Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 PM MST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THEN REDEVELOP THURSDAY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING...HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOOK FOR A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARIZONA STARTING FRIDAY AND PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS COCONINO AND
NORTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LINE OF STORMS
STRETCHING FROM CHINO VALLEY TO HOTEVILLA AND TUBA CITY. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED TO OUR EAST BUT IS FORECAST TO
REFORM ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ WITH TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE
VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW
DECENT MOISTURE TO STICK AROUND THE AREA. THUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY......SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND BRINGS A DEGREE OR TWO OF MID LEVEL WARMING. PROGS
CONTINUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF
A PAYSON TO WINDOW ROCK LINE. KEPT A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE WHITE MTNS AND VICINITY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. STORM CHANCES ARE NIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR ALL EXCEPT FOR APACHE COUNTY.

MODELS HINTING AT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE STATE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE INCREASE ESPECIALLY NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES. PRECIP CHANCES ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...MOST NUMEROUS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM KPRC...KINW...KRQE. STORMS WILL DECREASE AND
BECOME ISOLATED AFTER 07Z. LCL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
452 AM MST WED AUG 26 2015

AZZ004>018-037>040-270515-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
452 AM MST WED AUG 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING...HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY WITH FURTHER DRYING AND LOWERING STORM CHANCES FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THURSDAY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING 1-888-745-1637.