Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

310 
WGUS75 KFGZ 271928
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1228 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015

AZC025-272115-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150827T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI-
1228 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 1223 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING 
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA...BOTH EAST OF WALKER AND SOUTHWEST 
OF MAYER. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL 
A FEW MILES WEST OF MAYER. HOWEVER...ONLY ABOUT ONE HALF INCH OF 
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR.
 
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE ONGOING. IN PARTICULAR...MOTORISTS ON STATE 
HIGHWAY 69 SHOULD WATCH FOR WATER RUNNING OVER THE ROADWAY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
WALKER...MAYER AND POLAND JUNCTION. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...LITTLE WOLF
CREEK...CEDAR CREEK...HACKBERRY CREEK...PINE CREEK...WOLF CREEK...
LYNX CREEK...CHAPARRAL GULCH...GRAPEVINE CREEK...AGUA FRIA RIVER AND
BIG BUG CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 11223 3437 11219 3435 11235 3451 11240

$$

732 
WGUS75 KFGZ 272105
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
205 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015

AZC025-272113-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150827T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI-
205 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

NO RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN THE WARNING AREA. FLOOD WATERS ARE 
LIKELY IN THE PROCESS OF RECEDING...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A 
THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD 
CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3451 11223 3437 11219 3435 11235 3451 11240

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 AM MST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME DRYING WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BEFORE GRADUALLY COOLING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY TODAY
ACROSS NRN AZ. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWING GOOD
INSTABILITY. STORM STEERING WINDS ARE WESTERLY NOW BUT FORECAST TO
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
MAY ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE FROM THE RIM INTO NRN GILA AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 435 AM...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RE-
CIRCULATE UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW WILL
BECOME RATHER WEAK AND UNORGANIZED DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL
CHANGE THE CHARACTER OF STORM ACTIVITY...FROM BEING SOMEWHAT
DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...TO SLOW MOVING TERRAIN-BASED STORMS. BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EAST OF OUR STATE. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY DRY OUT THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES WILL HAVE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS
DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND EJECTING S/WVS THAT WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BEFORE GRADUALLY COOLING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH 02Z FRI. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GENERALLY BE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
IFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFT 02Z
FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DL /  PETERSON
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
621 AM MST THU AUG 27 2015

AZZ004>018-037>040-271515-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
621 AM MST THU AUG 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. STORM MOTION
WILL BE LESS TODAY DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT SLIGHTLY
DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR LARGER HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TODAY WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A DRYING
TREND WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING 1-888-745-1637.