Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Fort Worth, TX

662 
WGUS74 KFWD 170929
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
429 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

TXC093-143-171030-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-150517T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COMANCHE TX-ERATH TX-
429 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CDT FOR
COMANCHE AND ERATH COUNTIES...

AT 427 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY RAIN WAS 
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...UP TO TWO INCHES OF 
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH 530 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 9847 3248 9848 3251 9847 3251 9807
      3215 9791 3176 9871 3208 9892

$$

75

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1213 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE METROPLEX HAS RECENTLY
ACCELERATED...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH TAF
SITES NOW THROUGH 08Z. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
LINE IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE...AND WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE VCTS IN THE METROPLEX THROUGH 10Z. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DEVELOP 10-12Z BEFORE IMPROVING LATE MORNING.

FOR KACT...CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 08Z OR 09Z. STORMS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE MOVING SLOWER AND SHOULD NOT PACK QUITE
THE WINDS AS THE ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH.

HI-RES GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SUNDAY
EVENING AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. OUTFLOW FROM TONIGHT/S CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOCATION OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WILL DETERMINE WHERE ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL INDICATE VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 18/02Z...AND WILL BE ABLE
TO REFINE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IN LATER TAFS AS NEWER DATA
IS RECEIVED.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS
HAVE CONGEALED INTO A LINE AND WILL OCCASIONALLY INCLUDE BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH A CONTINUED WIND THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE TORNADO WATCH HAS
NOW BEEN REPLACED BY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...EXPANDED ONE ROW
OF COUNTIES EAST...AND EXTENDED THROUGH 4 AM. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR E/SE COUNTIES...IT/S BEEN
A QUIET WEATHER DAY...BUT THAT/S ABOUT TO CHANGE. AS EXPECTED...
THE UPPER LOW HAS MIGRATED NORTHEAST OVER ID/WY/CO THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT A LITTLE SLOWER TIMING THAN PROJECTED 24 HRS AGO. THE SURFACE
DRYLINE HAD MOVE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE TOWARD THE I-27 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO...WHERE A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. STORMS HOWEVER ARE A LONG WAYS AWAY AND
WE/RE BASICALLY AWAITING BOTH THE LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND
SURFACE DRYLINE TO MIGRATE FURTHER EAST. LATEST 18Z SPECIAL FWD
SOUNDING SHOWED DRY AND WARM ALOFT REMAINED FROM SUBSIDENCE
OVERNIGHT...BUT THINK THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN...LIFT AND
WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED DISCRETE STORMS MOVING
INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES 6-7 PM AND AFTER. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
EVENING MAINLY NW OF A COMANCHE TO GRANBURY TO DENTON TO SHERMAN
LINE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-40 KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR 20-25 KTS
FORECAST WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CURVATURE TO THE HODOGRAPH.

BY LATE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT...A MORE MULTI-CELLULAR OR
LINEAR STORM MODE IS EXPECTED AS A 35-45KT LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WAA
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW
WILL RACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LINEAR FORCING PARALLELING
THE LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL STILL REMAIN...BUT BE MORE LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE MORE PRESSING CONCERN WILL BE TRAINING OF
STORMS CONTAINING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5-2 INCHES AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH DAWN SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THOUGH PROGRESSION OF THE LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM HAPPENING TOO LONG
OVER ANY ONE LOCATION. AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...
THE LINE SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY ALREADY EXACERBATING
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND IN COVERAGE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH LOSS OF THE LLJ AND THE
LINEAR SYSTEM MOVING AWAY FROM THE BEST UPPER FORCING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BEGIN FOR CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY AND
END ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE REALLY A CONCERN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY COULD GIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE METROPLEX NORTHEAST TO PARIS AND SULPHUR
SPRINGS...THEN LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THIS TIME...YET ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LOW SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S COASTLINE. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED UP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A NEW ONE FILLING IN
BEHIND IT IN ALMOST A FUJIWARA TYPE OF FASHION.

THE CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT AND MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...OFF AND ON
RAIN CHANCES WILL AS WELL...THAT PART WE/RE CONFIDENT OF. WHERE
THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH AND WHERE CONFIDENCE WANES IS TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. WE EXPECT THE MID-LATE WEEK
FORECAST TO BECOME CLEARER AS WE PROCEED FORTH INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY LOOKING AT 240HR LONG RANGE FORECASTS...
IT DOESN/T APPEAR MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LONG WAVE PATTERN SHIFT
WILL OCCUR UNTIL ALMOST MEMORIAL DAY AND AFTER WITH A WET PATTERN
CONTINUING.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  84  70  83  69 /  80  50  50  40  30
WACO, TX              71  83  70  83  69 /  70  70  50  50  20
PARIS, TX             69  82  69  81  67 /  80  60  60  60  30
DENTON, TX            68  84  68  84  67 /  70  30  50  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          69  83  68  83  67 /  80  50  60  40  30
DALLAS, TX            69  85  70  84  70 /  80  50  60  40  30
TERRELL, TX           71  84  69  82  68 /  80  70  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  83  70  81  69 /  70  70  60  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            72  83  70  83  69 /  60  70  50  50  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  84  67  84  67 /  80  30  30  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>121-129>134-141.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ147-148-158-160>162-174-175.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ122-123-135-
142>146-156-157-159.

&&

30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
316 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING FROM
COMANCHE TO MINERAL WELLS TO GAINESVILLE THEN SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT TO MUCH OF THE REGION.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. DAMAGING WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. AREAS
FROM COMANCHE TO WEATHERFORD TO DECATUR TO GAINESVILLE AND
NORTHWEST OF THERE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

DUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW WEATHERFORD        32.82N  97.86W
05/16/2015                   PARKER             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LARGE TREES DOWN ACROSS OLD AUTHON ROAD JUST WEST OF HWY
            1885

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1246 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S SPRINGTOWN          32.91N  97.68W
05/17/2015                   PARKER             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            2-CAR GARAGE DESTROYED NEAR HWY 51 AND CARTER ROAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
114 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

TXZ093-104-170700-
GRAYSON TX-COLLIN TX-
114 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRAYSON AND NORTHERN COLLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 113 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PROSPER...OR NEAR MCKINNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3385 9686 3387 9681 3382 9676 3383 9671
      3392 9666 3389 9658 3384 9662 3382 9653
      3377 9650 3377 9642 3373 9638 3334 9639
      3335 9629 3327 9630 3308 9679 3317 9684
      3340 9684 3342 9694 3395 9694 3396 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 0613Z 242DEG 43KT 3321 9675

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
139 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW MILLSAP           32.77N  98.08W
05/15/2015                   PARKER             TX   PUBLIC

            PART OF THE ROOF OF A FRAME HOUSE REMOVED. TRAILER HOME
            PUSHED OFF PINNINGS ABT 2 FT. METAL POLES RIPPED OUTOF
            GROUND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
139 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW MILLSAP           32.77N  98.08W
05/16/2015                   PARKER             TX   PUBLIC

            PART OF THE ROOF OF A FRAME HOUSE REMOVED. TRAILER HOME
            PUSHED OFF PINNINGS ABT 2 FT. METAL POLES RIPPED OUTOF
            GROUND.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
144 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

TXZ094-105-170730-
HUNT TX-FANNIN TX-
144 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HUNT AND FANNIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 143 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BELLS TO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WHITEWRIGHT TO NEAR FARMERSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BONHAM...COMMERCE...LEONARD...HONEY GROVE...WHITEWRIGHT...WOLFE
CITY...SAVOY...CELESTE...ECTOR...DODD CITY...BAILEY...RAVENNA...
BONHAM STATE PARK...TRENTON...LADONIA...PECAN GAP...WINDOM AND
NEYLANDVILLE.

LAT...LON 3388 9591 3384 9585 3322 9586 3315 9630
      3335 9629 3334 9639 3371 9638 3370 9632
      3375 9630 3376 9626 3375 9619 3380 9616
      3386 9599 3386 9595 3388 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 252DEG 38KT 3366 9638 3344 9645 3322 9640

92