Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1053 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM FLAGSTAFF AND
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES REVEAL SIMILAR
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE VALUES AS YESTERDAY. OBSERVED AND MODEL
ESTIMATES INDICATE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL
DEVELOP TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY ACROSS YAVAPAI
COUNTY. IN ADDITION, THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES EXIST
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWEST, WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER TOPPED BY AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NORTHEAST OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM, FLOW IS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. STEERING FLOW IS
GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

HI-RES MODEL RUNS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA FORECAST A
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AS YESTERDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING FIRST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NORTHWESTWARD TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AROUND NOON. THEN,
THESE STORMS QUICKLY MOVE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IMPACTING NORTHERN
GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PROFILES THERE, YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE
BEST SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THERE INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 60 MPH. OF COURSE, HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT IN FORMING A
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RIM IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS INITIATED BY
EARLIER CONVECTION IN NEW MEXICO AND THE CHUSKAS. THIS WOULD BE
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /300 AM MST/...OVER THE COMING WEEK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ABOUT THE WESTERN STATES WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER UTAH. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA THEN MOVE TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. STORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. A FEW STORMS THAT MOVE
INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. PLAN YOUR DAY ACCORDINGLY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD WITH ACTIVITY MORE
ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT, ESPECIALLY OVER YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES.  FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING A SHIFT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EASTWARD TO OVER NEW
MEXICO AND COLORADO. THE SHIFT IS MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RESULTING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TURN SOUTHERLY UNDER THIS PATTERN. AS A RESULT, THE
AREA OF MOST STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT, EXTENDING FROM
THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. WE'LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHRA
/ TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING FIRST ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
THEN MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TOWARDS THE
WEST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER CELLS. STORM COVERAGE
BECOMING ISOLD AFT 06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...RR/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
323 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

AZZ004>018-037>040-010230-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
323 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE VALLEYS.
STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. A
FEW STORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES COULD BECOME
SEVERE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. AS USUAL, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
924 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     LIGHTNING        6 NW PROMONTORY RAWS    34.43N 111.09W
06/27/2015                   COCONINO           AZ   FOREST SERVICE

            *** 1 FATAL, 7 INJ *** LIGHTNING KILLED ONE FEMALE
            HIKER AND INJURED 7 OTHERS. THE GROUP WAS TAKING SHELTER
            FROM A THUNDERSTORM UNDER PONDEROSA PINE TREES NEAR
            KNOLL LAKE. THIS IS THE FOURTEENTH LIGHTNING-RELATED
            FATALITY IN THE USA SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500066

TM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1038 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 SE CONGRESS          34.06N 112.73W
06/29/2015                   YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF OF HOUSE BLOWN OFF... BARN ROOF SEPARATED FROM
            STRUCTURE... ONE TREE DOWN...ONE LARGE SAGUARO CACTUS
            DOWN... SEVEN TRUCK LOADS OF DOWNED TREE BRANCHES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500067

DGV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1211 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 SE CONGRESS          34.06N 112.73W
06/29/2015                   YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF OF HOUSE BLOWN OFF... BARN ROOF SEPARATED FROM
            STRUCTURE... ONE TREE DOWN...ONE LARGE SAGUARO CACTUS
            DOWN... SEVEN TRUCK LOADS OF DOWNED TREE BRANCHES.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500067

DGV