Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SOME REPREAVE FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY MID-WEEK.

THE MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AMPLE SUNSHINE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WHICH HAS
INCREASED THE TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
CAPE VALUES HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD DRY LINE IS
PRESENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BOTH FEATURES PROVIDE CONFLUENCE AND WILL
LEAD TO STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINE
TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY STORMS WILL BE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS...TO BONHAM
LINE. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT STORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...AS SOIL MOISTURE
IS VERY HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WHILE STORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT VERY HIGH BECAUSE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TOO STRONG...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE COMES INTO PLAY ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME REGARDING FLOODING
POTENTIAL...SINCE THE AREA CANNOT TAKE ON TOO MUCH MORE WATER
WITHOUT CAUSING PROBLEMS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BRING WITH
IT RENEWED RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH...RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DOMINATE AND HELP US DRY OUT...FOR AT LEAST A
DAY OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
IFR CONDITIONS ARE HANGING ON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS. WE EXPECT THE IFR
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AND FINALLY LIFT
TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE INITIATION
POINT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL WEST OF NORTH
TEXAS ON THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO IMPACT
ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS BETWEEN 01 AND 04Z. SINCE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...WE WILL ONLY MENTION STORMS IN THE
VICINITY.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  87  70  85  70 /  30  30  20  40  40
WACO, TX              72  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  69  84  69 /  40  30  30  30  30
DENTON, TX            69  86  70  84  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  85  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
DALLAS, TX            72  88  72  85  71 /  30  30  20  40  40
TERRELL, TX           72  87  71  86  71 /  30  30  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  86  71  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  87  70  83  67 /  30  20  20  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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