Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
942 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM FLAGSTAFF AND
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES REVEAL SIMILAR
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE VALUES AS YESTERDAY. OBSERVED AND MODEL
ESTIMATES INDICATE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
WILL DEVELOP TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH - ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE
OVERESTIMATED ACROSS SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY DUE TO OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE GREATEST DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES EXIST FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH, WITH A
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER TOPPED BY AN EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, STEERING FLOW IS
GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO
10 KNOTS. NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT FROM
THE NORTHEAST.

THE LARGEST CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. MOST OF YAVAPAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST
ARIZONA EXPERIENCED THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOWS OVERNIGHT. THIS
OFTEN MEANS AT LEAST A DELAYED START TO CONVECTION THERE. HI-RES
MODEL RUNS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA ACTUALLY FORECAST THE
MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM TODAY, WITH STRONG OUTFLOWS INITIATING CONVECTION IN
THE LATE EVENING IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES,
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE THERE IS SOMEWHAT UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /413 AM MST/...LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN SHIFT TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE TODAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY
LESS, ENHANCED WIND SHEAR CONTINUES WITH S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY ALOFT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY, MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE
MTNS SOUTHWARD INTO GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. HAIL TO 1" IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WIND SHEAR DECREASES AS THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE STATE. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY, SO EXPECT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONGER
E/NE STEERING FLOWS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL DECREASE, SO
STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO ROLL OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE
LOWER VALLEYS AND POPS IN THESE AREAS ARE LOWER. BY SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MID LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO RE-
POSITION SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA RESULTING IN A FEW DAYS OF A
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER AND
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. THIS STEERING FLOW IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF THE RIM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE
WEST. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH WINDS OF 45-50 KTS
AND HAIL TO 1" DIAMETER. THE AREA MOST LIKELY FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS SOUTH INTO GILA AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFT 06Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...RR/JJ
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
523 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

AZZ004>018-037>040-020330-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
523 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE WEST INTO THE
VALLEYS. A FEW STORMS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH ACROSS YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
149 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

AZZ010-011-040-012130-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
149 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MST...

AT 146 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER SAWMILL...OR 28 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHINLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...KINLICHEE CHAPTER HOUSE...FORT
DEFIANCE...GANADO...AND SAWMILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 10959 3602 10922 3595 10905 3551 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 018DEG 7KT 3587 10920

RR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
212 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

AZZ013-014-017-012200-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-WHITE MOUNTAINS-LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
212 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN NAVAJO AND SOUTHWESTERN
APACHE COUNTIES...

AT 210 PM MST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR VERNON...OR 20 MILES
EAST OF SHOW LOW...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VERNON...LAKE OF THE WOODS--PINETOP-LAKESIDE...BROWN CREEK
CAMPGROUND...PINETOP COUNTRY CLUB...MCNARY AND LOS BURROS CAMPGROUND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 STATE ROUTE 260 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 353 AND 356...AND BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 363 AND 365.
 HIGHWAY 60 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 349 AND 365.
 STATE ROUTE 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 353 AND 357.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3424 10954 3404 10961 3410 10996 3436 10988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 107DEG 9KT 3416 10970

MCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
229 PM MST WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     HAIL             PARKS                   35.26N 111.95W
07/01/2015  M1.75 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. STONES WERE FAIRLY FLAT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500069

TRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
241 PM MST WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             FORT VALLEY             35.27N 111.73W
07/01/2015  M1.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500070

TRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
301 PM MST WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             BELLEMONT               35.23N 111.82W
07/01/2015  M1.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   NWS OFFICE

            A LOT OF PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW PIECES TO
            QUARTER SIZE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500071

CLM