Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1238 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

CLOUD COVER THINNING SOME ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION HOWEVER BASED
ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES DID LOWER MAX VALUES A FEW DEGREES.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES AS CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE
FAR EAST OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

REDUCED/REMOVED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS RAP/RUC/HRRR MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW LITTLE
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST UNTIL NEAR 18Z. KEPT THE SCT
POPS IN THE EAST WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM WARROAD TO
BEMIDJI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE INTERACTING WITH PWATS ABOVE AN INCH AND A
HALF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
DEPICTED WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR THE SD/WY/MT/ND
BORDER AREA...EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WITH ITS BROAD
850-500MB Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ALLOW A PROLONGED TIME
PERIOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VALLEY CITY
TO FARGO TO FOSSTON TO BAUDETTE LINE. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
PRODUCE NEIGHBORHOOD PROBS OF 50 PERCENT OF 3 INCHES IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. GIVEN THIS GUIDANCE WENT AND HEAD AND ADDED HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR THIS AREA WITH HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIALLY SLOW
MOVING STORMS CREATING A PROLONGED DURATION OF RAINFALL. SOME
STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE CATEGORIES AS A MARGINAL THREAT EXISTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200 WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SARGENT... RICHLAND...WILKIN COUNTIES AND ALL OF GRANT
COUNTY. THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR THE SFC LOW TRACK WHERE
ENHANCED LIFT AND BETTER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA DEPARTING IN THE MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS
INTO THE 80S AS CLOUDS SCT OUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH A SHORT WAVE
PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. TIMING OF CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEING DRY.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH THE GFS DRY AND THE ECMWF WET. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
TRANSITIONING TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
CIGS POSSIBLY RISING TO AROUND 3K TO 4K FT LATE AFTN...AND THEN
DIPPING BACK INTO MVFR AS RAIN/TS BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 200...HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CIGS COULD BRING REDUCED VSBY IN +SHRA / +TSRA...ESPECIALLY
AT BJI AND FAR WITH MUCH BETTER CONDS EXPECTED DVL-GFK-
TVF...ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL STILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY MVFR. WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES AND VFR BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
501 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-071015-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
501 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SARGENT...RICHLAND...WILKIN AND ALL OF GRANT COUNTY
AND A MARGINAL RISK FROM COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 200
CORRIDOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1100 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WASKISH                 48.16N 94.51W
08/06/2015  E4.00 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   POST OFFICE

            SEVERAL USPS CUSTOMERS REPORTED AROUND 4 INCHES OF RAIN
            IN LAST 90 MIN...ANOTHER HEAVY SHOWER JUST BEGAN

&&

PJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
307 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

MNZ029-030-040-NDZ053-062100-
WILKIN MN-GRANT MN-WEST OTTER TAIL MN-RICHLAND ND-
307 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILKIN...
SOUTHWESTERN OTTER TAIL...NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN
RICHLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 306 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SONORA...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAHPETON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FAIRMOUNT AROUND 315 PM CDT.
  CAMPBELL...DORAN AND TENNEY AROUND 330 PM CDT.
  NASHUA AROUND 340 PM CDT.
  WESTERN AROUND 350 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4614 9704 4632 9613 4596 9599 4596 9626
      4602 9627 4602 9657 4596 9657 4595 9699
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 260DEG 35KT 4609 9677

SPEICHER