Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
228 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THAT INCLUDES MUCH OF COCONINO
COUNTY. STORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK RAMPING UP STORM
ACTIVITY FROM MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE TAHOE
THIS AFTERNOON IS PROVIDING SOME DYNAMIC LIFT TO HELP FUEL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FURTHER
EAST...DAYTIME INSTABILITY FROM AMPLE MONSOON MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM
WHITERIVER ALL WAY NORTH TOWARD KAYENTA. THE TROUGH IS PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND WE HAVE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 0.75 INCH HAIL NEAR THE
SOUTH RIM OF GRAND CANYON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE DYNAMIC LIFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE
MAXIMIZED AND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS GREATEST. SEVERE
STORM THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THAT BEING
SAID...ANY OF TODAY'S STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING.
EXPECT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS THE THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH.

A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH PUSHES THE MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY GENERALLY FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. EVEN FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH ANY STORMS BEING CONFINED TO THE WHITE AND CHUSKA
MOUNTAIN REGIONS.

WE WILL TRANSITION BACK INTO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN NEXT
WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CONDS PSSBL IN
STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH ACROSS NORTHERN
COCONINO/NAVAJO COUNTIES (INCLUDING KGCN AND KPGA TERMINALS).
STORMS DECREASING AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BTWN 02-05Z SATURDAY.
LESS STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT
MST TONIGHT FOR AZZ004>007-009- 012-015-038.

&&

PUBLIC...MCS/MCS
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
442 AM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

AZZ004>018-037>040-080645-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
442 AM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WITH SUCCESSIVE STORMS WILL
ELEVATE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES.

SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT THREATS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING 1-888-745-1637.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
138 PM MST FRI AUG 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1259 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE MILEPOST 325 ON HW 34.82N 109.86W
08/07/2015  M49 MPH          NAVAJO             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            49 MPH WIND GUST AT PETRIFIED FOREST NP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500107

CLM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
217 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

AZZ018-072145-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
217 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL GILA COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MST...

AT 217 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTH OF HILLTOP...OR 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF GLOBE...MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT APACHE RESERVATION.

LAT...LON 3383 11051 3385 11055 3397 11060 3398 11026
      3383 11033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 176DEG 25KT 3380 11041

MOTTICE

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