Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SOME REPREAVE FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY MID-WEEK.

THE MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AMPLE SUNSHINE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WHICH HAS
INCREASED THE TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
CAPE VALUES HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD DRY LINE IS
PRESENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BOTH FEATURES PROVIDE CONFLUENCE AND WILL
LEAD TO STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINE
TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY STORMS WILL BE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS...TO BONHAM
LINE. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT STORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...AS SOIL MOISTURE
IS VERY HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WHILE STORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT VERY HIGH BECAUSE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TOO STRONG...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE COMES INTO PLAY ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME REGARDING FLOODING
POTENTIAL...SINCE THE AREA CANNOT TAKE ON TOO MUCH MORE WATER
WITHOUT CAUSING PROBLEMS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BRING WITH
IT RENEWED RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH...RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DOMINATE AND HELP US DRY OUT...FOR AT LEAST A
DAY OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
IFR CONDITIONS ARE HANGING ON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS. WE EXPECT THE IFR
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AND FINALLY LIFT
TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE INITIATION
POINT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL WEST OF NORTH
TEXAS ON THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO IMPACT
ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS BETWEEN 01 AND 04Z. SINCE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...WE WILL ONLY MENTION STORMS IN THE
VICINITY.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  87  70  85  70 /  30  30  20  40  40
WACO, TX              72  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  69  84  69 /  40  30  30  30  30
DENTON, TX            69  86  70  84  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  85  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
DALLAS, TX            72  88  72  85  71 /  30  30  20  40  40
TERRELL, TX           72  87  71  86  71 /  30  30  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  86  71  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  87  70  83  67 /  30  20  20  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
337 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BONHAM TO DALLAS TO
GOLDTHWAITE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. .

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE BEST STORM CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING AND ENHANCE THE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BONHAM TO DALLAS TO
GOLDTHWAITE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
535 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TXZ100-262330-
YOUNG TX-
535 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN YOUNG COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM CDT...

AT 534 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ELBERT...OR 8 MILES WEST OF OLNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLNEY AND NEWCASTLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3340 9895 3339 9846 3329 9854 3319 9873
      3319 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 214DEG 29KT 3332 9890

15-BAIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             6 NE BRECKENRIDGE       32.81N  98.83W
05/26/2015  E1.00 INCH       STEPHENS           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 67 5 MILES NORTH OF HWY 180

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
549 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TORNADO          1 NNW BRAD              32.76N  98.51W
05/26/2015                   PALO PINTO         TX   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN JUST NORTH
            OF BRAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
558 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CADDO                   32.72N  98.67W
05/26/2015                   STEPHENS           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREES DOWN ON PARK ROAD 33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     HAIL             14 WSW METCALF GAP      32.64N  98.65W
05/26/2015  E0.75 INCH       PALO PINTO         TX   PUBLIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
605 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TORNADO          1 N BRAD                32.76N  98.50W
05/26/2015                   PALO PINTO         TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHED DESTROYED AS TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN