Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
CONCERNS...PERIODS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A MCV /MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX/ SOUTHWEST OF KACT AT 05Z...
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THUS HAVE KEPT TAFS GENERALLY MVFR WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 10Z....AND VCTS THROUGH 14Z. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW IS DIFFICULT...SOME HAVE
PLACED VCSH IN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE CEILINGS FALL
BACK TO MVFR BY 04Z.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  68  84  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
WACO, TX              79  69  80  67  86 /  80  40  60  40  20
PARIS, TX             75  67  82  65  82 /  90  50  60  50  20
DENTON, TX            77  66  84  66  84 /  80  40  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  84  66  83 /  80  50  60  50  20
DALLAS, TX            79  68  85  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
TERRELL, TX           78  69  82  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         78  70  83  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  70  30  60  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  60  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. MORE IMPORTANTLY...POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. THE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WILL ALSO ACT TO ENHANCE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE WEST.

THOSE PLANNING TO ENGAGE IN OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES THROUGH TONIGHT
ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS
TO ADJUST PLANS AND SCHEDULES ACCORDINGLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS DAILY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...THOUGH A HIGHER THREAT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING AND CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING.

THOSE PLANNING TO ENGAGE IN OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES ARE ADVISED TO
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS TO ADJUST
PLANS AND SCHEDULES ACCORDINGLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY. REPORTS OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE ENCOURAGED AND APPRECIATED AS WELL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
428 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     TSTM WND DMG     OVILLA                  32.53N  96.88W
05/24/2015                   ELLIS              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DEBRIS AND POWER POLES IN THE ROAD ON FM 664 NEAR SOUTH
            WESTMORLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LEWISVILLE              33.07N  97.00W
05/24/2015                   DENTON             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SHUTTING DOWN FRONTAGE ROAD OF SOUTHBOUND I-35E SOUTH OF
            VALLEY RIDGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
436 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GUNTER                  33.45N  96.75W
05/24/2015                   GRAYSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER SH 289 FROM KERFOOT TO LITTLE ELM CREEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
440 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ARLINGTON               32.73N  97.12W
05/24/2015                   TARRANT            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ABRAMS ROAD AND A NEARBY SHOPPING CENTER IN ARLINGTON
            FLOODED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
444 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ARLINGTON               32.73N  97.12W
05/24/2015                   TARRANT            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SWIFT WATER RESCUE AT THE 1300 BLK OF E ABRAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
446 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WAXAHACHIE              32.40N  96.85W
05/24/2015                   ELLIS              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE NUMBER OF ROADS REMAINED CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY