Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

853 
WGUS75 KFGZ 012121
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
221 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

AZC005-012300-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-150901T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO-
221 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY...

AT 214 PM MST/314 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT SOME LIGHT 
RAIN WAS FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA WELL NORTH OF 
STATE HIGHWAY 98. 
 
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ONGOING AND WILL REMAIN OVER RURAL AREAS OF 
NORTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY. THOUGH MOST OF THE WATER FROM THIS 
STORM LIKELY IS FLOWING NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE POWELL...MOTORISTS ON 
STATE HIGHWAY 98 BETWEEN KAIBITO AND THE JUNCTION WITH US 160 SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO WATCH OUT FOR FLOODING AND EXERCISE CAUTION.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...SOUR WATER
WASH...NAVAJO CREEK...KAIBITO CREEK...SQUARE BUTTE WASH...CHAIYAHI
CREEK AND STARTING WATER WASH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

STAY AWAY OR BE SWEPT AWAY. RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS CAN BECOME
UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.

&&

LAT...LON 3685 11077 3662 11077 3653 11080 3654 11101
      3685 11094

$$

057 
WGUS75 KFGZ 012303
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
403 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

AZC005-012310-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-150901T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO-
403 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNING AREA NORTH AND EAST OF 
KAIBITO. WATER LEVELS ALONG WASHES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 98 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE. 

LAT...LON 3685 11077 3662 11077 3653 11080 3654 11101
      3685 11094

$$
JJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
948 AM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

&&

.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...
EXPECT LESS INTENSE STORMS OVERALL TODAY COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY
AS INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED. MOST STORMS FROM NEAR I-17/US 89
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. MINOR UPDATES TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COCONINO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE
TO LINGERING FORCING FROM A S/WV MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND INTO UTAH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SUBTLE RIDGING
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL S/WV SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO. THIS MAY SUPPRESS THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY...MAYBE
EVEN SOME OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.

THE DRYING WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR HAS NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED. A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WEST-MOVING OUTFLOW (EVEN SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) DEVELOPED OVER PHOENIX EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...FEATURES
SUCH AS THIS WILL PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DRYING. BEHIND
THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO...MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE
WEST SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE THURSDAY.

DESPITE THIS...MANY GFS MEMBERS STILL INSIST THAT THE BACKING FLOW
FROM HGHT FALLS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA
LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MANY MODELS
ARE ALSO FORECASTING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTRUSION OVER THE
WEEKEND.

IN SUMMARY...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO REALLY DRY THINGS
OUT FROM WEST AS WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNED. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
THE EASTERN ZONES MAY NEVER SEE A DECREASE AT ALL...WHEN COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. THESE TRENDS ARE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST
POP GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
WESTWARD. IFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
FORECAST NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TAYLOR/PETERSON
AVIATION...RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
808 AM MST TUE SEP 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SNOWFLAKE               34.52N 110.08W
08/31/2015  E0.75 INCH       NAVAJO             AZ   WEB REPORT

            PUBLIC REPORTED AN ESTIMATED 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
            IN 15 MINUTES IN SNOWFLAKE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500134

TRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1126 AM MST TUE SEP 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLOOD            10 N WINSLOW            35.17N 110.71W
08/31/2015                   NAVAJO             AZ   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED WATER FLOWING OVER INDN RTE 2 NORTH OF
            WINSLOW. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500135

TRC