Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE THE START OF A SLOW DRYING TREND WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION... ONE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER ARIZONA
FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE LOW. THE FIRST WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...AND BROUGHT A FEW HAIL REPORTS AT .75 INCH IN DIAMETER
AROUND FLAGSTAFF. WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS START AT .20" AND
APPROACHING AN INCH IN THE VERDE VALLEY. THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING
AND THEN EAST OF A WINDOW ROCK THROUGH PHOENIX LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

MADE A FEW SHORT TERM FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES TODAY FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AZ PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM VALLE TO WINDOW
ROCK THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED AS
WELL WITH WIDESPREAD .15 TO .35 INCH EXPECTED THROUGH 5 PM TODAY.
HEAVIER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA. STORM MOTION TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW SITS OVER ARIZONA AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WEDNESDAY IS LOW AS WIND SHEAR IS WEAK.

THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ...THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET INTO A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW.

FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH TO MOVE QUICKLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BRING DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 01Z ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...ACTIVITY DECREASING TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
834 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015

AZZ004>018-037>040-210030-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
834 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT COVERS MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS TO AREAS EAST OF A
LINE FROM WINDOW ROCK THROUGH PAYSON FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF OFFICE AT
1-888-745-1637.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
857 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015

AZZ009-010-039-201630-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-BLACK
MESA AREA-
857 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS AFFECTING NORTH CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY...

AT 857 AM MST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 11 MILES NORTH OF FOREST
LAKE CHAPTER HOUSE...OR 45 MILES NORTH OF KEAMS CANYON...MOVING NORTH
AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN NORTHEAST
PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD...WEST CENTRAL CHINLE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL BLACK MESA AREA COUNTIES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3637 11029 3641 11046 3665 11040 3659 11014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 199DEG 17KT 3646 11035

MOTTICE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
902 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MUNDS PARK              34.94N 111.64W
10/20/2015  M1.14 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500159

DGV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW CROWN KING         34.22N 112.35W
10/20/2015  M1.14 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   MESONET

            TOWER MOUNTAIN

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500160

DGV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SE CORDES JUNCTION    34.27N 112.05W
10/20/2015  M1.18 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   MESONET

            AGUA FRIA RIVER AT HORSESHOE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500161

DGV