Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

October 20, 2015Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 20, 2015, 5:09 AM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 20, 2015, 5:09 AM MST (12:09 UTC)
Expired: Oct 20, 2015, 5:50 AM MST
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 329 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 761 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 114 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 212 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 20, 3:46 AM MST, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 20, 3:46 AM MST, 1 hour 23 minutes before

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Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 20, 5:09 AM MST, 0 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 20, 12:10 AM MST, 4 hours 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1210 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     HAIL             11 SW BAGDAD            34.46N 113.31W
10/19/2015  E0.75 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            0.50 TO 0.75 HAIL ALONG HIGHWAY 93.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500151

MCS

Special weather statement, Oct 20, 1:21 AM MST, 3 hours 48 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
121 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015

AZZ008-018-037-200845-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY  MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN
GILA COUNTY-
121 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL GILA AND
SOUTHEASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

AT 120 AM MST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HORSESHOE RESERVOIR TO NEAR JAKES CORNER...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JAKES CORNER...RYE...ROUND VALLEY...GISELA...OXBOW ESTATES...
HORSESHOE RESERVOIR AND DEER CREEK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 STATE ROUTE 188 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 267 AND 276.
 STATE ROUTE 87 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 230 AND 251.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3389 11126 3390 11126 3397 11141 3401 11143
      3400 11150 3400 11160 3406 11180 3437 11181
      3416 11112 3388 11122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0820Z 185DEG 27KT 3407 11172 3394 11130

KD

Special weather statement, Oct 20, 2:09 AM MST, 3 hours before

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Special weather statement, Oct 20, 3:58 AM MST, 1 hour 11 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 19, 6:27 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	12 hr
Oct 19, 6:38 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	23 min
Oct 19, 9:36 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	24 min
Oct 19, 9:52 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	23 min
Oct 19, 10:03 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	42 min
Oct 19, 10:11 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	49 min
Oct 19, 10:26 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	49 min
Oct 19, 10:56 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	34 min
Oct 20, 1:21 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		24 min
Oct 20, 1:56 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Gila	24 min
Oct 20, 2:09 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		36 min
Oct 20, 3:08 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Apache, Navajo	37 min
Oct 20, 3:58 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		32 min
Oct 20, 4:25 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Navajo	20 min
Oct 20, 5:20 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		25 min
Oct 20, 5:27 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	33 min
Oct 20, 6:24 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	6 hr
Oct 20, 7:35 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		25 min
Oct 20, 8:57 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		33 min
Oct 20, 9:13 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Navajo	21 min
Oct 20, 9:37 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Navajo	23 min
Oct 20, 9:56 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Oct 20, 9:59 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Navajo	15 min
Oct 20, 10:22 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Oct 20, 10:24 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Navajo	36 min
Oct 20, 10:29 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Navajo	31 min
Oct 20, 10:41 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Navajo	34 min
Oct 20, 10:46 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Gila	29 min
Oct 20, 11:03 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Apache	27 min
Oct 20, 11:06 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Navajo	24 min
Oct 20, 11:28 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Gila, Navajo	32 min
Oct 20, 11:34 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Navajo	3 hr
Oct 20, 11:40 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		50 min
Oct 20, 11:48 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		42 min
Oct 20, 12:09 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Apache	36 min
Oct 20, 12:53 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		37 min
Oct 20, 1:21 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Apache, Navajo	3 hr
Oct 20, 1:39 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Apache	21 min
Oct 20, 1:46 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		29 min
Oct 20, 1:57 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		33 min
Oct 20, 3:07 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		23 min
Oct 20, 4:06 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		24 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.