Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WAS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AS PER THE 18Z FWD SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED
THAT A CAP OF WARM AIR WAS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WE
EXPECT THE CAP TO BREAK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. WE ALSO EXPECT STORMS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD IN A LINE AS THE MOVE NORTHEAST. THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THERE IS ALSO A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE. ALL
STORMS WILL ALSO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE HEAVY RAIN
FELL ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENT LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
NORTH TEXAS MAY INITIALLY START OUT THE MORNING WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD RECOVER THROUGH THE DAY AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. STORMS ON SATURDAY WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO REMAINING MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE THE BEST
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ON SATURDAY SINCE IT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON
WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO ENTER INTO THE STATE. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HAVE A GOOD
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WE WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY BASED ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STALL THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
MONDAY NIGHT AND LEAVE IT NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. LIFT
OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP SOME GOOD RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MVFR CIGS.

ALL OF THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN VFR CATEGORY BY 18-19Z.
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING...EXCEPT MAY DROP INTO
MVFR CATEGORY WITHIN SHOWERS/STORMS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN OVERNIGHT BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS MAY DELAY THE ONSET FROM
THE CURRENT TAF TIMING WHICH IS AROUND 05Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE
AIRPORTS FROM 22-23Z THROUGH 05-06Z. WE WILL BE WATCHING
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AMEND THE TAF IF
NEEDED TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING OF STORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE AIRPORTS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR
HAIL...WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. AFTER A
BREAK OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SHIELD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

JLDUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  81  70  82  65 /  50  60  60  80  70
WACO, TX              70  83  69  81  67 /  40  50  50  70  70
PARIS, TX             69  79  70  80  65 /  50  50  60  80  70
DENTON, TX            69  78  69  77  59 /  50  60  60  80  70
MCKINNEY, TX          70  80  68  82  64 /  50  60  60  80  70
DALLAS, TX            72  80  71  82  67 /  50  60  60  80  70
TERRELL, TX           71  81  70  84  69 /  40  50  60  80  70
CORSICANA, TX         71  83  72  83  68 /  40  40  40  70  70
TEMPLE, TX            71  84  71  83  70 /  30  40  40  70  70
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  81  70  78  61 /  50  60  60  70  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>104.

&&

82/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
344 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH FLOODING...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE THE THREATS.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20 TO THE RED RIVER WHERE GROUNDS ARE ALREADY
SATURATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES DIMINISH HEADED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JLDUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N VALLEY VIEW         33.54N  97.17W
05/07/2015                   COOKE              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            *** 1 FATAL *** A 36 YO MALE DIED WHEN HIS CAR WAS SWEPT
            OFF THE ROAD BY FLOOD WATERS ON SPRING CREEK RD NEAR THE
            RAILROAD TRACKS WEST OF I-35

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
504 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXZ158-082245-
BELL TX-
504 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BELL COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 504 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FLORENCE...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF SERENADA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TEMPLE...HARKER HEIGHTS...BELTON...NOLANVILLE...MORGAN'S POINT
RESORT...SALADO...LITTLE RIVER-ACADEMY...TROY...ROGERS AND HOLLAND.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 278 AND 311.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3087 9762 3092 9784 3126 9729 3105 9714
      3090 9723 3089 9726 3076 9732
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 232DEG 37KT 3085 9770

15-BAIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
508 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXZ144-145-157-159-082300-
MCLENNAN TX-CORYELL TX-HILL TX-BOSQUE TX-
508 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HILL...SOUTHEASTERN
BOSQUE...NORTHEASTERN CORYELL AND WESTERN MCLENNAN COUNTIES UNTIL 600
PM CDT...

AT 507 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MCGREGOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WACO...MCGREGOR...CLIFTON...WEST...VALLEY MILLS...CRAWFORD...
GHOLSON...OGLESBY...SOUTH MOUNTAIN...ROSS AND AQUILLA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 348 AND 356.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3134 9739 3143 9766 3188 9766 3186 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 203DEG 41KT 3146 9745

15-BAIN