Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 29, 2015, 5:34 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 29, 2015, 5:34 PM MST (00:34 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 29, 2015, 6:00 PM MST
- In force
- 26 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
County Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 58 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -117 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2618 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -33 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 76 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 29, 3:25 PM MST, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 29, 3:25 PM MST, 2 hours 9 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 325 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE PROBABLE WITH THESE STORMS. && .DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND MOVING WEST INTO THE VALLEYS...WITH REPORTS OF GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...DRIVEN BY THE STRONGEST COMPLEXES CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EXHIBIT ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK THROUGH THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE SUPRESSED NORTH OF THE RIM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK ...BRINGING IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40+ KTS AND MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. SOME STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LESS TENDENCY TOWARD STRONG WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 18Z ON TUESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...BAK AVIATION...AT/BAK FIRE WEATHER...AT/BAK FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 29, 9:10 AM MST, 8 hours 24 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 910 AM MST MON JUN 29 2015 AZZ004>018-037>040-300700- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 910 AM MST MON JUN 29 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO TODAY TO BE RATHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS/MOGOLLON RIM/COCONINO PLATEAU THEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST INTO THE VALLEYS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS FARTHER NORTH...BUT STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS/BLACK MESA/KAIBAB PLATEAU AND MOVE WEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY GRADUAL SHIFTS IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW...DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 29, 12:08 PM MST, 5 hours 26 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1208 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015 AZZ007-015-291930- COCONINO PLATEAU-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM- 1208 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 1230 PM MST... AT 1207 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF WILLIAMS...OR 32 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL CROSS STATE HIGHWAY 64 BETWEEN WILLIAMS AND VALLE. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTY. LAT...LON 3551 11202 3539 11201 3534 11233 3554 11235 TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 085DEG 11KT 3544 11210 AT
Special weather statement, Jun 29, 12:57 PM MST, 4 hours 37 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1257 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015 AZZ007-015-292030- COCONINO PLATEAU-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM- 1257 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM MST... AT 1256 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WILLIAMS...OR 33 MILES WEST OF FLAGSTAFF...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WILLIAMS AND KAIBAB LAKE CAMPGROUND. LAT...LON 3540 11212 3523 11211 3521 11239 3541 11240 TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 082DEG 10KT 3531 11220 AT
Special weather statement, Jun 29, 1:10 PM MST, 4 hours 24 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 110 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015 AZZ007-015-292045- COCONINO PLATEAU-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM- 110 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM MST... AT 109 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WILLIAMS...OR 37 MILES WEST OF FLAGSTAFF...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WILLIAMS AND KAIBAB LAKE CAMPGROUND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3539 11218 3521 11216 3517 11242 3545 11246 TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 085DEG 16KT 3530 11227 AT
Special weather statement, Jun 29, 2:14 PM MST, 3 hours 20 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 214 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015 AZZ015-292145- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM- 214 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 211 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FLAGSTAFF...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. HALF INCH TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STATEMENT MAINLY CONCERNS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF FLAGSTAFF TOWARD KACHINA VILLAGE AND MOUNTAINAIRE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FLAGSTAFF...KACHINA VILLAGE...MOUNTAINAIRE...CANYON VISTA CAMPGROUND AND LOWER LAKE MARY. LAT...LON 3520 11155 3506 11155 3508 11185 3528 11182 TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 102DEG 13KT 3514 11160 AT
Local storm report, Jun 29, 4:55 PM MST, 39 minutes before
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</html>Local storm report, Jun 29, 4:58 PM MST, 36 minutes before
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<div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
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</html>The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 5:20 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 25 min |
| Jun 29, 6:59 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 31 min |
| Jun 29, 7:30 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 30 min |
| Jun 30, 12:33 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Apache | 27 min |
| Jun 30, 1:02 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Apache | 88 min |
| Jun 30, 1:03 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Apache | 27 min |
| Jun 30, 1:57 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 48 min | |
| Jun 30, 3:14 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | 31 min |
| Jun 30, 3:36 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Gila, Navajo | 24 min |
| Jun 30, 3:40 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 35 min |
| Jun 30, 4:02 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | 28 min |
| Jun 30, 4:06 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 24 min |
| Jun 30, 4:29 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 32 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2015Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.