Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

255 
WGUS75 KFGZ 012134
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
234 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

AZC005-012330-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-150901T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO-
234 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MST FOR
NORTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...

AT 229 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT VERY LIGHT RAIN WAS 
FALLING JUST EAST OF HOUSE ROCK ALONG US HIGHWAY 89A. MODERATE RAIN 
HAD JUST BEGUN TO FALL NEAR MILE MARKER 550 ON US 89A. RAINFALL FROM 
1.5 TO 2 INCHES WAS ESTIMATED TO HAVE ACCUMULATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF 
HOUSE ROCK.

FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ONGOING ALONG HOUSE ROCK WASH...AND MAY BE 
AFFECTING TRAVEL ALONG PORTIONS OF US HIGHWAY 89A NEAR HOUSE ROCK.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HOUSE ROCK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...COLORADO RIVER...
HOUSE ROCK WASH...SOUTH FORK SOAP CREEK AND EMMETT WASH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

STAY AWAY OR BE SWEPT AWAY. RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS CAN BECOME
UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 11173 3665 11173 3662 11184 3665 11214
      3675 11212 3676 11198 3667 11186

$$

262 
WGUS75 KFGZ 012337
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
437 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

AZC005-012340-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-150901T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO-
437 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE AREA SOUTHWEST OF HOUSE ROCK. FLOW 
COULD STILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DOWN THE HOUSE 
ROCK WASH TOWARD THE COLORADO RIVER. HIKERS IN THIS AREA SHOULD USE 
CAUTION THIS EVENING. 

LAT...LON 3669 11173 3665 11173 3662 11184 3665 11214
      3675 11212 3676 11198 3667 11186

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
948 AM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

&&

.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...
EXPECT LESS INTENSE STORMS OVERALL TODAY COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY
AS INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED. MOST STORMS FROM NEAR I-17/US 89
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. MINOR UPDATES TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COCONINO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE
TO LINGERING FORCING FROM A S/WV MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND INTO UTAH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SUBTLE RIDGING
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL S/WV SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO. THIS MAY SUPPRESS THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY...MAYBE
EVEN SOME OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.

THE DRYING WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR HAS NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED. A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WEST-MOVING OUTFLOW (EVEN SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) DEVELOPED OVER PHOENIX EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...FEATURES
SUCH AS THIS WILL PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DRYING. BEHIND
THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO...MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE
WEST SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE THURSDAY.

DESPITE THIS...MANY GFS MEMBERS STILL INSIST THAT THE BACKING FLOW
FROM HGHT FALLS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA
LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MANY MODELS
ARE ALSO FORECASTING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTRUSION OVER THE
WEEKEND.

IN SUMMARY...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO REALLY DRY THINGS
OUT FROM WEST AS WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNED. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
THE EASTERN ZONES MAY NEVER SEE A DECREASE AT ALL...WHEN COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. THESE TRENDS ARE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST
POP GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
WESTWARD. IFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
FORECAST NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TAYLOR/PETERSON
AVIATION...RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
808 AM MST TUE SEP 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SNOWFLAKE               34.52N 110.08W
08/31/2015  E0.75 INCH       NAVAJO             AZ   WEB REPORT

            PUBLIC REPORTED AN ESTIMATED 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
            IN 15 MINUTES IN SNOWFLAKE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500134

TRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1126 AM MST TUE SEP 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLOOD            10 N WINSLOW            35.17N 110.71W
08/31/2015                   NAVAJO             AZ   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED WATER FLOWING OVER INDN RTE 2 NORTH OF
            WINSLOW. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500135

TRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
116 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

AZZ012-015-012045-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
116 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY
UNTIL 145 PM MST...

AT 114 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SUNSET CRATER VOLCANO NATIONAL MONUMENT...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FLAGSTAFF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT...SUNSET
CRATER VOLCANO NATIONAL MONUMENT...BONITO CAMPGROUND AT SUNSET
CRATER...SUNSET CRATER VISITORS CENTER AND WUPATKI VISITORS CENTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 11152 3542 11165 3561 11141 3539 11122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 235DEG 12KT 3540 11151