SHICKLEY            40.46N 97.72W
09/07/2015  E0.88 INCH       FILLMORE           NE   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT FROM MONDAY EVENING.

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
726 AM CDT WED SEP 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     HAIL             4 WSW DAVENPORT         40.29N 97.88W
09/07/2015  E0.88 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   PUBLIC

0232 PM     HAIL             6 SE DAVENPORT          40.25N 97.73W
09/07/2015  E0.88 INCH       THAYER             NE   COCORAHS

            NERAIN OBSERVER REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL FROM 232-238
            PM.

0239 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSW HEBRON            40.11N 97.62W
09/07/2015  E65.00 MPH       THAYER             NE   STORM CHASER

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HEBRON                  40.17N 97.59W
09/07/2015                   THAYER             NE   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT FROM MONDAY. SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES AND A
            FEW ENTIRE TREES BLOWN DOWN IN TOWN...VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
            POSTS. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR DATA.

0255 PM     HAIL             BELVIDERE               40.25N 97.56W
09/07/2015  M2.00 INCH       THAYER             NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

0313 PM     HAIL             2 E GILEAD              40.15N 97.38W
09/07/2015  M2.50 INCH       THAYER             NE   PUBLIC

            ADJUSTED LOCATION AND TIME SLIGHTLY FROM ORIGINAL LSR.
            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTO. REPORTS OF SEVERAL WINDOWS
            BROKEN OUT OF HOMES IN THE AREA.

0315 PM     HAIL             ALEXANDRIA              40.25N 97.39W
09/07/2015  E1.50 INCH       THAYER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIME EST FM RADAR.

0805 PM     HAIL             3 N SHICKLEY            40.46N 97.72W
09/07/2015  E0.88 INCH       FILLMORE           NE   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT FROM MONDAY EVENING. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR DATA.

0905 PM     HAIL             2 S HASTINGS            40.56N 98.39W
09/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       ADAMS              NE   PUBLIC

0908 PM     HAIL             1 E HASTINGS            40.59N 98.37W
09/07/2015  M0.88 INCH       ADAMS              NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&
SUMMARY OF HAIL/WIND REPORTS RECEIVED FROM LABOR DAY, MONDAY, SEP. 7

PFANNKUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1136 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

NEZ060-091700-
DAWSON NE-
1136 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTY UNTIL
NOON CDT...

AT 1136 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR EDDYVILLE...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF LEXINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDDYVILLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4105 9947 4099 9943 4089 9978 4105 9990
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 241DEG 26KT 4102 9974

JCB