Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Fort Worth, TX

274 
WGUS74 KFWD 170619
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
119 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

TXC337-170800-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0064.000000T0000Z-150517T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTAGUE TX-
119 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY...

AT 116 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT A FEW RURAL 
ROADS WERE STILL EXPERIENCING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN 
MONTAGUE COUNTY.  

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING 
INCLUDE... 
BOWIE...ST. JO...FORESTBURG AND SUNSET. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3370 9748 3344 9749 3344 9797 3370 9786

$$

15-BAIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS
HAVE CONGEALED INTO A LINE AND WILL OCCASIONALLY INCLUDE BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH A CONTINUED WIND THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE TORNADO WATCH HAS
NOW BEEN REPLACED BY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...EXPANDED ONE ROW
OF COUNTIES EAST...AND EXTENDED THROUGH 4 AM. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
SHOULD FORM INTO A LINE LATER THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL BE AROUND AND JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. WILL BRING VCTS IN AT 4-5Z WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR TSRA ON STATION AT 5-6Z FOR 2-3 HOURS. WILL END VCTS AT
10Z...BUT IF STORMS HAVE TROUBLE MOVING SOUTHWARD DUE TO A WEAK
COLD POOL...THIS MAY CONTINUE LONGER. FOR WACO THE TIMING WILL BE
A FEW HOURS LATER AND WILL SHOW VCTS AT 8Z WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FROM 9-12Z.

SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...BUT OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING BUT
THIS MAY NOT OCCUR DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DISRUPTION OCCURS WITH
OVERNIGHT STORMS.

SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BUT THIS IS CONTINGENT ON LIMITED CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TONIGHT.
EITHER WAY CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION THREAT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10-15 KT.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 179 HAS BEEN ISSUED AND INCLUDES COUNTIES GENERALLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ACTIVITY DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ALONG A
DRYLINE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERED THE PLAINS FROM THE WEST.
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES IN ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME STORMS BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BECOMING MORE OF A THREAT EAST OF
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR E/SE COUNTIES...IT/S BEEN
A QUIET WEATHER DAY...BUT THAT/S ABOUT TO CHANGE. AS EXPECTED...
THE UPPER LOW HAS MIGRATED NORTHEAST OVER ID/WY/CO THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT A LITTLE SLOWER TIMING THAN PROJECTED 24 HRS AGO. THE SURFACE
DRYLINE HAD MOVE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE TOWARD THE I-27 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO...WHERE A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. STORMS HOWEVER ARE A LONG WAYS AWAY AND
WE/RE BASICALLY AWAITING BOTH THE LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND
SURFACE DRYLINE TO MIGRATE FURTHER EAST. LATEST 18Z SPECIAL FWD
SOUNDING SHOWED DRY AND WARM ALOFT REMAINED FROM SUBSIDENCE
OVERNIGHT...BUT THINK THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN...LIFT AND
WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED DISCRETE STORMS MOVING
INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES 6-7 PM AND AFTER. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
EVENING MAINLY NW OF A COMANCHE TO GRANBURY TO DENTON TO SHERMAN
LINE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-40 KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR 20-25 KTS
FORECAST WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CURVATURE TO THE HODOGRAPH.

BY LATE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT...A MORE MULTI-CELLULAR OR
LINEAR STORM MODE IS EXPECTED AS A 35-45KT LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WAA
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW
WILL RACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LINEAR FORCING PARALLELING
THE LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL STILL REMAIN...BUT BE MORE LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE MORE PRESSING CONCERN WILL BE TRAINING OF
STORMS CONTAINING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5-2 INCHES AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH DAWN SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THOUGH PROGRESSION OF THE LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM HAPPENING TOO LONG
OVER ANY ONE LOCATION. AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...
THE LINE SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY ALREADY EXACERBATING
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND IN COVERAGE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH LOSS OF THE LLJ AND THE
LINEAR SYSTEM MOVING AWAY FROM THE BEST UPPER FORCING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BEGIN FOR CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY AND
END ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE REALLY A CONCERN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY COULD GIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE METROPLEX NORTHEAST TO PARIS AND SULPHUR
SPRINGS...THEN LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THIS TIME...YET ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LOW SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S COASTLINE. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED UP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A NEW ONE FILLING IN
BEHIND IT IN ALMOST A FUJIWARA TYPE OF FASHION.

THE CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT AND MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...OFF AND ON
RAIN CHANCES WILL AS WELL...THAT PART WE/RE CONFIDENT OF. WHERE
THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH AND WHERE CONFIDENCE WANES IS TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. WE EXPECT THE MID-LATE WEEK
FORECAST TO BECOME CLEARER AS WE PROCEED FORTH INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY LOOKING AT 240HR LONG RANGE FORECASTS...
IT DOESN/T APPEAR MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LONG WAVE PATTERN SHIFT
WILL OCCUR UNTIL ALMOST MEMORIAL DAY AND AFTER WITH A WET PATTERN
CONTINUING.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  84  70  83  69 /  80  50  50  40  30
WACO, TX              71  83  70  83  69 /  70  70  50  50  20
PARIS, TX             69  82  69  81  67 /  80  60  60  60  30
DENTON, TX            68  84  68  84  67 /  70  30  50  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          69  83  68  83  67 /  80  50  60  40  30
DALLAS, TX            69  85  70  84  70 /  80  50  60  40  30
TERRELL, TX           71  84  69  82  68 /  80  70  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  83  70  81  69 /  70  70  60  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            72  83  70  83  69 /  60  70  50  50  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  84  67  84  67 /  80  30  30  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>121-129>134-141.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ147-148-158-160>162-174-175.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ122-123-135-
142>146-156-157-159.

&&

30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
316 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING FROM
COMANCHE TO MINERAL WELLS TO GAINESVILLE THEN SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT TO MUCH OF THE REGION.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. DAMAGING WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. AREAS
FROM COMANCHE TO WEATHERFORD TO DECATUR TO GAINESVILLE AND
NORTHWEST OF THERE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

TXZ091-102-170415-
MONTAGUE TX-WISE TX-
1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WISE AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTAGUE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1050 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWPORT...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF BOWIE...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALVORD...CHICO AND SUNSET.

LAT...LON 3345 9754 3327 9762 3327 9792 3343 9792
      3344 9798 3346 9798 3354 9768
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 260DEG 16KT 3337 9793

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1057 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

TXZ101-170445-
JACK TX-
1057 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACK COUNTY UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1057 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEWPORT TO NEAR JACKSBORO TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAFORD...AND
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSBORO...BRYSON AND NEWPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3346 9798 3344 9798 3343 9793 3343 9792
      3301 9792 3301 9843 3318 9837 3347 9814
      3347 9799
TIME...MOT...LOC 0357Z 272DEG 12KT 3341 9792 3325 9810 3301 9835

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1116 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

TXZ116-129>131-170500-
PALO PINTO TX-HOOD TX-EASTLAND TX-ERATH TX-
1116 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HOOD...NORTHEASTERN
EASTLAND...NORTHWESTERN ERATH AND PALO PINTO COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT...

AT 1115 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF GRAFORD TO
NEAR GORDON TO 7 MILES NORTH OF GORMAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINERAL WELLS...GRAFORD...GORDON...LIPAN...HUCKABAY...MORGAN MILL...
STRAWN AND MINGUS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 357 AND 389.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3224 9879 3252 9856 3295 9855 3295 9843
      3301 9843 3300 9806 3256 9807 3256 9799
      3237 9811
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 239DEG 39KT 3297 9840 3256 9845 3232 9869

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE MINERAL WELLS      32.78N  98.08W
05/16/2015                   PALO PINTO         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE ON FM1195 OFF 281

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE MINERAL WELLS      32.78N  98.08W
05/16/2015                   PALO PINTO         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE ON FM1195 OFF HWY 281

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1155 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MINERAL WELLS           32.80N  98.10W
05/16/2015                   PALO PINTO         TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWERLINES DOWN AROUND MINERAL WELLS