Alert archive / Minnesota / Special Weather Statements in 2015
Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this special weather statement at Aug 6, 2015, 6:55 AM CDT for Lake of the Woods County, Minnesota. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 6, 2015, 6:55 AM CDT (11:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 6, 2015, 7:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 50 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
County Lake of the Woods County, MN
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 217 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1470 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 99 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 6, 6:47 AM CDT, 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 6, 6:47 AM CDT, 8 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 647 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 REDUCED/REMOVED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS RAP/RUC/HRRR MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW LITTLE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST UNTIL NEAR 18Z. KEPT THE SCT POPS IN THE EAST WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM WARROAD TO BEMIDJI. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE INTERACTING WITH PWATS ABOVE AN INCH AND A HALF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY DEPICTED WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR THE SD/WY/MT/ND BORDER AREA...EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WITH ITS BROAD 850-500MB Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ALLOW A PROLONGED TIME PERIOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VALLEY CITY TO FARGO TO FOSSTON TO BAUDETTE LINE. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE NEIGHBORHOOD PROBS OF 50 PERCENT OF 3 INCHES IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. GIVEN THIS GUIDANCE WENT AND HEAD AND ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THIS AREA WITH HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVING STORMS CREATING A PROLONGED DURATION OF RAINFALL. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE CATEGORIES AS A MARGINAL THREAT EXISTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200 WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SARGENT... RICHLAND...WILKIN COUNTIES AND ALL OF GRANT COUNTY. THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR THE SFC LOW TRACK WHERE ENHANCED LIFT AND BETTER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA DEPARTING IN THE MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS INTO THE 80S AS CLOUDS SCT OUT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH A SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. TIMING OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEING DRY. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS DRY AND THE ECMWF WET. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TRANSITIONING TO ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 TEMPO VSBY AT DVL IS MORNING UNTIL 15Z... OTHERWISE EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE VFR WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH AND SPREADING TO THE EAST...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH RAIN/THUNDER WILL EXPAND. FARGO SHOULD SEE THUNDER WITH THE APPROACH OF SFC LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VCTS OR VCSH ACTIVITY AT GFK...TVF AND BJI THIS EVENING WHERE COVERAGE/TIMING IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && UPDATE...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...JK/TG AVIATION...JK
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 6, 5:01 AM CDT, 1 hour 54 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 501 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-071015- WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS- WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE- EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN- SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN- WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER- PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON- GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT- RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY- 501 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SARGENT...RICHLAND...WILKIN AND ALL OF GRANT COUNTY AND A MARGINAL RISK FROM COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 200 CORRIDOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. JK
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 6, 6:55 AM CDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 655 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 MNZ006-061245- LAKE OF THE WOODS MN- 655 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY UNTIL 745 AM CDT... AT 654 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAUNCE...OR 41 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROSEAU...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... FAUNCE AROUND 705 AM CDT. PITT AROUND 745 AM CDT. LAT...LON 4845 9497 4856 9507 4877 9470 4853 9448 TIME...MOT...LOC 1154Z 245DEG 13KT 4854 9497 TG
The office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 6:57 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Lake of the Woods | 19 min |
| Aug 6, 11:01 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | FGF | Beltrami | 6 hr |
| Aug 6, 3:07 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | FGF | Wilkin | 53 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2015Every special weather statement in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.