Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

TIMING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST 6 HRS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER KSJT CURRENTLY...WHILE
SEVERAL MESOSCALE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICES WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS SE OK AND E TX OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD
SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING....BEFORE BETTER MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL WILL ADVERTISE VCSH AT LEAST INTO
MID AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO VCTS WITH CB/S
ON LATER FORECAST IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO HOLD AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

BY MID MORNING...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL ADVERTISE A RETURN VFR CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...SOUTH WINDS
10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MOISTURE RICH OVER THE AREA.
WILL BEGIN MVFR CIGS BY 06Z...THEN AS WIND SPEEDS LOWER OVER WET
SOIL...HAVE CIGS DROPPING INTO IFR WITH MVFR VSBYS DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS MEMORIAL DAY.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT LEFT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST.
BULK OF MONDAY/S CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HRS.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  68  84  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
WACO, TX              79  69  80  67  86 /  80  40  60  40  20
PARIS, TX             75  67  82  65  82 /  90  50  60  50  20
DENTON, TX            77  66  84  66  84 /  80  40  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  84  66  83 /  80  50  60  50  20
DALLAS, TX            79  68  85  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
TERRELL, TX           78  69  82  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         78  70  83  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  70  30  60  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  60  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

05/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. MORE IMPORTANTLY...POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. THE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WILL ALSO ACT TO ENHANCE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE WEST.

THOSE PLANNING TO ENGAGE IN OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES THROUGH TONIGHT
ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS
TO ADJUST PLANS AND SCHEDULES ACCORDINGLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS DAILY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...THOUGH A HIGHER THREAT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING AND CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING.

THOSE PLANNING TO ENGAGE IN OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES ARE ADVISED TO
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS TO ADJUST
PLANS AND SCHEDULES ACCORDINGLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY. REPORTS OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE ENCOURAGED AND APPRECIATED AS WELL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
446 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WAXAHACHIE              32.40N  96.85W
05/24/2015                   ELLIS              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE NUMBER OF ROADS REMAINED CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
521 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GRAND PRAIRIE           32.75N  96.98W
05/24/2015                   DALLAS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN AND STRUCTURE DAMAGE TO A CAR WASH NEAR POLO
            RD AND ROBINSON RD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
539 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VENUS                   32.43N  97.12W
05/24/2015                   JOHNSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE HIGH WATER RESCUES CONDUCTED AND ARE ONGOING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
545 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VENUS                   32.43N  97.12W
05/24/2015                   JOHNSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSURES INCLUDE FM916, FM157, CR505, CR1205 AND
            CR1019

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
548 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GRAND PRAIRIE           32.75N  96.98W
05/24/2015                   DALLAS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGH WATER ON I-20 BOTH DIRECTIONS NEAR CARRIER PKWY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
701 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLOOD            COVINGTON               32.18N  97.27W
05/24/2015                   HILL               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            200 BLOCK OF CR 1418 NEAR COVINGTON PARTIALLY WASHED OUT