Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 8, 2015, 2:45 PM MST for Coconino County, Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 8, 2015, 2:45 PM MST (21:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 8, 2015, 3:15 PM MST
- In force
- 30 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
Counties Coconino County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KDMA), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 384 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 527 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -67 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1116 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 90 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 8, 9:23 AM MST, 5 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 8, 9:23 AM MST, 5 hours 22 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 923 AM MST SAT AUG 8 2015 .SYNOPSIS...FAIR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN AGAIN NEXT WEEK...RAMPING UP STORM ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. && .DISCUSSION...THE GREAT BASIN LOW HAS MOVED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH A DRYING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARIZONA. DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIM FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...WE STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA...AND ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN COCONINO/YAVAPAI COUNTIES. A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA WHERE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED. && .PREV DISCUSSION /426 AM MST/...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM ARIZONA TODAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW MOVES DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EASTWARD KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA A FEW STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS DRIER AIR STABILIZES THE AIR MASS LIMITING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY...A RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH WILL HELP TO STABILIZE THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SEASONABLY STRONG PACIFIC LOW WILL FORM JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF ARIZONA WILL BUILD NORTH. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS WILL BRING A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO ARIZONA. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND A RETURN TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MOSTLY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP FROM KFLG EASTWARD AFT 18Z-19Z SAT. MOST CEILINGS WILL BE 4-6KFT AGL IN SHOWERS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE BETWEEN 02-04Z WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVER APACHE COUNTY OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...MCS/MCS AVIATION...RR FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 8, 1:27 PM MST, 1 hour 18 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 127 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015 AZZ004>007-009>016-038>040-090445- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 127 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WITH SUCCESSIVE STORMS WILL ELEVATE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT THREATS. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 1-888-745-1637.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 8, 11:48 AM MST, 2 hours 57 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1148 AM MST SAT AUG 8 2015 AZZ012-040-081915- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 1148 AM MST SAT AUG 8 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM MST... AT 1147 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT...OR 29 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3535 11129 3548 11138 3569 11107 3548 11092 TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 242DEG 4KT 3548 11123 MCS
Special weather statement, Aug 8, 12:20 PM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes before
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</html>Special weather statement, Aug 8, 12:32 PM MST, 2 hours 13 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1232 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015 AZZ012-013-082000- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- 1232 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM MST... AT 1228 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WINSLOW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WINSLOW AND HOMOLOVI STATE PARK CAMPGROUND. I-40 BETWEEN MP253 AND MP267 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3489 11071 3499 11080 3516 11056 3500 11040 TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 235DEG 17KT 3500 11061 MOTTICE
Special weather statement, Aug 8, 12:54 PM MST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1254 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015 AZZ012-015-082045- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM- 1254 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM MST... AT 1253 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT...OR 28 MILES NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT AND WUPATKI VISITORS CENTER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3549 11158 3565 11163 3580 11129 3553 11120 TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 251DEG 10KT 3560 11151 MCS
Special weather statement, Aug 8, 2:22 PM MST, 23 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 222 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015 AZZ009-012-082145- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- 222 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM MST... AT 221 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF MOENAVE...OR 14 MILES WEST OF TUBA CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... THE GAP. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && LAT...LON 3606 11145 3612 11160 3638 11146 3629 11126 TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 208DEG 24KT 3617 11149 MCS
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 6:07 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 23 min |
| Aug 7, 6:25 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 35 min |
| Aug 7, 10:40 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Coconino | 110 min |
| Aug 8, 11:48 AM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 27 min | |
| Aug 8, 12:20 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Coconino | 25 min |
| Aug 8, 12:32 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Coconino, Navajo | 118 min |
| Aug 8, 12:32 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Navajo | 28 min |
| Aug 8, 12:54 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Coconino | 51 min |
| Aug 8, 1:04 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 26 min |
| Aug 8, 1:17 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 28 min |
| Aug 8, 2:22 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Coconino | 23 min |
| Aug 8, 3:29 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Navajo | 46 min |
| Aug 8, 4:17 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 43 min | |
| Aug 8, 4:49 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 41 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2015Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.